333
FXUS62 KTAE 160126
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
926 PM EDT Wed May 15 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A surface high pressure continues to dominate the area keeping the
weather calm and winds light.  Scattered high clouds will begin to
move into the area, and temperatures tonight will be slightly cooler
than normal, in the upper 50s to low 60s. Other than a small
adjustment to the minimum temperatures, no significant changes
have been made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The low amplitude upper ridge over the SE CONUS will flatten as
the closed upper low currently east of the Texas panhandle lifts
into the Missouri Valley Thursday. This feature will weaken into
an open trough as it moves across the Midwest and into the Ohio
Valley Thursday night through Friday night. Onshore flow will
continue with the surface ridge axis cutting through the northern
Gulf. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm each
afternoon. Will show 20% PoP for portions of the tri-state region
Friday and Friday night. Near seasonal temperatures are expected
with mid to upper 80s for highs and upper 50s to lower 60s for
lows.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
The aforementioned shortwave trough will pass to the north of the
area Saturday. Then, weak troughing will be present along or just
off the eastern seaboard Sunday through mid week. At the surface,
an east to west ridge axis will remain in place through the period
with the axis wavering back and forth from our coastal waters to
just inland. Isolated convection will be possible each afternoon
along and ahead of the sea breeze in the warm moist environment.
Afternoon max temps will be near seasonal norms in the upper 80s,
with cooler upper 70s to lower 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows
will be slightly above normal in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period.
North winds will become calm overnight and become light around
15Z. As with the previous forecast, LAMP guidance suggests MVFR
conditions right before daybreak at TLH and VLD, but other higher
res models do not show this so it is left out of the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge of high pressure pressure will remain in place
over the waters through the weekend. This high will keep winds
light and primarily onshore with a slight enhancement in wind
speeds each afternoon near the coast in association with the sea
breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The low level airmass is forecast to slowly moisten over the next
few days. This will keep durations of critical humidity below
headline criteria, with no red flag conditions expected. High
pressure will yield warm temperatures and high mixing heights over
the next few days. This will result in elevated dispersion values
over the Florida Panhandle especially on Thursday. Red flag concerns
are not anticipated into the upcoming work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no concerns on area rivers and creeks for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   57  87  62  89  62 /  0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   64  84  65  82  66 /  0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        61  86  63  88  64 /  0   0   0  20  10
Albany        61  88  63  90  63 /  0   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      59  87  61  88  63 /  0   0   0  20  20
Cross City    57  86  61  88  62 /  0   0   0  20  20
Apalachicola  62  82  64  83  64 /  0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION...Wool/Heller
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Barry
MARINE...DVD/Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Block
HYDROLOGY...DVD