Area Forecast Discussion
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917 FXUS62 KTAE 312143 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 443 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Surface high pressure will slide off to the east overnight as the next storm system takes shape over the southern/central Plains. Low level flow will turn to the southeast by morning, with an increase in high cloudiness. This will keep temperatures warmer overnight, with lows generally in the lower 40s. Any rainfall is expected to hold off until after sunrise. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Through the period, a deepening surface low will track almost due east from around Kansas City Sunday morning to southern New Jersey by Monday afternoon. The strengthening but progressive cyclone will be accompanied by a cold front to the south and southwest, and that front should sweep through our forecast area early Monday. Showers are expected in advance of the front; there will also be some marginal instability so a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. However, severe weather is not expected at this time. A noteworthy trend in the 12Z models shows two QPF maxima centered mainly to the north of our area (N/C AL and N/C GA) and to the south of our area (NE Gulf of Mexico). That sort of rainfall distribution makes sense with much stronger mid-upper level height falls staying north of our area, and somewhat limited moisture return with higher mixing ratios staying offshore. This would place our forecast area in a relative QPF minimum. Therefore, while we are forecasting a 60% to 70% chance of rain across most of our area - mainly Sunday night - the rainfall totals will likely be under 0.5 inches. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... High pressure will dominate the first 36-48 hours of the extended period (Tuesday to Wednesday), with another progressive wave ejecting through the southern states by Thursday. The strongest PVA aloft should be focused out over the Gulf of Mexico, roughly coinciding with a lingering low-level front. Therefore, surface cyclogenesis should occur over the Gulf with an area of rain possible to the north of the low track, along the I-10 corridor. Operational models and global ensembles are consistent in showing a good chance of rain, so we have bumped PoPs up to 60% in most areas on Wednesday Night and Thursday. Dry and cool weather should follow on Friday and Saturday.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions will continue through the overnight hours at all terminals. Cloud will increase after sunrise, with MVFR CIGS possible at KECP and KDHN by mid to late morning.
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&& .Marine...
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SCEC level winds are likely to continue through Monday evening, with a chance of a brief period of conditions warranting a Small Craft Advisory - most notably on Sunday. For now, no SCA has been issued, but the SCEC headline has been maintained. A brief lull on Tuesday to Wednesday will be followed by an increase in winds and seas with an approaching low pressure system on Thursday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red Flag conditions are not expected throughout the next week. RH values will be low today in the 30s, but will not reach critical levels. Moist air will move in by Sunday as a frontal system approaches. Rain is likely Sunday through early Monday. Dispersion values will be over 75 on Sunday and Monday for South Central Georgia and eastern parts of Big Bend Florida.
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&& .Hydrology...
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With the exceptions of the Withlacoochee and Suwannee, our local rivers have crested and begun falling since our last event and no flooding is occurring or expected for the next few days. A frontal passage Sunday-Sunday night is posed to produce less than 1" of rain across the area, which may cause a small rise in river levels, but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of the forecast points. A second system during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may be a bit more significant with more rain possible. When combined with the rains from the first system and already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting high enough to produce more significant flooding.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 42 70 59 62 34 / 0 20 60 30 0 Panama City 50 65 56 57 38 / 0 70 60 20 0 Dothan 42 66 48 52 32 / 0 80 80 10 0 Albany 39 69 53 55 31 / 0 40 70 20 0 Valdosta 42 72 59 61 35 / 0 20 60 40 0 Cross City 43 74 60 66 34 / 0 10 60 60 0 Apalachicola 50 67 60 63 38 / 0 30 60 30 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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