Area Forecast Discussion
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728 FXUS62 KTAE 281430 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015 .Update...
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No updates to the previous forecast were necessary. See discussions below.
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&& .Prev Discussion [427 AM EST]...
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.Near Term [Through Today]... Dry northerly flow will prevail today with mostly sunny skies. Cold air advection will allow for slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... High pressure across the Mid Atlantic States tonight will extend down through the region resulting in a calm clear night with low temperatures dropping to around freezing across the inland areas. On Thursday, as this high pressure area moves eastward into the Atlantic, southerly flow will commence with warmer temperatures into the mid to upper 60s. A dry cold front will move through the region on Thursday night into Friday. Drier air and somewhat cooler temperatures will return for Friday. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Through Saturday evening, the long term period will be rather quiet with high pressure in control. By Saturday night, this high will shift eastward ahead of a storm system developing across the Central Plains. The models have been more insistent that this system will be a bit stronger than indicated a few days ago. In fact, the models suggest that the surface low should track well to the west of the region bringing our region into the warm sector. At this point, instability looks limited, so only have included a mention of isolated thunder with the system on Sunday evening when the cold front moves through. Thereafter, the models diverge on how the remaining frontal zone is handled across the Gulf of Mexico. Both the Euro and GFS develop a low along this frontal feature Tuesday evening, but the models differ in their position. For now, a slight chance of rain Tue-Wed seems appropriate until better model agreement emerges. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light winds. .Marine... Winds and seas will continue to subside today as high pressure moves near the marine area. Generally tranquil conditions will prevail through Thursday afternoon. A cold front will move through the marine area early Friday morning signaling an increase in offshore flow that will eventually build to cautionary levels over the weekend. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days. Dispersion values may be fairly low this afternoon as well as Thursday afternoon. .Hydrology... Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has crested just about through Southern Grady County and will be cresting later today at Concord. The river may briefly go above flood stage at Concord today and eventually exceed flood stage further downstream at Havana on Thursday. The Withlacoochee River is cresting above Valdosta as is the Little River at Hahira. The crest values at these sites suggest an eventual crest in the 18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta. The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday, with models suggesting a widespread 0.5-1.0 inch rainfall amounts across the area. Though these amounts are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will continue to help keep area streamflows above normal as we move into February.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 60 33 66 48 64 / 0 0 0 10 0 Panama City 60 41 65 50 61 / 0 0 0 10 0 Dothan 56 35 65 47 59 / 0 0 0 10 0 Albany 54 33 64 46 59 / 0 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 56 33 66 46 61 / 0 0 0 10 0 Cross City 60 32 68 45 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 59 41 64 51 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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