Area Forecast Discussion
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826 FXUS62 KTAE 210636 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 236 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Very hot weather is tap for today as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the central Gulf Coast. Light northerly low-level flow will aid in keeping the sea-breeze at bay, and allow temperatures to approach triple digits this afternoon. With dewpoints remaining in the 70s through the afternoon, heat index values will rise above 105 degrees, with some areas near the coast approaching 110 degrees. With these values, will keep the current Heat Advisory in place unchanged. The upper ridge and northerly flow regime will significantly inhibit much in the way of afternoon convection. Will keep 20 percent in place over land in case an isolated storm or two does manage to develop. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Very hot and much drier than normal conditions will continue with the deep layer ridging in place. High temperatures will be at record or near record levels both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Max temps are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees at most inland areas with heat indices in the 105-110 range throughout the Tri-state region. Thus, the Heat Advisory will continue at least through the short term period. Overnight lows will be warm in the mid 70s. Rain chances will be 20% or less. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... It will continue to be hot and relatively dry over the coming weekend as ridging persists and builds inland. With this fairly long stretch of hot days and mild nights Heat Advisories are again likely, although heat indices will become more dependent upon afternoon cloudiness as we move into the early part of the week. An east-west surface trough will begin to settle south across the region late in the weekend into early next week as an upper level trough digs southward across the western Atlantic on the front side of the strong upper ridge. This may increase precipitation chances early in the week as well as cloud cover which would suppress daytime heating somewhat. The main story will be what happens midweek into the latter part of next week with the potential development of a tropical system moving into the Gulf. Global models are not in agreement with each other, nor are they showing much run-to-run consistency at this time, but this will be monitored carefully in the next several days.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Friday] Outside of some brief MVFR vsby at KVLD around sunrise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all terminals today. Little in the way of thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon. Winds will be light.
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&& .Marine...
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Light west to northwest winds will continue through the weekend and then swing around to the east early next week. Seas will be 2 feet or less.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Despite the very hot temperatures today and Friday, dewpoints will remain high enough to keep humidity values above critical levels. Red Flag conditions are not expected at this time.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The next few days will be drier with no significant rain expected. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 99 75 100 76 100 / 20 10 20 10 20 Panama City 95 78 97 79 97 / 20 10 20 10 20 Dothan 98 76 99 75 101 / 20 10 20 10 20 Albany 100 75 101 75 101 / 20 10 20 10 20 Valdosta 99 74 100 74 101 / 20 10 20 10 20 Cross City 97 75 98 76 98 / 20 10 20 10 20 Apalachicola 95 77 95 78 94 / 10 10 20 10 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay- Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes- Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton- Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton- Washington. GA...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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