Area Forecast Discussion
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928 FXUS62 KTAE 280017 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 817 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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High pressure stacked over the southeastern U.S. and dry air aloft will mean for clear skies and light to calm winds tonight. These conditions will allow for temperatures to dip below normal values for this time of year- into the mid 60s in south-central Georgia, upper 60s elsewhere.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the forecast period at area terminals. The only exception could be a brief period of MVFR visibility at VLD before sunrise. Winds will be light.
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&& .Prev Discussion [254 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... We will see one more day of dry conditions on Thursday. Then, deep layer moisture will be pulled northward from the GOMEX in advance of a shortwave moving out of the plains and into the Mississippi Valley on Friday. PoPs will be tapered highest south (50%) to lowest north (20%) Friday afternoon and evening. Max temperatures will be in the mid 90s both days with heat indices possibly elevating into the 100 to 105 range for the lower 2/3rd of our CWA on Friday. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it lifts across the Great Lakes region Saturday. This along with additional shortwave energy translating eastward from the western states will effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of the CONUS by early next week. At the surface, the east to west ridge axis will extend across or just north of our CWA with moist onshore flow continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture along with daytime heating and added instability, look for near to above seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain chances, max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to mid 90s. .Marine... Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or less are expected to prevail through Labor Day. .Fire Weather... A dry airmass will remain in place through Thursday before the low-levels begin to moisten once again. Humidity values will bottom out in the mid to upper 20s Thursday afternoon away from the coast. Conditions will approach Red Flag conditions across the region. However, with very light winds in place across Alabama, sufficient soil moisture in Georgia, and limited durations of critical RH in Florida, no Red Flag products are needed at this time. .Hydrology... There are no hydrological concerns at the present time with little to rain expected for the couple of days. Scattered convection is expected to return for Friday into the weekend, but flooding is not expected at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 68 95 70 95 74 / 0 0 10 40 40 Panama City 75 92 75 91 78 / 10 0 10 50 50 Dothan 67 95 68 95 74 / 0 0 0 30 30 Albany 65 96 66 96 73 / 0 0 0 20 20 Valdosta 64 95 67 95 73 / 0 0 0 30 30 Cross City 67 94 69 94 74 / 0 10 20 50 50 Apalachicola 73 91 74 90 79 / 10 10 20 50 50 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...DVD

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