Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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902 FXUS62 KTAE 011910 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 310 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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AS OF 18Z, THE CWA IS CONVECTION FREE. HOWEVER, THE SEA BREEZE WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. .SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GULF STATES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WE WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%), MOSTLY IN OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ZONES. ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE NRN PLAINS WILL HELP DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ENTER OUR WESTERNMOST ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S. .LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY, GIVING THE AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT OF THE MIDWEST FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE WILL STILL SEE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN (20-30%) THROUGH THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY IN OUR NRN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH THE BRIEF EXCEPTION OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY] THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING A TSTM AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO NO MENTION IN TAFS. OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BRING IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL CAUSE A SURGE IN NORTH WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SUNDAY, BUT MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE AROUND 75 ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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WITH RELATIVELY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN LOW. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 61 84 57 85 62 / 10 10 10 0 10 PANAMA CITY 63 77 61 77 63 / 10 10 10 0 10 DOTHAN 61 83 57 81 58 / 20 20 10 10 30 ALBANY 60 82 58 84 60 / 20 30 10 10 20 VALDOSTA 61 83 61 86 61 / 10 20 10 0 10 CROSS CITY 61 83 60 83 60 / 10 10 0 0 10 APALACHICOLA 63 77 61 78 65 / 10 10 10 0 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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