Area Forecast Discussion
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873 FXUS62 KTAE 270049 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 749 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 4 pm regional surface analysis showed a developing low pressure system, part of the large & powerful snow storm that will affect much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states, off the DELMARVA coast. Rather brisk winds between this system and a surface high to our west were gradually subsiding across our forecast area as the sun set. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a long wave trough over much of the eastern U.S., and embedded short wave troughs may bring the northern portions of our forecast area some clouds at times through Tuesday. Though the airmass across our region was cool and dry, we expect that the surface winds will not quite go calm overnight, which should prevent low temperatures from reaching freezing. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 30s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday] Other than some periods of SCT-BKN VFR cigs around KABY, KDHN, and KVLD through Tuesday, mostly clear skies and excellent Vis are expected. Winds will be W-NW around 5 KT overnight, increasing to 10-13 KT (gusts to 20 KT) by mid morning Tuesday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [322 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... The high amplitude long wave trough will gradually slide east of the area during this period with nearly zonal flow in place by 12Z Thursday. Surface high pressure will remain in control of our weather. Yet another cold front will sweep across the region on Tuesday, but this should be a dry front. Temps will be close to seasonal levels Tuesday and just a couple of degrees below normal Tuesday night through Wednesday night. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... A northern stream trough will pass well north of the region late in the week with an upper ridge building east toward the area by the weekend. Another trough will then push into the eastern U.S. early next week. At the surface, the next cold front will cross the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning with PoPs in the slight to low chance range (20-30%). The next system in the pipeline looks to be a bit more energetic with a front passing west to east across the forecast area from late Sunday into Monday. PoPs are in the chance category for now, but will likely increase once our confidence in the timing of this system becomes more focused. Daytime highs will be very close to seasonal levels through this period with overnight lows above normal. .Marine... Winds will decrease overnight as the gradient weakens. Conditions will drop below advisory thresholds across the nearshore legs by around midnight. Seas will remain elevated offshore and the advisory will be extended there until Wednesday morning as there will be another brief increase in winds with the passage of a cold front Tuesday night. Winds and seas will then remain below headline criteria from Wednesday through the end of the week despite yet another cold frontal passage on Friday. .Fire Weather... A drier airmass will continue to filter into the region over the next few days. However, humidity values are forecast to remain above critical values at least through the middle of the week. With strong transport winds, dispersion values will be high on Tuesday. .Hydrology... The Aucilla River at Lamont will reach minor flood stage Tuesday evening and will rise to 54.1 feet on Wednesday. River levels continue to rise in the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee basins which may reach minor flood stage later in the week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 37 64 37 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 45 62 40 57 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 36 60 36 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 34 59 34 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 36 61 36 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 38 64 36 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 44 64 41 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf. RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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