Area Forecast Discussion
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357
FXUS62 KTAE 291833
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Noon EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico
about 60 miles offshore. Precip Water values across much of AL & GA
were 50% below climatology, and this unusually dry airmass will
continue to overspread our forecast area through tonight. Light
winds and dry air will help low temperatures cool to the mid 60s
(slightly warmer at the beaches and in the cities). Interestingly,
if the low at Tallahassee reaches our forecast of 66 deg tonight, it
would be a new record low for July 30.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] A rare period (for summertime along the Gulf
Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least Wednesday.
VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW 5 to 10 KT
today, and 5 KT or less overnight through Wednesday morning.

&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD




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