Area Forecast Discussion
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817 FXUS62 KTAE 231924 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 324 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The surface cold front that was analyzed south of the region this morning has largely dissipated. High pressure is building across the Mid Atlantic States and moderate northeasterly flow prevails across the region. Though it has taken some time, the low cloudiness has finally scattered out across the region with temperatures now in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight, even though it remains quite dry aloft, model guidance still shows plenty of low level moisture remaining to generate a 2nd round of stratus. Temperatures will continue to be noticeably cooler with lows around 60 in our northern zones to the mid 60s in North Florida. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Upper low currently over the Carolinas is forecast to gradually weaken and lift northeastward over the next several days. At the surface, a trough of low pressure will remain in place along the southeastern U.S. coast. Combined with high pressure centered over New England, this will keep northeasterly flow in place across the forecast area through Thursday night. With the trajectory of the low-level flow, and little upper support for precipitation, expect most of the rainfall to be concentrated over northeast Florida. However, showers may occasionally get far enough east to impact the southeastern Big Bend so have include slight chance to low chance PoPs through the forecast period. Rain chances may begin to increase a bit more for this region by late Thursday as deeper moisture begins to return to the area. High temperatures will remain near near (or a degree or two below) normal for Wednesday before warming slightly on Thursday (with highs in the mid to upper 80s). .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... Guidance is in pretty good agreement through the weekend, with deep moisture gradually increasing across the forecast area from south to north. The increase in moisture (as well as PoPs) will be due to a combination of a weak tropical wave approaching from the southeast and deepening southerly flow across the southeastern states ahead of a digging trough over the southern Plains. Expect to see an increase in PoPs south of I-10 on Friday, spreading to the remainder of the forecast area by Saturday and Sunday. The weather is likely to remain wet and unsettled into early next week as the upper trough and associated front slowly moves eastward. Temperatures should remain near seasonal norms for early fall.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] MVFR cigs finally have lifted at DHN/ABY and expect VFR conditions to prevail through at least 06z. Thereafter, some of the model guidance indicates a redevelopment of the stratus deck across the region with at least MVFR conditions at all sites before sunrise. These MVFR restrictions should last til at least 15z, if not a little longer on Wednesday morning.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will continue to increase overnight as the gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and a trough of low pressure off the southeast coast. Expect to see Small Craft Advisory conditions overnight, with conditions remaining near exercise caution levels through the remainder of the week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Gradually increasing moisture levels over the next several days will preclude red flag criteria from being reached. Dispersion indices could exceed 75 across parts of the Apalachicola National Forest on Wednesday.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall totals through Friday will be minimal. More significant rainfall will be possible over the weekend into early next week. However, this rain is not expected to have a significant impact on river levels at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 66 85 65 87 69 / 10 10 10 10 20 Panama City 68 85 68 86 71 / 10 0 10 10 10 Dothan 61 83 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 Albany 62 81 62 85 66 / 0 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 63 82 63 86 68 / 0 10 10 10 20 Cross City 66 86 66 88 69 / 10 20 20 30 30 Apalachicola 70 85 69 86 72 / 10 10 10 10 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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