Area Forecast Discussion
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072
FXUS62 KTAE 270047
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
847 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an area of high
pressure centered in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Most of the
troposphere in our region remained very dry, but there has been an
increase in shallow moisture in the boundary layer. With calm
winds and clear skies, there could be some patchy fog around dawn,
especially in the river valleys. Lows will be near average-
generally in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday] Patchy fog is expected around dawn Monday,
with mainly MVFR Vis restrictions likely at all sites except KDHN
(where the airmass is likely to be drier). Unrestricted Vis and
unlimited cigs are expected by mid Morning, lasting through the
day Monday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [251 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Stacked high pressure will move eastward across the area early this
week ahead of our next cold front. With clear skies and weak winds,
temperatures will rise to the mid to upper 80s on Monday, dipping to
the mid to upper 50s Monday night. As winds shift to the south and
cloud cover begins to increase ahead of our next cold front,
temperatures Tuesday will stay in the low to mid 80s during the day,
cooling to the upper 50s to low 60s overnight.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
An upper level trough crossing over the eastern CONUS will
help push through our next cold front on Wednesday. This next system
will have very little energy and will likely only bring us light
rain with the highest chances for rain (40%) in our northern zones.
Highs will be in the low 80s Wednesday as the front crosses through,
cooling to the 70s Thursday and Friday and cooling further into the
upper 60s over the weekend as a dry cold front pushes into the
southeast. Lows will be in the mid 50s Wednesday night, upper 40s to
low 50s Thursday night, and dipping further into the lower 40s over
the weekend.


.Marine...
Light and variable winds tonight will shift to the south and
increase to around 10 knots Monday ahead of our next cold front
which will cross the area on Wednesday. Winds will shift to north in
the wake of the cold front and will remain below headline criteria
through Thursday. After a dry cold front, winds may approach
advisory conditions next weekend.


.Fire Weather...
Fair and mild weather will continue through Tuesday, with no Red
Flag conditions expected. A cold front will move through the region
mid week, bringing with it a modest chance for rain.


.Hydrology...
Our next chance for rain is Wednesday, but rainfall totals are
expected to be below 0.5". With area rivers currently well below
flood stage and low QPF in the forecast, no flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  86  54  85  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   62  82  64  82  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        56  87  57  83  61 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        56  88  55  85  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      55  87  55  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    52  85  53  85  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  61  81  62  81  64 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE







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