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229 FXUS62 KTAE 130113 CCA AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 911 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... Local radar imagery shows thunderstorms ahead of a stationary boundary to our northwest. Some of this convection may effect our northern most Alabama and Georgia counties late tonight. Otherwise, scattered convection is firing along a surface trough across south-central and southeastern Georgia. These storms have very little steering flow, so they are very slow moving and producing moderate rainfall, but with little support to sustain them, they are dissipating before flooding becomes a concern. Still, isolated low lying areas with poor drainage that flood easily, may see some minor flooding tonight. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s. && .Aviation... [Through 00Z Sunday] All terminals are forecast to be VFR through at least 18z tomorrow. The only exception could be VLD/ABY where VCTS is possible through 03z tonight. There is small chance for MVFR due to low cigs at VLD/ABY early Saturday morning. A stationary front drifting southeast will serve as a focus for convection after 19z with all terminals seeing at least VCTS. DHN and ABY have a chance of seeing occasional TSRA. Any thunderstorms near/over terminals could produce periods of MVFR/IFR and gusty winds. && .Prev Discussion [321 PM EDT]... .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Although the upper level pattern will feature an elongated east- west upper level ridge across the area, a weak surface boundary will get pushed into the area as a strong surface ridge builds across the middle part of the country. Deep moisture is expected to pool along this boundary with an increase in convection likely for Saturday afternoon, especially across the western portions of the area. In addition, with precipitable water values rising to near 2 inches and weak steering flow, some localized heavy rainfall amounts could occur, again most likely mainly west of a Tallahassee to Albany line. Deep moisture will linger across the area on Sunday, but there appears to be less of a focusing mechanism for convection compared to Saturday, so PoPs are expected to be more uniform across the area in the 40-50% range. High temperatures are expected to be mainly in the lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The main uncertainty for the extended forecast is to what extent the weak system moving westward into the Gulf will impact our area. The collaborated NHC/WPC forecast takes the system westward to a position south of Houston by mid-week and keeps it weak. Deep moisture will continue to increase across the area with a stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance of rain by mid-week. Some locally heavy rain is possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture expected to be in place. This could be further enhanced by the Gulf system depending on its evolution, but that evolution is much more uncertain. Daytime highs are expected to be held down in the mid 80s from Tuesday through most of the week given the expected cloud cover and increased rain coverage. .Marine... A weak pressure gradient is expected to remain in place through most of the period with winds and sea fairly low. Winds will increase some offshore on Saturday as a weak low passes well south of the area. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will remain above 35 percent through next week with no red flag conditions expected. .Hydrology... Although widespread heavy rainfall is not expected through the weekend, some localized heavy amounts could occur with deep moisture in place and a weak frontal boundary sliding south into the area. The most likely areas to see locally heavy rain on Saturday will be west of a Tallahassee to Albany line. Looking ahead into next week, deep tropical moisture is expected to be in the area along with a weak frontal boundary and the possibility of a weak low in the Gulf. These ingredients will have to be monitored closely for the potential of some heavy rain by mid-week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 73 92 73 92 72 / 20 40 30 40 30 Panama City 77 91 75 90 75 / 10 60 40 40 30 Dothan 72 91 72 90 72 / 20 70 50 50 30 Albany 73 92 72 92 73 / 30 60 50 50 30 Valdosta 71 92 71 92 71 / 30 30 30 40 30 Cross City 71 92 71 91 71 / 10 30 30 40 30 Apalachicola 75 89 75 89 75 / 20 40 30 40 30 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...MOORE/DOBBS MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...DVD

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