Area Forecast Discussion
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309 FXUS62 KTAE 201833 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 233 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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As high pressure continues to build over the southeast, drier, hotter conditions are on tap for today and through the week. The sea-breeze showers and thunderstorms have had a later start today and will also have lower coverage than yesterday, staying mostly in north Florida. Since there won`t be as heavy cloud cover with high pressure building and with delayed storm onset, temperatures will clime to the mid to upper 90s today, low 90s along the coastline. Tonight, lows will be in the mid 70s. .Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... High pressure will continue to build across the region aloft and at the surface, resulting in very hot conditions. Highs will be at near record levels in the upper 90s to near 101 both days with heat indices in the 105-110 range. In additional, anomalously high 850 temperatures will rise to 21-22C by Friday, so unless dewpoints mix out into the lower 70s, a Heat Advisory is a given for much of our forecast area Thursday and especially Friday. Overnight lows will be warm in the mid 70s. Precipitation will be below normal as will sky cover, with showers and isolated thunderstorms confined to Florida zones focused along the afternoon sea-breeze. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... It will continue to be hot and relatively dry over the coming weekend as ridging persists and builds inland. With this fairly long stretch of hot days and mild nights Heat Advisories are again likely, although heat indices will become more dependant upon afternoon cloudiness as we move into the early part of the week. An east-west surface trough will begin to settle south across the region late in the weekend into early next week as an upper level trough digs southward across the western Atlantic on the front side of the strong upper ridge. This may increase precipitation chances early in the week as well as cloud cover which would suppress daytime heating somewhat. The main story will be what happens midweek into the latter part of next week with the potential development of a tropical system moving into the Gulf. Global models are not in agreement with each other, nor are they showing much run-to-run consistency at this time, but this will be monitored carefully in the next several days.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Thunderstorm activity should be more limited today, with KTLH and KECP having the best chance of any impacts. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys possible once again tomorrow morning at VLD.
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&& .Marine...
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Light to occasionally moderate west winds will continue into the upcoming weekend. Seas will remain in the 1 to 2 foot range.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Despite drier air moving into the area, relative humidities will remain above red flag criteria through the week. No red flag conditions are expected.
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&& .Hydrology... Rainfall totals ranged from 1 to 3 inches yesterday. The next few days will be drier with no significant rain expected. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 98 75 100 76 / 10 30 10 20 10 Panama City 78 97 78 97 79 / 10 20 10 20 10 Dothan 74 99 76 99 75 / 20 20 10 20 10 Albany 75 100 76 100 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 Valdosta 74 100 74 100 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 Cross City 74 98 74 97 75 / 10 30 10 20 10 Apalachicola 76 94 77 95 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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