Area Forecast Discussion
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170
FXUS62 KTAE 182140
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
440 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High clouds will continue to stream across the forecast area
overnight ahead of a shortwave trough moving through Texas. The
increase in clouds will likely keep temperatures a few degrees
warmer than last night, with lows generally in the lower to mid
40s.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The deamplifying shortwave that will be passing just north of our
area in the short term period is currently pushing into New
Mexico. Some rain and a few thunderstorms have also developed near
coastal Louisiana near and north of a surface front as isentropic
ascent increases in advance of the approaching wave. Through the
period, the stronger isentropic ascent and lower condensation
pressure deficits in the 295-300K planes will be situated N/NW of
our forecast area. Combined with the weakening nature of the
passing shortwave aloft, we expect PoPs to mainly be in the
"chance" (<55%) range - except far north - and rainfall to be
fairly light. It seems like locales along and north of a line from
Dothan to Albany could see a steady, light rain from Friday Night
into Saturday morning, while southeastern parts of our area could
remain dry through much of the period. High temperatures should
stay in the 50s in the northern parts of our area where cloud
cover and rain will be more persistent, with highs closer to
normal over the remainder of the area.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

As a trough in the central US continues to amplify west of our
area, with several shortwaves digging into the base of the
trough, we may see a couple more rounds of rain until the synoptic
cold front ultimately moves through Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. One round looks likely from Sunday night into Monday
morning along and just north of a stalled surface front. The best
chances of rain in that timeframe would be in the southeast part
of our area, and a few thunderstorms will also be possible. The
next round of rain would be most likely Tuesday or Tuesday Night
ahead of the main cold front. Again, thunderstorms would be
possible. Temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday may be slightly
above normal, falling to below normal in the wake of the cold
front on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] Weak high pressure at the surface will keep
winds light, but divergence aloft will keep upper level clouds in
place through the period.

&&

.Marine...

Winds should generally remain around 10 knots (+/- 5kt) through
much of the forecast period. While that should not be enough for
any hazard headlines, the winds should be sufficient for a light
chop on protected waters and seas around 2 feet.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next week. Low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase over the weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  66  46  66  51 /   0  10  20  40  30
Panama City   48  61  52  64  54 /  10  30  30  40  20
Dothan        43  58  47  60  48 /  10  40  70  50  20
Albany        40  62  46  61  46 /   0  30  70  60  30
Valdosta      40  65  47  64  52 /   0  10  20  40  30
Cross City    41  70  46  70  57 /   0  10  10  20  30
Apalachicola  47  64  54  66  58 /   0  10  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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