Area Forecast Discussion
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280 FXUS62 KTAE 170221 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 921 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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In the wake of a cold front, dry air is spilling into the region. Some weak cold air advection will be responsible for the fall of temperatures to start the night, with marginal radiational cooling to end the night as winds calm. Expect middle 30s north and west of a line from Albany to Panama City, and upper 30s to around 40 degrees away from the coast elsewhere.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Thursday]... VFR conditions under clear skies and light winds will prevail through the TAF.
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&& .Prev Discussion [410 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well- established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds, plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this, PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as well at the end of the forecast period. .Marine... Winds around SCEC levels will be possible west of Apalachicola tonight, before the winds diminish through Thursday Night. On Friday, the winds will increase again with the approach of a low- pressure system with SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night or Saturday. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. .Hydrology... No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 39 65 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 44 61 46 65 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 38 61 39 64 45 / 0 0 0 10 10 Albany 37 63 36 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 39 63 38 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 40 66 38 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 44 62 46 65 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...LAMERS/HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS

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