Area Forecast Discussion
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712 FXUS62 KTAE 020107 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 910 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 00z KTAE sounding shows light easterly winds in the boundary layer with deep westerly flow above. The westerly flow is bringing increasing mid to upper level clouds to the region. This should help offset widespread fog develop. However, with the increasing low level moisture we may see a repeat of low cigs toward daybreak. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s. .Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... With weak Sfc and upper level ridging still in place, the warm and humid conditions will continue into Friday. High temps on Thursday should climb into the upper 80s to around 90, provided there are enough breaks in the persistent cloudiness. By late Thursday and Thursday night, a weak warm frontal boundary will push into the region from the SW, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the west. On Friday, showers and storms will be on the increase from west to east during during the day, with most areas in the 60-70% PoP range by the day`s end. This convection will be generated by a powerful upper level low that will pivot SE through the Great Lakes on Friday and Friday night, helping to accelerate a strong cold front through our area Friday night. Although severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time, the chances for a few strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall do appear greater today than they did yesterday. Any strong storms will be driven by fairly high MLCAPES and good Sfc based instability in nearly saturated soundings (PWATs > 2"), as the wind shear and dynamic forcing will be quite meager at best. The showers and storms will then taper off and come to an end from NW to SE during Friday night, as winds shift to the NW behind the cold front. Low temps Friday night will range from the middle 50s over SE AL to the lower 70s across the SE FL Big Bend. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... With the strong cold front pushing south of the region by Saturday morning, much cooler and drier air will quickly advect in from the west-northwest on breezy northwesterly winds. Despite plenty of sunshine, this cool and dry air mass will limit high temps on Saturday to the lower to middle 70s to the N and W and the middle to upper 70s to the S and E. The ridge of high pressure behind the front will then quickly build into the region on Saturday night and Sunday, and remain centered in our vicinity through Monday. While there will be significant cool air advection, the exact position of the ridge during the overnight hours will be critical for radiational cooling for both Sunday and Monday morning. At this time, the model guidance is continuing to trend cooler, with lows on Sunday expected to be in the middle to upper 40s over much of the interior, with upper 40s to lower 50s fcst for Monday morning. High temps will gradually moderate through the period, ranging from the middle to upper 70s on Sunday, to the lower to middle 80s on Wednesday. Rain chances will be very slim through the entire period, with just a slight chance of a shower on Monday night and Tuesday as an upper level disturbance moves through from the NW.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Friday] MVFR vsbys/cigs are expected in the early morning hours for ABY, DHN and VLD. VFR conditions will return shortly after sunrise. Winds will be light. Winds will shift from northeasterly to southeasterly throughout the TAF period.
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&& .Marine... The weak high pressure system to the north of the coastal waters will keep light winds and low seas across the marine area through Friday morning. On Friday afternoon, winds will be on the increase out of the southwest ahead of a strong cold front which will push rapidly through the coastal waters on Friday night. Behind this front, winds will shift to the northwest and increase to cautionary levels into Saturday night. High pressure will then build back in for Sunday and the beginning of next week, bringing a return to light winds and low seas. && .Fire Weather...
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A much drier airmass will filter into the region over the weekend in the wake of a strong cold front. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s both Saturday and Sunday. However, at this time it is too early to determine if other critical weather parameters will reach red flag conditions.
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&& .Hydrology... Although some of the stronger storms on Friday could produce locally heavy rainfall in excess of 2", most areas should receive average totals of 1" or less due to the fast moving nature of the approaching cold front. This amount of rainfall will have little impact on our area rivers and streams. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 69 90 72 88 65 / 10 10 10 60 40 Panama City 73 87 75 87 65 / 10 20 20 70 30 Dothan 66 90 72 84 57 / 10 20 30 70 30 Albany 66 90 69 85 60 / 10 10 20 70 40 Valdosta 66 91 68 88 64 / 10 10 10 50 50 Cross City 68 88 70 87 71 / 10 20 10 40 50 Apalachicola 72 85 74 86 69 / 10 10 10 60 40 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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