Area Forecast Discussion
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063 FXUS62 KTAE 200716 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 316 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon. The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, expect another seasonable afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and no rain (outside of the aforementioned area). .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri- state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid 80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower 50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20 percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was introduced for Sunday.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Tuesday] Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise. The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and persist through the TAF.
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&& .Marine...
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Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night. At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline criteria.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds. Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 80 56 83 52 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 79 61 80 59 76 / 0 10 0 0 0 Dothan 76 52 80 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 77 53 82 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 79 56 82 51 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 Cross City 84 58 84 53 80 / 10 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 80 64 79 60 77 / 20 10 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD

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