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163 FXUS62 KTAE 200243 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1043 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Yet another very active day across the Tri-State area with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Many of these storms produced some of the most numerous cloud to ground strikes of the season thus far (causing plenty of power outages), along with very heavy rainfall and minor flooding in a few low lying and poor drainage areas. Some of the storms were also severe with damaging wind gusts that have been compiled in a summary LSR (Local Storm Report). Most of this convection has come to an end except for some lingering showers over SE AL and the western FL Panhandle. Used 3 hr PoP groups until 06 UTC to handle this, with silent 10s still anticipated after 06 UTC overnight. Areas of fog and especially low clouds will possible late tonight, but confidence was not high enough to introduce into the grids at this time.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Thursday] Evening convection is diminishing and should end by 03z. Overnight as skies clear expect vsby/cig restrictions to develop at most sites. Potential exists for IFR/LIFR conditions at VLD/TLH around sunrise. After daybreak, restrictions should end quickly with VFR by 13z. TSRA coverage expected to be much less on Wednesday. Seabreeze storms primarily will affect TLH in the afternoon where a VCTS group was used.
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&& .Prev Discussion [146 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday Night]... As a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf coast moves inland, we will quickly start to see drier, hotter weather. With the sea-breeze still coming into play, we will still likely see scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms, staying mostly in north Florida, but the chances are lower than they normally are for this time of year. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s across the area Wednesday, mostly upper 90s on Thursday. Although the airmass in place will be relatively dry, we`ll still be humid enough to make the heat feel even more uncomfortable- heat index values will rise to the 100-105 degree range Wednesday, 104-108 Thursday. Lows will only be in the mid 70s. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... Conditions are expected to stay hot and relatively dry through early next week as a strong ridging of high pressure builds inland and stays in place until it begins to weaken late this weekend. A long stretch of hot days is on tap with highs expected to reach the upper 90s Thursday through Sunday, decreasing only slightly to the mid 90s Monday and Tuesday when rain chances increase again after the ridge begins to weaken. .Marine... With high pressure over the northern Gulf, winds will generally be from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less, with surges along the coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings. Waves are expected to remain around 2 feet or less through the period. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .Hydrology... Rainfall totals through the week are expected to be less than an inch with localized higher amounts possible. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 96 75 98 76 / 40 30 20 30 20 Panama City 81 92 78 94 78 / 20 20 10 20 20 Dothan 70 96 75 98 75 / 40 20 20 20 20 Albany 70 97 75 99 75 / 30 20 20 20 10 Valdosta 71 96 74 98 74 / 50 20 20 30 20 Cross City 76 94 75 96 74 / 20 30 20 30 20 Apalachicola 80 92 76 93 78 / 10 20 10 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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