Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270846

446 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Dangerous Heat Indices Possible Today and Monday...
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Monday Afternoon and Evening...

[Through 12z Monday] Some low ceilings and patchy fog with MVFR
to IFR conditions have developed this morning with a very soupy
airmass in place. Conditions will improve rapidly to VFR after
sunrise. Although an isolated thunderstorm is possible this
afternoon, the chances for convection are well below average for
this time of year with mid-level dry air in place and appear too
low for any mention in the TAFs at this time.


.Prev Discussion [356 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Today]...
The main issue for today will be the heat. Both the CAM ensemble
and MOS guidance have very low PoPs across the area today. Quite a
bit of mid-level dry air is expected to put the kibosh on most of
the afternoon convection with only a 20 PoP across the area. As a
result, high temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 90s
across most of the area with an isolated 100 degree reading
possible. Dewpoints are expected to remain elevated this afternoon
with low to mid 70s across most of the area. This will bring heat
indices up to the 108 degree threshold needed for a heat advisory
across a large portion of the area, we issued a heat advisory for
most of the area.

.Short Term [Tonight through Tuesday]...
A deepening upper trough over the eastern half of the country will
push an unusually strong deep summer cold front south into the
forecast area on Monday. Ahead of the front, a very hot and humid
airmass will be in place, with temperatures rising into the upper
90s Monday afternoon. Coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70s,
expect to see heat index values exceed 105 degrees over a large
portion of the area, with values as high as 110 degrees possible
in Florida. Another heat advisory may be needed for Monday

As the front approaches the northern CWA border Monday afternoon,
expect to see a swath of southward moving thunderstorms develop.
With such a hot and juicy low-level airmass, expect to see CAPE
values approach 4000 j/kg Monday afternoon ahead of the front.
When coupled with a modest increase in mid-level northwesterly
flow, expect to see a few of these storms reach severe limits,
with damaging straight-line winds and large hail being the primary
threats. With the aid of the front, the line of convection will
likely remain active through Monday evening as it crosses
the FL/GA line.

The front will push to near a Valdosta to Panama City line by
Tuesday morning, likely slowing its southward progress through the
day. A much drier airmass will push in behind the front, with
dewpoints dropping well into the 60s. Temperatures will be
somewhat cooler as well, with highs ranging from around 90 degrees
along the northern border, to lower to mid 90s along the coast.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue south of the front, across
the central and eastern Big Bend.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement in the
amplification of the Eastern CONUS trough through the long term
period. While there are some slight differences on timing and
magnitude of the cooler and drier air behind this frontal
boundary, there is good agreement now that the front will clear to
the south. Dry conditions should be in place across the region
from Tuesday evening into Thursday. This interval will also
feature some cool overnight lows, possibly dipping into the lower
60s in the colder spots across Southern Alabama. Even in the
Florida Big Bend, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings
should drop into the upper 60s or just a bit cooler. Records for
this period at Tallahassee are as follows:

July 30 - 67 (1927)
July 31 - 63 (1896)
Aug 1 - 64 (1993)

By Thursday afternoon, moisture will begin to increase once again
across the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the
main upper trough moves into the forecast area. Unsettled
conditions look to return Friday and into next weekend with rain
chances increasing considerably. While overnight lows will return
to climatological norms for early August, daytime temperatures
will still be below normal due to plenty of convective activity.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the south
and an approaching cold front to the north will tighten over the
next two days, leading to a modest increase in westerly winds
across the coastal waters. Winds will reach exercise caution
levels at times through early Tuesday. Winds will then slowly
diminish and become offshore through the middle of the week.

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
although high dispersion values are expected this afternoon across
the inland Florida big bend and across most of the area away from
the coast on Monday.

The Shoal River at Mossy Head has reached bank full stage but is
not forecast to reach flood stage. All other area rivers are below
bank full stage. Thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall
the next few days but widespread impacts are not expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   97  78  96  75  94 /  20  10  40  40  30
Panama City   90  80  92  78  91 /  20  10  40  40  20
Dothan        97  76  97  72  91 /  20  10  50  40  10
Albany        99  77  96  72  91 /  20  10  50  40  10
Valdosta     100  76  96  73  93 /  20  10  40  40  30
Cross City    93  76  94  76  93 /  20  10  30  30  50
Apalachicola  91  79  91  79  90 /  20  10  30  30  40


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM
     CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for Baker-
     Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.




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