Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240714

214 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The surface cold front is currently moving through the area and
will clear the area by around sunrise. Today will feature clearing
skies, breezy conditions, and seasonably cool temperatures with
daytime highs ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Amplified pattern is forecast to remain in place across the
country through Monday, with a trough over the eastern states.
For Sunday, the region will be between an exiting shortwave (from
Saturday) and an approaching shortwave. With a weak pressure
gradient tonight, temperatures should fall into the lower to mid
30s before moderating into the mid 60s Sunday afternoon.

A potent shortwave will dig into the base of the mean trough
Sunday night into Monday and push a reinforcing cold front through
the forecast area early Monday morning. With very limited deep
layer moisture, no precip is expected with the frontal passage,
but should see cooler temperatures during the day on Monday.
Expect highs ranging from the lower 60s in the southeast to the
lower 50s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The amplified pattern is forecast to continue through much of next
week with northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. This
will keep the weather dry through at least Thursday, with
temperatures running a couple of degrees cooler than normal for
late January. A front will approach the region late in the week,
with the potential for a few showers on Friday. With limited
return flow ahead of this front, significant rainfall seems
unlikely at this time.


[Through 12Z Sunday] The passage of a cold front will bring gusty
west to northwest winds and clearing skies today. MVFR to IFR
ceilings are expected through mid-morning with clearing skies and
VFR conditions for the remainder of the period.


Winds and seas will remain elevated this morning with Small Craft
Advisory conditions continuing until late afternoon. Following a
brief lull tonight and Sunday, winds and seas will increase again
Sunday night as another front pushes across the waters. Advisory
level winds are likely Sunday night through Monday afternoon.
Winds will diminish slightly by Monday night, but remain near
Exercise Caution levels through Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...
Dispersion values will be on the high side this afternoon as well
as Sunday afternoon with strong transport winds behind a cold
front. Otherwise, there are no other fire weather concerns.


A widespread 1.5-3" of rain fell across the area today, with
streaks of 3-6" roughly from Apalachicola to Madison. This has
caused sharp rises along some of our area rivers. Minor flooding
is forecast along the Withlacoochee and Aucilla rivers and is also
possible along the Shoal river today. Within the next week, more
minor flooding will be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee,
and Kinchafoonee rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  34  65  43  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   57  40  64  46  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        54  35  62  41  54 /   0   0   0  10   0
Albany        55  32  62  41  56 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      57  34  63  42  59 /  10   0   0  10  10
Cross City    61  32  64  44  61 /  10   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  59  40  62  49  61 /   0   0   0  10   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.

     Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST early this morning for Coastal

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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