Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 220641

241 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a mostly clear and quite cool start across the region today,
temps will recover very quickly over much of the CWA in advance of
an approaching cold front to our NW. Afternoon highs will range from
the mid to upper 80s to the north, and around 90 to the lower 90s
further to the south. Although our CWA will be fairly well displaced
to the south of the primary shortwave, and the Sfc cold front is
expected to be weak, it appears that there will be just enough
moisture and upper level support from the strengthening secondary
shortwave to generate sct showers and thunderstorms across most of
the Tri-State area today, except for isolated activity over
southeastern sections of the area. Therefore, PoPs are expected to
range from 20% to the SE, to 30-40% further off to the NW, with the
best rain chances this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The approaching cold front to our northwest will push through the
area today and tonight. The upper level shortwave trough is forecast
to break off into a cutoff low overnight and sit over the coast of
the Carolinas, which will stall the front tomorrow in the eastern
Big Bend and across southeastern Georgia. The highest chances for
rain tonight will be in south-central Georgia, moving to the
Taylor-Lafayette-Dixie area Tuesday and staying highest in that
area through Wednesday. Highs will be cooler, in the mid to upper
80s on Tuesday, low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Lows will be cooler
as well. Tonight, they`re expected to dip into the upper 50s in
southeast Alabama, into the 60s elsewhere. Lows in the 60s Tuesday
night as well.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
A ridge of surface high pressure is still expected to set up from
the Northeast into parts of the Great Lakes through much of the
extended forecast period. This will set up a long stretch of east
to northeast low-level flow in our forecast area and the entire
region. Slightly below normal temperatures will continue under
that pattern. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday
and Thursday, with increasing rain chances toward the weekend as
an upper level trough is forecast to develop along the Gulf coast,
and deeper moisture advects back into the area.


[Through 12Z Tuesday] Expect VFR conditions to prevail at the
terminals throughout much of the upcoming period, even as a weak
cold front approaches the region from the NW today. However, do
think there is some potential for a brief period of MVFR Vis late
tonight at TLH and VLD, and do have convective Prob30s at DHN and
ABY for this afternoon where PoPs are 40%. Any showers or storms
could also briefly reduce the Vis to MVFR levels here as well.
Elsewhere, only have VCTS groups for this current package.


Winds generally from the east-northeast will increase to cautionary
levels in the wake of a cold front starting after midnight tonight.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, winds will peak around 20
knots with seas of to 5 to 6 feet, likely reaching advisory criteria
over our western offshore waters. Winds and seas will lower Thursday
and are expected to remain below headline criteria through the rest
of the period.


.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture over the next several days will keep afternoon
relative humidities well away from any fire weather concerns.


Rainfall totals through Friday are expected to be 1" or less
across the area, with the highest rainfall totals in the eastern
Big Bend. Since local rivers are at or near normal levels, these
totals are not expected to cause rises into flood stage.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  66  87  66  84 /  30  20  20  10  30
Panama City   90  69  86  69  84 /  30  20  10  10  20
Dothan        89  61  84  62  83 /  40  10  10  10  10
Albany        89  63  84  63  83 /  40  20  10  10  20
Valdosta      92  65  85  65  82 /  30  40  20  20  30
Cross City    89  67  87  67  85 /  20  20  30  30  50
Apalachicola  88  70  85  72  84 /  20  20  20  20  30


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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