Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

701
FXUS62 KTAE 170833
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
433 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

EARLY THIS MORNING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS SITUATED ALONG THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST BEGINNING TO
ENTER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA AT 07 UTC. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INITIAL CONDITIONS,
BUT STILL DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT 5-6 HOURS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH HIGHER FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA; HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN RATES FOCUSED TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. AFTER SUNRISE THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS INDICATING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. ONE GENERAL TREND APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE LATER IN THE
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN (MORE CONVECTIVE THIS
TIME) IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA BETWEEN
16 UTC AND 19 UTC. HOWEVER, PINPOINTING A SPECIFIC AREA WHERE RAIN
IS MORE LIKELY OR RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BE HIGHER DURING THE DAYTIME
IS TOUGHER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE LACK OF A STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM. THEREFORE, WE KEPT A "LIKELY" POP IN THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON STRATIFORM PRECIP IN THE MORNING
(RAIN, MORE STABLE) AND A TREND TOWARD CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE
AFTERNOON (SHOWERS AND STORMS, MORE UNSTABLE). HOWEVER, OUR GENERAL
FEELING IS THAT RAIN AND STORMS WILL BECOME FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE
GULF COAST WITH TIME - NEARER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR APRIL AND WEAK FLOW BELOW 20,000 FT, ANY LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ABUNDANCE OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER TODAY, WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

THE UNUSUALLY WET PATTERN FOR APRIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS.
DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
BUT SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN ON MONDAY WITH POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE THAT COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY] IFR CIGS PREVAILED AT THE TERMINALS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME, AND IFR-LIFR CIGS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TODAY, BUT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE, BUT IFR-LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE AS THEY BECOME OFFSHORE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD STAY HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD, RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THE FL PANHANDLE,
SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES IN
LOCAL RIVER STAGES. IN PARTICULAR, THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT
THOMASVILLE, APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE
RIVER AT BRUCE ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE LOCAL ACTION STAGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WE EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT AN INCH IN NORTH FL, TO 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND PORTIONS
OF THE FL PANHANDLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-
NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION
STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   77  66  84  69  81 /  70  30  40  50  70
PANAMA CITY   75  68  79  71  77 /  70  30  60  60  70
DOTHAN        72  63  79  67  77 /  70  30  60  80  70
ALBANY        73  62  79  66  78 /  60  30  40  60  70
VALDOSTA      76  64  84  67  81 /  70  30  40  30  70
CROSS CITY    79  66  84  67  83 /  60  30  40  30  60
APALACHICOLA  77  70  80  72  79 /  70  30  50  60  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.