Area Forecast Discussion
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636
FXUS62 KTAE 290823
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
323 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Today will mark the beginning of a gradual warming trend as the
upper ridge builds in from the west and surface winds swing around
to become onshore. Highs will be in the lower 60s north to mid and
upper 60s south under sunny skies.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

A shortwave ridge is expected to quickly build into the region on
Sunday, with 500mb heights exceeding 5850m over most of our area.
This should lead to a warming trend in the short term period, which
should put our temperatures above normal after tonight. For tonight,
the influence of the surface high pressure should still be
sufficient to create another night of efficient radiational cooling.
Though it won`t be as chilly as recent nights, lows around 40
degrees are still likely. After that, highs should be in the low-mid
70s on Sunday and Monday, with lows on Sunday Night in the upper 40s.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Next week a zonal flow pattern should emerge over most of the CONUS,
with the core of the upper level jet stream remaining north of our
area. The result should be relatively quiescent weather conditions
with temperatures near normal. Rain chances can`t be definitively
ruled out with a weak disturbance or two aloft expected to pass over
the area, but they are sufficiently low that we did not mention any
showers in the forecast at this time.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 06Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
period with light winds and unlimited ceilings and visibility.

&&

.Marine...

East to southeast flow will continue for the next several days as
surface high pressure remains established over the Southeast. The
next chance of SCEC-level winds appears to be the middle of next
week, especially over offshore legs.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Several rivers may see slightly elevated flows due to the recent
heavy rainfall, but no flooding concerns are expected with a dry
forecast over the next seven days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  74  49  76 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   66  51  71  55  71 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        64  43  72  49  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  38  71  46  74 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      63  39  73  48  74 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    68  42  76  50  76 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  61  51  70  55  72 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS






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