Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
293 FXUS62 KTAE 141926 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 326 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
East-west oriented ridge remain in place along the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon. A few showers are beginning to develop across central Georgia and into southeast Georgia, along the northern periphery of the ridge. This activity may gradually spread south and west through the afternoon, with a few thunderstorms impacting the northern zones. May see additional development through late afternoon in the Panhandle as well, with the remainder of the area staying mostly dry. Expect the convection to wind down by mid to late evening, with dry conditions expected through the overnight hours. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... The low-mid level flow (1000-500mb) will gradually veer from the east to the south overnight and into Monday morning as the deep layer ridge over the Gulf coast begins to erode and become focused off the Southeast Atlantic coast. The changing flow pattern should allow for a surge of increase moisture by Monday morning with PWATs increasing into the 2.0" to 2.1" range. This will also place our forecast area on the nose of a southerly max in 850mb moisture transport from 12-18Z Monday. Convection-allowing models (CAM) generally show a rapid increase in convective coverage during that same time frame, and we increased PoPs above model guidance south of Interstate-10 to account for that. By afternoon, showers and storms should spread into the rest of the area, and we have 50-60% PoPs in most locations. With the possibility of morning rain and cloud cover in the Florida Panhandle, we reduced highs into the upper 80s in those areas, with 90-92 degree highs elsewhere. A brief lull is expected on Monday Night, although with our area remaining in the axis of maximum low-level moisture transport it is conceivable that isolated to scattered storms could persist during the overnight hours. For Tuesday, the moisture levels remain similar with PWATs around 2.1" to 2.2" but we should see increased large-scale forcing. A digging, low-amplitude shortwave trough should be approaching, with the exit region of a curved 60-70 knot upper level jet streak becoming positioned over the area as well. With abundant moisture and increasing forcing for ascent, we bumped PoPs up to 70% and are expecting fairly widespread convective coverage. For the entire short term period there will be a threat of locally heavy rain and isolated flooding given the abundant moisture and slow-moving storms. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... As the upper level trough deepens and moves south, the stalled frontal boundary will move off to the southeast bringing in slightly drier air. PoPs will be highest Wednesday then will be in the 10 to 30% range for the rest of the period. We will see a taste of cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[through 18z Monday] Low clouds and restricted visibility are possible once again tonight, primarily at KDHN and KABY. CIGS could approach airport minimums around sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through midday on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds should generally be around 10 knots or less and seas should be 3 feet or less for much of the forecast period with a relatively weak surface pressure pattern. However, a building surface high pressure ridge along the eastern seaboard from Thursday into Friday should create a pattern that is typically favorable for nocturnal increases in easterly winds. Therefore, we are expecting an increase in winds and seas by next weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Red flag conditions are not expected through at least mid week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
While heavy rain is possible the next several days, all area rivers are below flood stage so river flooding should not be a concern. However, isolated flooding of low-lying or urban areas cannot be ruled out, mainly through Tuesday evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 73 91 72 89 71 / 20 60 30 70 40 Panama City 76 87 75 87 73 / 20 60 30 70 50 Dothan 72 90 72 89 69 / 20 60 40 70 30 Albany 72 92 71 91 70 / 40 60 40 70 30 Valdosta 72 92 71 90 70 / 20 60 30 70 50 Cross City 72 91 71 89 71 / 20 40 30 60 50 Apalachicola 77 87 76 86 75 / 20 60 30 60 50
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.