Area Forecast Discussion
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819
FXUS62 KTAE 241905
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Mid and upper level ridging will be advancing east of the Tri-State
region through the night as a shortwave moves into the Tennessee
Valley. At the surface, flow is generally out of the south along the
western periphery of high pressure. Additionally, the front that has
been stalled near the state line for the past day or so has weakened
a bit locally and is starting to drift northward. On the south side
of the front, and especially behind the seabreeze front, greater
moisture is present and will allow for another night of low clouds
and fog. Expect the fog to be the most dense earlier in the night
west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee Rivers as winds will
gradually pick up in the more disturbed area between departing high
pressure and approaching low pressure. By sunrise, there should be
more of a low cloud deck to the west, and fog to the east.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A short wave will pass well north of the region on Friday as it
swings from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic. The associated cold
front will reach the northwestern part of the forecast area in the
afternoon and then become stationary between I-10 and the coast
Friday night. There will be little forcing for ascent over the
weakening boundary and PoPs were kept in the silent 10 category. The
front will begin lifting north again as a warm front on Saturday as
the yet another low pressure system deepens over the Great Plains.
Temps will generally be about 3-5 degrees above normal through the
period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Upper level ridging is in place for the start of the period with a
surface high off to the east keeping the area dry. An upper level
low over the central plains will strengthen and become cutoff as it
moves slowly to the east. Moisture and instability will return to
the region Monday and the associated front will move through
Wednesday afternoon and evening. A low level jet will be over the
area with wind speeds up to 45 knots on Tuesday. GFS and Euro are
showing SBCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will
increase to 35-40 kts over our far western zones with most of that
in the 0-1 km layer. Therefore, some storms could be strong to
marginally severe during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday.
Storms will linger into Wednesday until frontal passage brings in
some drier air.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]

IFR visibilities are expected once again tonight, primarily at KVLD,
KTLH, and KECP. Visibility restrictions will gradually switch over
to ceiling restrictions at KECP and KDHN after midnight. Low clouds
will linger through at least the first part of the day at KDHN, and
scatter to VFR a few hours after sunrise elsewhere. A mid level
cloud deck will accompany an approaching front across the region
tomorrow, with breezy westerly winds.

&&

.Marine...

Onshore winds will generally be light with some enhancement near the
coast in the afternoon sea breeze. Winds will increase early next
week with cautionary conditions possible by Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Minimum relative humidities will be in the 30s and 40s and will
not be low enough to reach red flag criteria. Dispersion values
will be in the 60s for most of the area tomorrow, decreasing to
the 30s for Saturday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most
area rivers have already crested with the exception of the
Withlacoochee in Florida and the Suwannee River, where river levels
will continue to rise slowly for the remainder of the week. The next
chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday. At this time,
QPF values are low, around 0.75-1.25 inches.


The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  84  60  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0
Panama City   64  78  63  80  64 /  10  10  10   0  10
Dothan        60  83  58  86  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
Albany        59  84  58  86  57 /  10  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      58  85  60  86  57 /  10  10  10   0   0
Cross City    62  83  60  84  58 /  10  10  10   0  10
Apalachicola  64  78  63  79  62 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WESTON/WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...MOORE






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