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288
FXUS62 KTAE 160622
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
222 AM EDT Thu May 16 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
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An upper ridge over the deep south will slide to the east today as
a trough approaches the Mississippi River. While deep layer
moisture will be on the increase, it will still remain low enough
to prevent much in the way of shower activity, especially with the
lack of any significant forcing. Temperatures will reach the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon, very close to seasonal norms.
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&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
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Weak upper level troughing will move across the area through the
short term and continue weakening as it does so. At the surface,
weak onshore flow will continue. Only very low rain chances on the
order of 10-20% are expected through Saturday with little in the
way of lift to generate convection. Afternoon highs are expected
to creep up into the upper 80s to near 90 on Friday and Saturday
with overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
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Weak troughing will be present along or just off the eastern
seaboard Sunday through mid week. At the surface, an east to west
ridge axis will remain in place through the period with the axis
wavering back and forth from our coastal waters to just inland.
Isolated convection will be possible each afternoon along and
ahead of the sea breeze in the warm moist environment. Afternoon
max temps will be near seasonal norms in the upper 80s, with
cooler upper 70s to lower 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows will
be slightly above normal in the lower to mid 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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[Through 06z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast period at all terminals.
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&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge of high pressure pressure will remain in place
over the waters through the weekend. This high will keep winds
light and primarily onshore with a slight enhancement in wind
speeds each afternoon near the coast in association with the sea
breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Humidity values are expected to drop into the lower to mid 30s
each of the next few afternoons. While the warm temperatures and
high mixing heights will enhance dispersion values over Florida,
Red Flag conditions are not expected.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no concerns on area rivers and creeks for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   86  61  88  61  89 / 10   0  10  10  20
Panama City   81  66  83  66  84 / 10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        87  62  88  63  89 / 10   0  20  10  20
Albany        87  62  89  63  90 / 10   0  20  10  20
Valdosta      85  61  90  62  91 / 10   0  20  10  20
Cross City    85  61  88  61  88 / 10   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  79  64  82  63  83 / 10   0  10  10  10
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&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Camp
Short Term/Marine/Hydrology...DVD
Long Term...Barry