Area Forecast Discussion
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156 FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...
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.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]... A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]... AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. .LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]... A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. .MARINE... BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. .FIRE WEATHER... MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS, BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE 20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND. .HYDROLOGY... ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 70 43 65 41 69 / 50 0 0 10 0 PANAMA CITY 67 47 61 46 65 / 30 0 0 10 0 DOTHAN 63 40 60 39 66 / 20 0 10 10 0 ALBANY 65 39 60 39 64 / 30 0 0 10 0 VALDOSTA 71 41 61 39 66 / 50 0 0 10 0 CROSS CITY 74 45 66 42 70 / 70 0 10 10 0 APALACHICOLA 71 46 66 46 68 / 40 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...WESTON LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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