Area Forecast Discussion
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577 FXUS62 KTAE 012014 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 314 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 1 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across MS. Local radars showed a few, sporadic light showers across the region, and this may continue into tonight (20% PoP) as weak isentropic ascent lingers. We expect the low clouds to continue overnight, with areas of fog developing after midnight. Lows will be above average- in the 50s. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... It continues to be a challenging day time temperature forecast with the model guidance showing the cold wedge hanging on through at least 15 UTC. Given the models relatively poor performance with Sunday`s temperatures, prefer to follow more of a persistence approach in keeping the wedge around until at least late afternoon when it seems to make sense that enough mixing could then take place - along with surface winds picking up more of a southerly component. With this in mind, Southwestern Georgia would likely be the last place to see warmer temperatures, so have departures from guidance as high as 10 degrees in portions of the area on Monday. Essentially, this has highs in the lower 60s for our northern zones to as warm as the upper 70s in the Southeast Florida Big Bend. Obviously, should the cold wedge and cloud cover scatter out quicker than predicted, warmer high temperatures would occur. By Tuesday, a building mid level ridge and a warm front lifting north into the Tennessee Valley will erode whatever cool air is left, and deliver a warm, but mostly cloudy day across the region with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Only light showers are expected across the northern portion of the area near to the surface warm front. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Continued warm weather will start the extended period with southerly flow in place for Wednesday. High temperatures may end up approaching 80 degrees in some spots. By Thursday, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a chance of light rain and much cooler air. Though rainfall amounts will be light, guidance this cycle indicates this frontal zone stalling across the forecast area through much of the weekend, yielding cool and unsettled conditions. There is some disagreement on whether a southern stream impulse late in the weekend will interact with this boundary bringing a round of heavy rain to the area by Sunday night. For now, will show 30 percent PoPs that far out given limited model agreement in this scenario. Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be well below normal for afternoon highs and just a couple degrees below normal for overnight lows.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] Low cigs are likely to persist through Monday morning. We expect predominantly IFR cigs for the remainder of today, except for occasional MVFR cigs at KTLH and KVLD. Vis will be MVFR to VFR. Conditions will worsen overnight, with cigs and Vis falling to LIFR levels at most sites by 06z. Vis will improve to MVFR by late Monday morning, but cigs will likely remain at IFR levels through early Monday afternoon.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will continue to decrease across the marine area this evening and remain low through Tuesday. By Wednesday, southerly flow will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This front will move through the area on Thursday, shifting to winds to offshore and increasing to advisory levels through Friday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. However, due to a combination of low transport winds and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low on Monday. More typical dispersion indices will return on Tuesday.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta late this evening. No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 55 70 59 75 58 / 10 10 10 10 10 Panama City 56 68 59 69 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 Dothan 52 67 58 76 61 / 20 10 20 10 10 Albany 50 61 57 76 59 / 20 10 30 10 10 Valdosta 54 69 59 78 60 / 10 10 20 10 10 Cross City 58 77 58 77 60 / 10 10 10 10 10 Apalachicola 58 67 60 68 62 / 10 10 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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