Area Forecast Discussion
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529
FXUS62 KTAE 151559
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1059 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Upper ridge along the eastern seaboard (along with the surface
high) will slide eastward through the day today as an upper low
lifts northeast into Iowa. For the local area, skies will remain
mostly clear today, with temperatures rising into the upper 60s
and lower 70s once again. Current forecast is on track with no
significant changes planned.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light winds at all of the terminals.
Clouds will begin to increase late tonight. However, cigs should
remain above 3kft.

&&

.Prev Discussion [321 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The ridging that has been the dominate feature for the last
several days will slide eastward as an upper level trough lifts
north of the area on Tuesday. With low level moisture returning
ahead of the weak cold front tonight, some areas of fog could
develop. The front will push through the area during the day on
Tuesday with just some scattered showers associated with it.
Afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday will be rather warm ahead
of the front with low to mid 70s expected over most of the area. A
slight cool down back to near average temperatures for this time
of year is expected on Wednesday behind the front.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
The next system of interest is expected to arrive between the
Friday night and Saturday time frame. There remains some model
disagreement with this system with the ECMWF showing a much
stronger system than the GFS. The Canadian model is not as strong
as the ECMWF, but it shows more moisture and better chance of rain
over the area than the GFS does. The WPC is leaning towards a
better chance of rain as well, so with this in mind, PoPs were
trended upward. A slight chance of thunderstorms was also added
across the western third of the area out of respect for the
stronger ECMWF scenario. Temperatures are expected to be mostly
near seasonal averages through the period.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will prevail through today. For tonight
through Tuesday, an uptick of winds to near 15 knots will be
possible behind a cold front, mainly to the west of Apalachicola.
Winds and seas will then subside once again for Wednesday and
Thursday with another increase expected for Friday into next
weekend.


.Fire Weather...
Despite generally fair, seasonable, and dry weather today,
conditions will not be dry enough to cause any Red Flag concerns.
Increasing moisture and a chance of rain tomorrow will also
preclude any fire weather hazards.


.Hydrology...
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system may bring a few light showers on Tuesday. A better chance
of rain may arrive around Friday night or Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  46  75  42  66 /   0   0  30   0   0
Panama City   68  56  72  46  62 /   0  20  50   0   0
Dothan        69  51  70  40  62 /   0  30  40   0   0
Albany        67  46  71  39  64 /   0  20  50   0   0
Valdosta      69  43  73  42  65 /   0   0  30   0   0
Cross City    69  41  73  44  67 /   0   0  20   0   0
Apalachicola  67  53  71  46  62 /   0   0  30   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







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