Area Forecast Discussion
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119 FXUS62 KTAE 241858 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 258 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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An eastern U.S. trough will move off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast through the day today. In its wake middle and upper level ridging will overspread the southeastern half of the country. This will strengthen the surface ridge and force it further down the Eastern Seaboard subsequently pushing a "backdoor" front into the Tri-State region. Based on this morning`s (13Z) subjective analysis, the front was located near the SC/GA line with a pre-frontal trough draped through central and southeast Georgia, and another surface trough oriented northwest to southeast from Montgomery through Cairo and down the western Florida coastline. While the westernmost trough appears to have moved very little since this mornings update, the pre-frontal trough appears to have weakened under the influence of a decent area of convection across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Ongoing convection should continue its westward progress this afternoon and interact with the aforementioned western trough most likely conglomerating south and east of a line from Tallahassee to Valdosta, with more of a widely scattered nature across south Georgia. By the evening, the backdoor front will press into south Georgia and both focus convection along it and force the remaining and additional storms further southwest into SE Alabama and the Florida panhandle. There is a potential for gusty to marginally severe winds with the strongest storms today, and this will likely be across the eastern and southeastern Big Bend of Florida in the mid to late afternoon timeframe. Finally, the heat will continue to be a concern today with maximum temperatures forecast to climb to the upper 90s region-wide. Marginal heat advisory conditions are expected today, especially west of the majority of the convection this afternoon. This should be the last day where both temperatures and heat indices will run above normal. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... A deep, dry airmass will move into our forecast area Monday and Tuesday, greatly reducing our rain chances. Although high temperatures won`t exactly be cool, they will be back to average (lower 90s) for this time of year. Additionally, the lower humidity and fresh east winds will make it feel more pleasant than what we`ve experienced the past several days. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The GFS and ECMWF forecast an area of higher heights over the Southeast through the period. Initially the deep layer moisture is forecast to be limited, but by next weekend it may be sufficient to support scattered mainly afternoon & evening storms (as opposed to just isolated storms Wednesday through Friday). Temperatures will be near climo, with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF, outside of showers and thunderstorms. Restrictions due to storms are most likely at TLH, ABY, and VLD this afternoon, followed by ECP and possibly DHN this evening.
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&& .Marine...
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Northeast winds will increase overnight as the "backdoor" cold front moves southeast across the marine area. Winds & seas will be well above average for this time of year through at least Tuesday night- possibly reaching advisory levels at times.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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After scattered storms today, expect a stretch of dry conditions through much of this week. As a result, river stages will remain low.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 75 93 72 92 72 / 40 10 10 20 20 Panama City 78 92 75 92 75 / 50 10 10 20 20 Dothan 73 92 69 91 70 / 40 10 10 10 10 Albany 72 92 68 92 69 / 20 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 73 92 68 91 68 / 20 10 10 20 10 Cross City 75 91 71 91 69 / 40 30 10 20 10 Apalachicola 78 92 76 90 77 / 50 10 10 20 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien- Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady- Irwin-Lanier-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift- Worth. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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