Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
549 FXUS62 KTAE 221455 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 955 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2014 ...Severe Weather and Flooding Possible Across the Region on Tuesday and Wednesday... .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Regional 12Z surface analysis shows the warm front has progressed northward into the southeastern third of our forecast area. The lift from the progression of the front, along with deep southwesterly flow bringing in moisture from the Gulf, is allowing for continued showers across the forecast area, with increasing coverage over our coastal waters and in the Cross City area. Water vapor imagery continues to show a small dry slot moving in from our west, with convection popping up behind its western edge. This dry air will mean a brief decrease in intensity of rainfall as it moves in, but we will still be on track for another cloudy, cool, rainy day. Cloud cover and rainfall will keep daytime temperatures low, peaking in the 50s to low 60s closer to the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 12Z Tuesday] IFR ceilings will prevail for most of the TAF for all terminals. There may, however, be a brief period of time in the afternoon where ceilings lift to MVFR levels, though no scattering is expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [602 AM EST]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... A developing low pressure system off to our west will begin to amplify across the lower MS Valley region during the next couple of days and eventually form a potent and moisture laden system over the SE on Tuesday. This very energetic low is then expected to move rapidly north-northeast from the Central Gulf coast states into the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night and Thursday, pushing a strong cold front through our region later on Wednesday. Along with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with the pre-frontal squall line, a band of very heavy rainfall with potential flooding is quite possible as well, and this has prompted a Flash Flood Watch across our region from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. Storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches (with locally higher amounts) are definitely possible during this time frame, which unfortunately, is centered around Christmas Eve. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... After the passage of the strong cold front on Wednesday night, conditions will rapidly return to normal on Thursday (Christmas Day) with fair and seasonably cool weather to return for much of the extended period. .Marine... A developing low pressure system to our west will will continue to tighten the pressure pattern over the the marine area during the next few days. This will result in steadily increasing onshore winds and seas, with Small Craft Advisory Conditions developing on Tuesday and Wednesday. Boating conditions are expected to become quite hazardous on Wednesday and Wednesday night with seas peaking at 8 to 10 feet. Conditions across the coastal waters will rapidly improve on Thursday and Friday as the strong cold front moves much further away from the marine area. .Fire Weather... A stretch of wet weather will preclude any hazardous fire weather conditions over the next several days. .Hydrology... A developing low pressure system off to our west will continue to open up plenty of moisture in the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of this week, with a strong low pressure system expected to develop and sweep a strong cold front through our region by Wednesday evening. This system, with its vast onshore flow, will have the potential to bring heavy rain to much of our region on both Tuesday and Wednesday. With embedded heavy thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, the potential for widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches (with locally higher amounts) could cause flash flooding in certain locations. The most likely areas for flooding will be low lying and poor drainage areas, but widespread 4 to 6 inch amounts could cause flooding on some of of our more vulnerable rivers and streams as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 64 58 72 63 71 / 70 50 80 90 80 Panama City 66 60 71 66 68 / 80 50 90 100 70 Dothan 56 54 71 61 69 / 80 50 90 100 70 Albany 53 51 71 60 67 / 80 50 90 100 80 Valdosta 61 57 73 63 73 / 70 50 80 90 80 Cross City 69 64 73 64 73 / 70 50 60 90 80 Apalachicola 69 63 69 65 69 / 70 50 80 90 80
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon- Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington. GA...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt- Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GOULD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.