Area Forecast Discussion
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975
FXUS62 KTAE 191852
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
252 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The nearly stacked low pressure system over NE FL/SE GA this
afternoon will continue to slowly depart ENE into the coastal
waters tonight. At the same time...surface high pressure will
nose Swd from Ern Canada into the GA. The result will be
strengthening NE low level flow which will transport ample wrap
around moisture from Atlc back towards our CWA in the form of low
stratus and possibly some drizzle especially for our Ern counties.
PWATs hover near 1 inch overnight especially east of Apalachicola
River. HI RES guidance show last drizzle/-R exiting NEWD of our
CWA around 03Z and this looks reasonable. Will go with 0-30% SW-NE
POP gradient down to zero everywhere after 03z. Model soundings
all show strengthening NNE flow to H8 then NW flow above which
will yield NNE winds around 10 KT and make it difficult for any
fog to develop especially Wrn half of CWA. Low temps from near 50
in less cloudy SE AL to low 50s elsewhere.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Low clouds may linger into Sunday in association with wrap-around
moisture around the departing area of low pressure east of the
area. Otherwise, look for deep layer ridging, clearing skies and
seasonal temps to start the work week.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] Widespread IFR to low end MVFR CIGS and MVFR
VSBYS (especially at KABY/KVLD/KTLH) will continue through this
afternoon with only a slight improvement this eve. Patchy -DZ and
even a small chance of Shwrs are possible especially at VLD during
rest of this aftn. Surface winds will be N 10 TO 15 KT with higher
gusts then will remain at or above 10 KT overnight and into Sunday
so anything beyond patchy predawn light fog unlikely. However...
under NE low level flow...IFR to LIFR cigs are likely again for
tonight. After around 14z...CIGS will lift to MVFR and likely VFR
at DHN/ECP.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will start the night at cautionary levels, but a
gradual decreasing trend is expected as the night progresses. No
major systems are expected to affect the area through next week,
and winds are expected to stay generally around 15 knots or less
after tonight.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Cloudy and cool conditions will continue into Sunday morning...
especially ERN areas. Red Flag conditions are not expected through
the upcoming work week.

&&

.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with higher
amounts of 4 to 5.5 inches in Southeast Alabama and Walton and
Holmes counties in Florida. These rainfall amounts in additional to
rainfall from earlier in the week have led to a rise on rivers with
many area rivers in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is
expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along
the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage:
St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   52  70  51  79  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  71  56  76  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        50  73  52  79  57 /  10   0   0   0  10
Albany        51  72  51  79  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  70  50  79  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    53  75  52  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  69  55  74  58 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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