Area Forecast Discussion
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302 FXUS62 KTAE 021447 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1047 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Not much has changed from yesterday`s weather pattern. Weak high pressure aloft is still in place across the region with a rather moist environment. Expect the sea breeze fronts to be the primary driver of afternoon/evening convection. There is some disagreement with our last couple of WRF runs that vary from sparse convective activity to widespread storms by late afternoon. Will stay close to climatology for this light south to southeasterly flow regime which tends to favor 40 to 50 percent rain chances across the Florida Big Bend and into portions of Southwestern Georgia. Expect a warm afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s across the area. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... Very little change in thinking from yesterday`s extended fcst, as weak Upper Level ridging will be the predominant synoptic level forcer in this fairly stagnant pattern across the SE U.S. It will be in a weakening and retrograding phase on Friday through the upcoming weekend, as a trof of low pressure attempts to push southeastward from the MS Valley region, but this trof will quickly dissipate as well, with new ridging forming in its place for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Despite these slight variations in ridging and trofing, the Sfc pressure pattern should remain weak and plenty of deep layer moisture will continue to advect into the CWA from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, keeping the sea breeze circulation quite convectively active. Both PoPs and temps should average at or above climo levels through the period, with daytime Pops mainly in the 30-50% range, and highs and lows from the lower to middle 90s and lower to middle 70s respectively.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Wednesday]... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon may approach the terminals after 18z with VCTS groups used into the early evening hours.
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&& .Prev Discussion [243 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... Upper level high pressure will continue to weaken as a TUTT moves west from the Bahamas across South FL on Wednesday. This feature will then weaken on Thursday. Easterly low to mid level flow will continue to favor evening convection across our eastern zones until around midnight and the potential for isolated strong storms will also linger. More uniform convective coverage is expected on Wednesday with PoPs generally 30-40, or near climo. Similar conditions are forecast for Thursday. Temps will remain a couple of degrees above normal overnight with afternoon highs some 2-4 degrees above climo. .Marine... A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the waters keeping winds light and out of the east or southeast most of this week. Of course, the sea breeze will veer the winds to onshore each afternoon and evening near the coast. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds this week, preventing us from reaching red flag criteria. .Hydrology... Rivers in Georgia/Alabama remain very low, with a few points potentially reaching record low levels in the next couple of weeks if the unusually dry conditions continue. Rivers are not quite as low in Florida, although with any heavy rainfall remaining highly localized this week, river flooding is not expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 73 94 73 94 / 50 40 40 20 30 Panama City 91 77 92 76 91 / 30 30 30 20 30 Dothan 95 73 95 73 95 / 30 30 40 20 30 Albany 95 73 95 73 94 / 30 30 40 20 30 Valdosta 94 72 94 71 93 / 40 40 40 20 30 Cross City 94 72 93 71 93 / 40 40 40 20 30 Apalachicola 90 76 91 75 90 / 30 20 30 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

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