Area Forecast Discussion
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870
FXUS62 KTAE 230136
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Despite the continuation of the cool air advection, the projected
positioning of the Sfc ridge overnight no longer appears ideal
for radiational cooling. Therefore, split the difference on
overnight low temps with the previous package and the latest local CAM
run which essentially raises minimum temps about 3-4 degrees
across the board. Tomorrow night, on the other hand, should be more
favorable for radiational cooling with the ridge building in
closer to overhead.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] More of the same with the Taf sites, as VFR
conditions with clear skies and light winds will continue to
persist for at least the next 24 hrs at all of the terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a
short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis
will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high
centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a
position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern
will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We
will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period,
although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages.
Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s
north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower
40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the
mid to upper 40s for Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the
period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and
may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below
headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then
persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering
to the east by Monday.


.Fire Weather...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of
high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer
durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values
could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag
conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over
the next few days.


.Hydrology...
There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t
rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  77  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        43  74  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        43  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  75  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  76  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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