Area Forecast Discussion
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682 FXUS62 KTAE 221832 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 232 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The upper low has moved to a position near Mobile this afternoon. At the surface, a stationary front meandered across our SE AL zones eastward to near Brunswick. A weak low can be seen spinning on visible satellite imagery near Albany. Surprisingly as of 18z, only isolated to scattered convection has developed so far. The most concentrated area was currently along the sea breeze in the Florida Panhandle. This activity will quickly diminish shortly after sunset with skies becoming partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog will once again develop especially in and around the Valdosta region and areas that receive rain. Lows will be around 70 to the lower 70s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... The period commences aloft with Wrn Atlc ridge building Wwd into the local area. In response, mid-upper level low over Ern LA Wed will continue to retrograde WWD along the Gulf coast and eventually get sheared out near coastal Louisiana or Ern TX by Thursday. This will allow another trough to begin to dig into the region from the NW which could provide some additional large scale forcing for storms. At surface, Wwd progression of upper ridge allows surface reflection to also build Wwd across Cntrl Gulf of Mex. All this increases local flow and shifts it to more WLY (Wed) then WSW (Thurs) sfc-mid levels with PWATs dropping to around 1.5-1.7 inches or closer to seasonal norms. With drier air moving especially on Wed, POPs will be below climo but enough moisture and instability exists with diurnal Gulf seabreeze for 20-30% W-E Wed and 30-40% Thurs. Weak steering flow would favor heavy rain with any boundary clashes. Temperatures should be warmer than in recent days, with highs in the mid 90s likely, a little higher on Wed. Lows in the low-mid 70s. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The region will be dominated by high pressure at the sfc and an upper level ridge through Sunday. As a result, expect only a slight chance for afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms. Late Monday an upper level trough moves in and increases afternoon/evening precip chances for the remainder of the forecast period. A stationary boundary is expected to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition to the increased rain chance expect abundant cloud cover. Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] Scattered showers and TSTMS will continue to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and may briefly impact each terminal. After the convection diminishes this evening, patchy fog will develop with with the best chance of occurring at the VLD terminal. Went with prevailing MVFR vsby at VLD after 09z.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas should be relatively calm during the period, winds generally 10 knots or less and seas generally 2 feet or less.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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High dispersion values are forecast across the Florida zones Wednesday afternoon and the entire tri-stare region on Thursday. Aside from the high dispersion, there are no fire weather concerns for the remainder of the week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The Shoal River at Mossy Head briefly approached flood stage early yesterday morning, but the river levels are now falling. There will likely be some heavy rain rates today, and the storm motion will be unusually slow (around 5 kt). This would suggest at least some potential for flooding. However, there appears to be one negative factor that will keep the risk of flooding rather low- the influx of dry air aloft from the south and west. This should help dampen deep moist convection somewhat, preventing updrafts from persisting over any one location for too long. We think the probability of exceeding local flash flood guidance today is about 5% (within 25mi of a point), which is not high enough for a watch.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 71 95 74 94 73 / 10 30 20 40 20 Panama City 75 90 76 89 77 / 10 20 20 30 20 Dothan 72 93 73 93 73 / 20 20 20 40 20 Albany 72 94 73 94 73 / 20 30 20 40 20 Valdosta 70 96 72 94 73 / 20 30 30 40 20 Cross City 70 94 73 93 73 / 10 30 20 30 20 Apalachicola 74 88 76 88 77 / 10 20 20 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...BLOCK LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

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