Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231631

1131 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Conditions have temporarily become quiet across much of the CWA
late this morning, so did lower PoPs across eastern portions of
the region through 18Z. Still watching the developing squall line
to our west very closely, and if the Sfc based instability becomes
sufficient (which is still expected to occur), the shear still
appears more than sufficient to support strong to severe storms
this afternoon.



[Through 18Z Monday] A squall line of strong thunderstorms will move
across the area from west to east this afternoon and early this
evening. The line will extend from KDHN-KECP 20Z-21Z... to KABY-KTLH
22Z-00Z... to KVLD 00Z-03Z. Conditions will remain IFR to MVFR with
heavy rain and strong gusty surface winds up to 50KT with the squall
line. Strong southeast to south surface winds with gusts to
25kt-30kt will precede the squall line.



Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches have occurred over most of
the area overnight and through the morning hours. Heavy rain with a
squall line this afternoon and evening will exit the area by
midnight, with additional amounts of .5 to 1 inch likely. Scattered
light rain will continue overnight and through Monday. Due to the
fast storm motion expected through this evening, flooding issues are
not expected, although some rises will be noted on area streams and
rivers by mid week.


.Prev Discussion [333 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The true synoptic cold front is expected to quickly translate east
from the Mississippi River Valley to about 87W longitude (Alabama)
overnight as the surface cyclone rapidly deepens in the Great
Lakes. Although daytime thunderstorms are expected to reduce the
instability across the area, numerical models indicate some
lingering weak instability in advance of the cold front through
the night, and some isolated to scattered convection redeveloping,
especially after 06Z as low-mid level forcing increases once
again. Some convection-allowing models based on the NAM show some
vigorous storms, but we believe this is because the most recent
NAM is overestimating available instability. Some of the showers
and storms may continue into Monday over the southeast half of our
area, ahead of the advancing front.

The cold front will begin to stall just southeast of our forecast
area Monday Night as the broad, high-amplitude trough over the
central CONUS maintains deep-layer southwesterly flow over our
region during that time frame. Some showers will be possible just
behind the surface cold front over the southeast part of our area.
A strong shortwave rounding the base of the trough from the
southern Plains to Louisiana on Tuesday should increase QG forcing
sufficiently to allow rain to expand back into the forecast area.
Tuesday should be a cloudy, breezy, and cool day with rain.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Rain will continue into Tuesday Night and early Wednesday as the
ejecting shortwave facilitates surface cyclogenesis along the
stalled front in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula (just SE of
our area). The rain should end quickly on Wednesday as high
pressure and drier air build in. High pressure should dominate the
weather pattern for the rest of the week with no rain chances and
slowly moderating temperatures.


No changes to the marine-related hazard products with this
forecast package, which includes a High Surf Advisory for Walton
and Bay Counties and a High Risk of Rip Currents for all of our
beaches. The Gale Warning for all but the far eastern legs of the
coastal waters still appears to be on track. Both of our 60NM
offshore buoys have recorded gale-force gusts already, with the
one south of Panama City recording a non-convective peak wind of
41 knots. Additionally, the C-Tower closer to shore just SSE of
St. George Island recently measured a 32 knot gust.

.Fire Weather...

With moderate to heavy rainfall expected today, there are no fire
weather concerns for the next few days.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  66  77  49  59 / 100  50  40  20  50
Panama City   74  65  73  50  58 / 100  40  30  10  40
Dothan        74  61  73  44  57 / 100  30  20  10  30
Albany        74  63  74  46  58 / 100  50  20  10  30
Valdosta      77  67  76  49  58 /  90  60  50  30  50
Cross City    79  68  76  52  62 /  70  50  50  40  60
Apalachicola  74  67  76  53  60 /  90  40  40  20  50


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until Midnight CST tonight for Coastal Bay-
     South Walton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday
     for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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