Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
701 FXUS62 KTAE 170833 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 433 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
-- Changed Discussion --
EARLY THIS MORNING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS SITUATED ALONG THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA AT 07 UTC. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INITIAL CONDITIONS, BUT STILL DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT 5-6 HOURS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA; HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN RATES FOCUSED TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AFTER SUNRISE THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS INDICATING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. ONE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE LATER IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN (MORE CONVECTIVE THIS TIME) IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA BETWEEN 16 UTC AND 19 UTC. HOWEVER, PINPOINTING A SPECIFIC AREA WHERE RAIN IS MORE LIKELY OR RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BE HIGHER DURING THE DAYTIME IS TOUGHER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE LACK OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM. THEREFORE, WE KEPT A "LIKELY" POP IN THE FORECAST EVERYWHERE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON STRATIFORM PRECIP IN THE MORNING (RAIN, MORE STABLE) AND A TREND TOWARD CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON (SHOWERS AND STORMS, MORE UNSTABLE). HOWEVER, OUR GENERAL FEELING IS THAT RAIN AND STORMS WILL BECOME FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WITH TIME - NEARER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR APRIL AND WEAK FLOW BELOW 20,000 FT, ANY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ABUNDANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TODAY, WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]... THE UNUSUALLY WET PATTERN FOR APRIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. .LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ON MONDAY WITH POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE THAT COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY] IFR CIGS PREVAILED AT THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME, AND IFR-LIFR CIGS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TODAY, BUT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS INTO THE MVFR RANGE, BUT IFR-LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE AS THEY BECOME OFFSHORE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD, RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES IN LOCAL RIVER STAGES. IN PARTICULAR, THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE, APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE LOCAL ACTION STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WE EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT AN INCH IN NORTH FL, TO 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE- NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
TALLAHASSEE 77 66 84 69 81 / 70 30 40 50 70 PANAMA CITY 75 68 79 71 77 / 70 30 60 60 70 DOTHAN 72 63 79 67 77 / 70 30 60 80 70 ALBANY 73 62 79 66 78 / 60 30 40 60 70 VALDOSTA 76 64 84 67 81 / 70 30 40 30 70 CROSS CITY 79 66 84 67 83 / 60 30 40 30 60 APALACHICOLA 77 70 80 72 79 / 70 30 50 60 70
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.