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995 FXUS62 KTAE 301440 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1040 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front extending from south-central FL westward into the Gulf of Mexico for several hundred miles. Precipitable Water values, often abbreviated as "PWAT" or "Precip Water", were nearly 50% below climatology values across our forecast area, based on the latest satellite imagery. (Precipitable Water is one way meteorologists measure the amount of moisture throughout the troposphere, with higher values indicating more available deep layer moisture for rain). With such low moisture and the sea breeze front getting pinned at the coast for most of the day, we aren`t calling for any rain today...a rarity for our wettest time of the year. Highs will still be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, but once again the lower humidity will make it feel a little more comfortable than normal for warm- blooded animals, as sweat (humans) and saliva (cats & dogs) evaporate more readily and help keeps the body a little cooler.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Thursday]...But for the possibility of brief, light fog around KVLD Thursday morning, generally unrestricted Vis & unlimited cigs will persist. Winds will be NW to N less than 10 KT today, and 5 KT or less tonight.
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&& .Prev Discussion [351 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... Late Wednesday, longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS will begin to transition to zonal flow but will not last long as by late Thursday, a developing shortwave begins to carve out another longwave trough. For our area, this means at least one more dry day on Thursday before moisture begins to increase with SW flow. The global models, and our MOS guidance, advertise the best chances of rain on Friday for northern portions of the forecast area in our SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Went with a 20%-40% South to North PoP gradient with the primary forcing expected to be along mesoscale boundaries. The diurnal temperature swing will be large on Thursday with dry air in place. Most locations will experience lows in the mid to upper 60s away from the coast in the morning, and high temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the late afternoon. Increasing cloudiness NW of a line from Albany to Dothan will keep max temps lower Friday, while other locations SW of this line will feel temperatures similar to Thursday. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]... The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70. Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. .Marine... Typical summertime conditions will yield low seas through Friday. As we move from Friday into the weekend, increasing southwesterly flow could raise seas an additional foot over current levels, but these will still be well away from any headline conditions. .Fire Weather... Although we`ll be unseasonably dry, relative humidities should remain just above critical thresholds the next couple of days. Moisture levels will gradually return to near normal by the end of the week. .Hydrology... All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until Saturday. Rainfall next week will be about our seasonable average, so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 93 66 94 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 30 Panama City 90 71 90 75 88 / 0 10 0 10 30 Dothan 89 64 93 70 89 / 0 10 0 10 40 Albany 91 66 93 71 90 / 0 10 0 20 40 Valdosta 96 67 96 70 93 / 0 0 10 10 30 Cross City 94 67 93 69 92 / 0 0 10 10 20 Apalachicola 89 70 90 73 88 / 0 0 0 10 30 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...GOULD/DOBBS LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...GOULD/DOBBS FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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