Area Forecast Discussion
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655 FXUS62 KTAE 040059 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 759 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Fog will be the main concern once again tonight. An area of sea fog south of Panama City is expected to push inland tonight with additional fog developing across the remainder of the area with similar conditions present tonight compared to last night. Overnight lows will generally range from the mid 50s to near 60.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Thursday] Another night of fog and low ceilings is expected with a moist environment in place and light southerly flow. An area of sea fog south of Panama City is expected to spread inland tonight, and additional fog is expected to develop across the remainder of the area. Conditions will gradually improve back to VFR during the day on Thursday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [249 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Deep layer ridging will continue on Wednesday with above average afternoon highs. There will be only a slight chance for rain across the Florida panhandle late in the day as weak isentropic ascent commences over a shallow cool layer across the Panhandle shelf waters. Wednesday night through Thursday will feature a breakdown of the ridging pattern as a strengthening shortwave (a product of superposition) moves east out of the Central Plains, amplifying the northern stream trough. This will gradually move a cold front through the region primarily on Thursday. The best rain chances will be along and west of a line from Albany to Apalachicola as the shortwave will move through the Midwest and Northeast, well north of our area. Thus, forcing for showers will weaken as the front moves east. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be quite mild as advection fog is expected to spread across the entire Tri-State region. On Thursday, the front will result in a sharp temperature gradient, with highs remaining in the low 80s across the Suwannee Valley and as low as the middle 60s in southeast Alabama. CAA will spread cooler air through the region on Thursday night, with lows falling to the middles 30s across southeast Alabama and into the middle 50s near Cross City. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... There continues to be a great deal of disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF throughout the entire extended period. The GFS is a bit wetter than the Euro to start as it never fully closes off a low over the Southwest, and instead brings a wave over the Southeast late in the weekend. The early handling of the cutoff or more progressive shortwave feeds back into the remainder of the period. This results in the Euro bringing another frontal system through the Southeast early next week (where the GFS does not), and then some disagreement regarding the timing of another frontal system mid to late week next week. At this time, expect an unsettled pattern through the extended with a chance for a couple rounds of rain. .Marine... Fog will remain the primary concern across the northeast Gulf through Thursday. Although some clearing has taken place today, expect Apalachee Bay and adjacent offshore waters to fill back in with fog some time tomorrow. Fog may linger west of Apalachicola until a cold front scours it out on Thursday. Behind the cold front an increase in winds to advisory levels is expected. The headline conditions could last into Friday. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .Hydrology... The only river point remaining in flood stage is the Ochlockonee River at Havana which will crest at 25.2 feet tonight before it starts to fall. Rain totals this week should not be high enough to cause significant rises on area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 56 82 64 76 44 / 10 10 10 50 30 Panama City 57 70 63 68 42 / 10 20 20 60 20 Dothan 57 76 65 65 36 / 10 10 30 60 10 Albany 57 81 64 71 39 / 10 10 20 60 30 Valdosta 59 84 62 80 46 / 10 10 10 50 30 Cross City 60 81 61 80 54 / 10 10 10 30 30 Apalachicola 58 69 63 71 47 / 10 20 20 50 30 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...DVD MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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