Area Forecast Discussion
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434 FXUS62 KTAE 241404 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1004 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Forecast is on track for a cool, clear fall day. A weak pressure pattern is in place over the southeast at the surface with light winds from the north. At upper levels, a shortwave trough is deepening as it passes over the southeast. This is helping develop and keep upper level clouds over the area, which will move eastward through the day as the trough does.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period with cigs around 20kft. Winds today will be from the NNE at less than 10 knots, calming again overnight.
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&& .Prev Discussion [226 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... Upper trough over the region tonight will slide eastward through the weekend and be replaced by an upper ridge by Sunday. A very dry and seasonable airmass will remain in place with slowly modifying temperatures. Low temperature in the mid to upper 40s tonight will warm to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning. Highs in the upper 70s on Saturday will rise to the lower 80s by Sunday. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S. coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However, the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period. .Marine... High pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday. .Fire Weather... Dry conditions will continue through the next few days across the region. Relative humidity values will approach critical levels in North Florida on Friday and Saturday afternoons, but red flag criteria are not expected to be met. .Hydrology... Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns across the region.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 78 44 79 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 79 54 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 77 46 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 78 46 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 77 46 78 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 78 46 80 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 78 52 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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