Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 280018
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Current fcst is essentially on track for the remainder of tonight,
just made a few tweaks to increase Pops over the Coastal waters as
well as the SE FL Big Bend. Also, while winds and seas over the
marine area have generally fallen below cautionary levels, the
pressure gradient is still running a bit tighter than originally
expected. Therefore, did bump up seas about 1 foot across the
board to account for the slightly stronger easterly winds.
[Through 00Z Monday] MVFR level Cigs have dominated the terminals
for much of the day today, and despite a few breaks in the low
clouds early this evening, expect them to return to the terminals
quite shortly. May even see a period of IFR Cigs late tonight, and
included this potential at all sites except ECP. On Sunday, expect
the rain with embedded thunderstorms to continue to gradually move
further onshore, which may bring IFR Vis restrictions by the
afternoon where the heavier rain does fall.
.Prev Discussion [323 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Deep layer moisture will continue to be pulled northward across
the Tri-state area as the upper trough approaches. Additionally,
models are consistent in showing the development of a surface low
along the central Gulf coast Sunday and lifting to the east-
northeast over our FA Sunday night through Monday. This feature
will further enhance convection along with the threat for locally
heavy rainfall, especially across our SE AL and Florida zones. QPF
amounts through the short term period are in the 1-3" range with
isolated amounts up to 6" possible. For this reason, we have
decided to issue a Flash flood Watch effective at 06z for all of our
Florida and SE AL zones. Temperatures will be at or above climo.
.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The 12z GFS and 00z EURO are in fairly good agreement on the timing
of the exiting upper trough and surface low Monday night through
Tuesday. However, the GFS is quicker to dry us with deep northwest
flow. Will keep a slight PoP in our easternmost zones on Wednesday
to account for this. Otherwise, deep moisture begins to return to
the region as early Thursday ahead of the next upper trough and
associated cold front. The front is forecast to push into our CWA on
Saturday. Expect temperatures to run near normal.
Light to moderate Easterly flow will gradually shift to become
southerly by Monday ahead of a weak area of low pressure. Winds
may briefly reach exercise caution levels tonight but will but
now will keep under headline criteria. Winds are expected to be in
the 10 to 15 knots range for Sunday and Monday, but rather stormy
conditions are also likely during that time with locally higher
winds and seas near thunderstorms. A decrease in winds and seas is
expected for next week.
With plenty of deep tropical moisture headed our way during the next
couple of days, Wet Flag conditions will be in effect.
General rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely across the
forecast area through Monday, except 3 to 4 inches with locally
higher amounts around 6 inches possible in a short period of time
along the panhandle coast. These amounts are not expected to
result in any river flooding due to low flows from the recent dry
summer, although rises are certainly expected. However, isolated
instances of flash flooding cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday
into Monday, mainly along the panhandle coast and in the typically
vulnerable urban and low-lying areas. If confidence continues to
increase in this scenario, then a flash flood watch could be
issued as early as this afternoon for Sunday.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 84 71 87 72 / 40 80 70 70 20
Panama City 73 83 74 86 70 / 50 90 70 60 20
Dothan 68 83 69 84 66 / 30 90 70 60 20
Albany 68 84 69 86 68 / 20 80 70 80 30
Valdosta 70 85 70 86 70 / 30 60 60 70 30
Cross City 72 86 70 86 70 / 60 60 60 70 30
Apalachicola 74 83 75 86 72 / 60 90 70 60 20
FL...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Sunday through Sunday
evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-
AL...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening