Area Forecast Discussion
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421
FXUS62 KTAE 171404
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As the trough digs deeper the front will push through bringing lower
dewpoints. We are already seeing some of this drier air behind a
line of stratus that moved through this morning. The 12Z sounding
was much drier with a PWAT of 1.72 inches compared to 2.29 inches
yesterday. Rain chances are much lower than yesterday with the
highest being 20-30 percent in the Big Bend. Highs will be in the
low 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions with light winds are expected
at all the terminals through the remainder of the period with the
one exception of a period of MVFR visibility at VLD after 09Z. Most
of today`s convection should remain south and east of TLH and VLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [258 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The upper level trough with axis along or near the eastern seaboard
will continue to deepen through the period with much drier air
overspreading the region through Thursday. Another weak frontal
boundary will push down from the north on Friday as well as an
increase in deep layer moisture as an upper low begins to close off
east of the NE FL/SE GA coast. Will reintroduce rain chances across
the area on Friday with the best chance (30-40%) across the coastal
waters and SE Big Bend. Despite the passage of the cold front
earlier this week, max temps will continue at or just above seasonal
levels. Lows both nights will be in the mid to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

By Friday night, the mid level pattern begins to stagnate as models
show an upper low cutting off just south of the southeast U.S coast
as a weak ridge builds across the Mid Atlantic States. This type of
pattern will keep partly to mostly skies in place through the
weekend with moderate easterly flow. Low end rain chances can be
expected, especially across the eastern portions of the region.

Late Sunday and into Monday the pattern across the CONUS becomes
highly amplified with a deepening trough across the Eastern US
and a large ridge across the western states. As this pattern
amplifies, the models diverge in whether a cold front will make
its way into the Gulf Coast States and possibly beyond. The 16/12z
Euro stalls the boundary across our region as the main mid and
upper level support lifts out into New England whereas the 16/00z
and 16/12z GFS had some degree of frontal passage late in the
period. Climatology in late September would argue against a front
clearing the forecast area, so will lean closer on a solution
supported by the latest Euro for late in the period.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected across the marine
area through the remainder of the week. Winds will shift to easterly
and increase to moderate levels on Saturday as high pressure builds
down the Atlantic seaboard.


.Fire Weather...

Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.


.Hydrology...

The Florida Panhandle saw heavy rain yesterday with totals of 2 to
4 inches, even up to 9 inches at one location. While there is a
chance of rain again tomorrow, QPF will be light and should not
have a significant effect on rivers which are all below flood
stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  69  92  68  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Panama City   89  71  90  71  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        91  66  89  65  89 /  10  10   0  10  20
Albany        91  66  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      90  67  92  66  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Cross City    88  70  92  69  88 /  30  10  10  10  30
Apalachicola  88  74  89  73  85 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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