Area Forecast Discussion
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061 FXUS62 KTAE 290844 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 344 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Surface high pressure will remain the dominant feature locally today with dry conditions. The center of the high will slide east of the area by the end of the day as a weak cold front approaches. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid 60s are expected. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary. Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent freezing temperatures. As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on Saturday. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area. Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night through Wednesday. Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the next storm system stays largely to the south of the region, tracking across the Florida Peninsula. The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth. Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain chances for the Florida counties.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light winds.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting in increasing southerly flow.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage, just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last week`s rainfall is expected. Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 64 45 63 35 64 / 0 10 0 0 0 Panama City 62 50 60 39 59 / 0 10 0 0 0 Dothan 64 45 58 34 60 / 0 10 0 0 0 Albany 63 43 59 33 59 / 0 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 46 62 35 64 / 0 10 10 0 0 Cross City 66 44 66 36 66 / 0 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 62 51 64 41 59 / 0 10 10 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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