Area Forecast Discussion
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242 FXUS62 KTAE 202354 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 754 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Only a couple of isolated showers remain across the area, and these should dissipate shortly. Our region will see clearing skies and cooler temperatures overnight with lows generally in the low to mid 60s, except lower 70s at the beaches.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light winds.
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&& .Prev Discussion [422 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... For Sunday, relatively sunny skies are expected with dry weather as PWATs are forecast to fall below 1 inch over the entire area with deep-layer dry air advection from the north. The GFS forecast values are nearly 2 standard deviations below normal. We expect highs near 90 with lower humidity. Changes are expected by Monday as a shortwave trough will dig southeast into the region. The GFS indicates a much less amplified wave, with weak QG convergence. However, the new 12Z ECMWF has trended towards a sharper, more amplified shortwave with relatively strong QG convergence. The result is higher QPF in that particular model. The 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean depicts a more amplified wave than the operational GFS too, although not as amplified as the operational ECMWF (perhaps only 25-30% of the ensemble members are). Given that is a recent change, we went with a forecast that maintained more continuity, although if the trend continues on the 00Z models, PoPs and sky cover may need to be trended up on Monday - especially in the northern half of the area. For now, PoPs are around 20% over most of the area. Highs ahead of the approaching front will be in the 89-92 degree range in most areas (just above normal values). .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... A strong surface high is likely to persist through much of the period over the Northeast US, with an average 5-day position somewhere in the vicinity of NY/PA per the GFS and ECMWF. With a trend toward lower than normal surface pressures in the Gulf, this will place the Gulf coast region in an extended period of easterly low-level flow. Through mid-week, this should be accompanied by cooler than normal temperatures and isolated showers. As next weekend approaches (especially Friday and Saturday), rain chances may begin to increase as tropical moisture arrives through slow, steady northward advection over the course of the week. .Marine... With a ship report in our offshore coastal zone reporting winds of 18-19 knots over the past couple hours, and several buoys indicating similar winds, we will maintain a SCEC headline into the evening hours, even though the trend has been for winds to diminish. Relatively calm winds and seas are expected from Sunday into Monday before the next front arrives on Tuesday, ushering in an extended period of at least SCEC winds. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds over the next several days despite the intrusion of drier air. Thus, hazardous dire weather conditions are not expected. .Hydrology... Only light rainfall amounts are expected to fall across the region over the next several days, creating little or no impact on our area rivers and streams.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 65 90 64 92 66 / 10 0 0 20 20 Panama City 71 88 72 90 69 / 10 0 0 20 20 Dothan 64 89 66 90 62 / 10 0 0 20 10 Albany 63 90 65 89 63 / 10 0 0 20 10 Valdosta 62 90 62 91 64 / 10 0 0 20 20 Cross City 65 89 65 91 65 / 20 10 10 10 10 Apalachicola 70 86 70 88 71 / 20 0 0 10 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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