Area Forecast Discussion
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465
FXUS62 KTAE 201944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional radar mosaics do reveal some isolated showers over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico near a low-level convergence zone, as was
expected with this morning`s forecast. These showers should
continue through the afternoon and may clip some land areas near
Apalachicola before diminishing in the early evening. A continued
weak pressure pattern with dry northwest flow aloft should lead to
a dry night with diminishing cloud cover. Subsidence combined with
clearing skies could lead to some patchy fog in a few areas, and
that was included in the forecast. Otherwise, lows should be
mostly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in the far
northwest and west parts of the forecast area.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] While some patchy fog cannot be ruled out at
any of the terminals overnight, confidence is not high enough to
include it in the TAFs yet other than a brief period of MVFR VIS at
VLD around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.


&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD




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