Area Forecast Discussion
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938 FXUS62 KTAE 191510 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1010 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a 1034 mb high centered near Columbus, GA. Like Monday, the unusually cold, dry airmass across our region is shallow, which will help limit vertical mixing (and warming), despite ample sunshine. Highs will only be in the lower to mid 50s, which is 10 to 20 deg below average for this time of year.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Thursday] Unrestricted Vis & unlimited cigs will continue. Winds will be light from the NE, generally less than 10 KT.
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&& .Prev Discussion [401 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... One more very cold night is expected tonight before a moderating trend begins. With the surface high position expected to be a tad farther south compared to last night, the coldest temperatures tonight may actually be across the Florida big bend and adjacent extreme south-central Georgia where another hard freeze is possible. Elsewhere, a light freeze is expected away from the coast. Dry weather will continue through the short term. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... By late in the weekend, models are in overall agreement on swinging a potent upper level shortwave and associated cold front through the area. Much of the guidance forecasts this trough to take on a negative tilt just west of the area with a very strong low-level jet core on the order of 70 knots just northwest of the area, and 50-60 knots in our forecast area. Shear is forecast to be quite strong with this system, and both the 00z Euro and GFS have mid 60s dewpoints returning inland from the coast by 12z Sunday. With this setup, a strong to severe squall line sweeping across the area is a possibility from late Saturday night through Sunday. The main limiting factor will be the uncertainty with the amount of moisture return and associated instability. After Sunday, although the shortwave will lift up into the Great Lakes, longwave troughing will continue west of the area. Another weaker system could bring us a chance of showers on Monday or Tuesday. .Marine... Winds and seas will continue to diminish today with conditions dropping below advisory levels across the offshore water by mid-morning. Relatively light northeast winds are expected on Thursday. Winds will gradually veer from east to south and increase this weekend as a low pressure system develops west of the area. Advisory conditions are possible as early as Saturday and become likely by Saturday night into Sunday. In fact, a strong to severe squall line may sweep across the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday. .Fire Weather... The red flag warnings will remain in place for today. Southeast AL will see low RH durations. In FL, it will be durations and high ERC that meet red flag criteria. The ERC numbers for Bay and Calhoun Counties in FL were suspiciously low for yesterday, so we are not quite sure what is going on there. Looking ahead to tomorrow, RH will still be quite low in the FL Big Bend and Leon and Wakulla were put under a fire weather watch. Moisture levels will continue to increase later in the week with a wetting rain expected over the weekend. .Hydrology... The next chance of widespread rain is expected for late Saturday night through Sunday. While an inch or two of rain is possible, this will not be enough to cause any flooding concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 54 23 65 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 54 37 63 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 52 30 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 52 27 63 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 53 25 63 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 56 24 65 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 54 36 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Hard Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon- Washington. Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GA...Hard Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for Brooks-Lanier-Lowndes. AL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...DVD

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