Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 300951

551 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

[Through 12z Sunday] Patchy fog early this morning will give way
to prevailing VFR conditions at all sites by mid-morning.
Scattered convection is expected this afternoon with the highest
probabilities (~50%) at DHN, ABY, and VLD.


.Prev Discussion [320 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Upper level ridging will dominate the area today. There will still
be enough deep moisture and instability around in the afternoon
for some scattered convection. The CAM ensemble shows the highest
chances across southeast Alabama and southern Georgia with PoPs
around 50% expected. Lack of forcing should preclude more
widespread coverage today with most convection diminishing after
sunset tonight. However, some of the CAMs do hint at isolated to
scattered convection lingering past sunset across the eastern
sections of the area. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid
90s today with heat indices along the coast approaching 105 in a
few spots with high dewpoints.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The upper level ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the
region through Monday, setting up similar conditions on Sunday and
Monday as what is forecast for Saturday. Model forecast soundings
reveal very little change in the temperature profile in the lowest
1-2km in this time frame, which should lead to highs in the mid
90s and lows in the low-mid 70s - both slightly above normal.
Despite the upper level ridging, there should be sufficient
moisture and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The ridging may act to suppress convection somewhat, so our PoP
forecast for both days is mainly around 30%, with highest values
focused in the afternoon hours each day.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.


A longer fetch of southeasterly winds from roughly TPA-PNS today
should yield some 3 foot seas over the western parts of our
coastal waters with slightly longer wave periods of 6-7 seconds.
Winds and seas should not reach SCEC levels, though, and will
decrease slightly early next week. The longer fetch of 10-15kt
winds may set up more active rip currents today - particularly in
Walton County, and perhaps Bay County.

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  75  95  73  96 /  40  20  40  10  30
Panama City   91  79  92  77  92 /  30  10  30  10  30
Dothan        93  73  95  74  97 /  50  20  30  10  30
Albany        95  74  96  74  96 /  50  40  30  10  30
Valdosta      95  73  94  72  95 /  50  50  40  10  30
Cross City    94  74  93  72  94 /  40  30  40  10  30
Apalachicola  91  78  90  77  91 /  20  10  30  10  30


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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