Area Forecast Discussion
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633 FXUS62 KTAE 201445 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1045 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a relatively strong ridge across the Piedmont and south GA, helping to give our region east to northeast winds. An ill-defined, quasi-stationary front extended from the central FL coast to the central Gulf of Mexico, though its exact position is subject to debate. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a broad closed low centered over northeast FL, with strong drying/sinking air aloft over most of our forecast area. Local radars showed scattered showers along the northeast FL coast. With such strong drying/subsidence, it seems doubtful that much deep moist convection will develop today. The exception will be around Valdosta, which is still under the influence of weak rising motion and slightly better thermodynamics. Our PoP, which is a blend of the latest MOS, our previous forecast, and our latest WRF runs, ranges from 40% at Valdosta to 20% at Albany & Tallahassee (and 10% or less westward). Highs will only be in the mid 80s, as it will take some time to mix out the low stratocu enshrouding much of our region.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Sunday] The Widespread low-end MVFR cigs (1-1.5k ft) will slowly improve to around 3k ft by early afternoon, then become VFR or scattered by mid afternoon. Scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA will affect mainly KVLD this afternoon. Otherwise, once the cigs scatter out later today, VFR conditions and PoPs of 10% or less are expected through Sunday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [315 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could linger into the evening hours tonight over the SE 1/2 of the CWA before clearing skies, along with cooler and drier air move in from the NW overnight. Before sunrise, low temperatures are expected to drop into the seasonably cool lower to middle 60s to the N, and middle to upper 60s to the S. A very warm and dry day is in store for Sunday, with highs around 90 degrees away from the immediate coast. This will be followed by a similarly cool and dry period on Sunday night, with a slightly hotter and more humid day on Monday, which will also feature 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms over the NW 2/3 of the interior during the afternoon as the next cold front approaches from the NW. Lows on Sunday night will be in the middle 60s across much of the interior with upper 60s near the coast, and highs on Monday will generally be in the lower 90s. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]... Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the CONUS, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high centered over or near the Northeast US, and we will be on the southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with temperatures slightly below normal. .Marine... The strong easterly winds which developed over the coastal waters on Friday have gradually weakened overnight, and the Small Craft Advisory over the offshore legs will now expire at 4 AM EDT this morning. However, the cautionary conditions will continue over the entire marine area through the morning hours, with winds and seas diminishing by this afternoon. Thereafter, light winds and low seas should return for the remainder of the weekend and Monday of next week, before increasing once again later on Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in to the northeast of the region behind a cold front. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds over the next several days despite the intrusion of drier air. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected. .Hydrology... Only light rainfall amounts are expected to fall across the region over the next several days, creating little or no impact on our area rivers and streams.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 85 67 90 65 92 / 20 20 0 0 10 Panama City 85 71 87 72 90 / 10 10 0 0 10 Dothan 84 65 90 65 90 / 10 10 0 0 30 Albany 84 64 90 65 91 / 20 10 0 0 30 Valdosta 83 65 90 64 92 / 40 20 10 0 10 Cross City 85 65 88 67 92 / 40 20 10 10 10 Apalachicola 85 72 85 72 87 / 20 20 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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