Area Forecast Discussion
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715 FXUS62 KTAE 230254 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 954 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Lead shortwave is helping to enhance isentropic lift across the region this evening, with a large area of light to moderate rain marching north across the forecast area. Developing warm front remain well south over the central Gulf. However, this boundary will begin to lift north overnight, reaching the northern Gulf Coast after sunrise. North of the front, the widespread rain will continue, with occasional embedded thunderstorms. No major changes need for the forecast with categorical PoPs largely in place already. Rain may occasionally be heavy, but rather dry antecedent conditions should limit overall flood threat.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Monday] Cigs will continue to fall through the overnight hours as a large area of rain lifts north across the region. Expect terminals to be close to or below IFR conditions for most of the night. Cigs likely to lift during the morning, from south to north, as a warm front lifts north. Thunderstorms may then impact the terminals from west to east during the afternoon and evening.
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&& .Prev Discussion [416 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... By dawn on Sunday, the aforementioned area of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms will be steadily moving north through the region. At the same time, the aforementioned northern stream anomaly will be quickly approaching. The core of this system will likely pass just northwest of us, through central MS & AL, into TN. However, due to the strength and size of this system 40-50kts of deep layer shear will still be able to reach the Tri- State region, coincident with with a recovering boundary layer yielding around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and a strong LLJ. While there may be some discrete convection ahead of the main squall line, the greatest threat for more widespread severe coverage will occur along along the expected squall line forecast to enter our Panhandle and Alabama counties around mid afternoon. Both damaging thunderstorm winds and tornadoes should be expected with any discrete development and along the squall. The severe threat will gradually diminish through the late afternoon and evening as the squall progresses east; with a much lower threat for severe weather east of a line from Tallahassee to Albany as both wind shear and instability wane. A weak front will bisect the region through the day on Monday as deep layer southerly flow impedes the forward progress of the system. Showers and isolated thunderstorms should be expected Sunday night through Monday, especially along and east of a line from Panama City through Albany. However, these storms are not expected to become severe. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The amplifying northern stream longwave trough will finally push the surface front and any moisture out of the region by Wednesday evening. In its wake, dry conditions with highs in the lower to middle 60s and lows in the middle to upper 30s are anticipated through the remainder of the week. .Marine... A very strong low pressure system will yield solid advisory conditions through Sunday night. On Sunday, frequent gusts to Gale force are expected. Thus have kept the Gale warning in place. Strong to severe storms will also be possible across the northeast Gulf late tonight, but more likely on Sunday. While advisory conditions will come to an end on Monday, expect cautionary conditions to continue until another front increases winds again Tuesday into Wednesday. .Fire Weather... Wet weather will minimize any fire weather risk through Sunday. By Monday, a drier airmass will move into the region but humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels. .Hydrology... Periods of heavy rain will move through the region tonight through Sunday night, resulting in total rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with local amounts up to 4 inches possible. This will cause rises on smaller creeks and rivers next week. Since rivers are all very low at this time, the only river that we are expecting to get to minor flood stage is the Kinchafoonee River at Dawson, possibly by mid week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 63 76 64 79 49 / 100 100 50 40 20 Panama City 63 74 64 75 51 / 100 100 50 30 10 Dothan 59 74 59 73 44 / 100 100 40 20 10 Albany 60 74 61 75 46 / 100 100 50 30 10 Valdosta 60 77 67 78 50 / 100 80 70 50 20 Cross City 63 78 67 78 53 / 100 60 60 50 20 Apalachicola 66 74 66 76 53 / 100 100 50 50 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to Midnight CST Sunday Night for Coastal Bay-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

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