Area Forecast Discussion
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886
FXUS62 KTAE 261537
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis showed the cold front was clearing Florida
with the surface low moving up through Eastern North Carolina.
Much drier air was continuing to move into the region behind this
front. High pressure across the western Gulf will move south of
the region later this evening. With the mid level trough axis
having passed to the east of the region, expect sunny and dry
conditions today. Even with sunny skies, weak cool advection will
keep temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.

&&

.Prev Discussion [611 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Once IFR ceilings clear ABY and VLD at the
very start of the period, VFR conditions with clear skies will
prevail for the rest of this TAF cycle.


.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.


.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.


.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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