Area Forecast Discussion
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381 FXUS62 KTAE 061553 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1053 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Northerly winds induced by surface high pressure to the northwest has pushed in a cooler, drier air mass following the frontal passage yesterday. With the exception of the panhandle coastal region, skies will be mostly cloudy today with gradual clearing from west to east along the southeast Alabama and southwestern Georgia counties. High temperatures will range from low to mid 50s north of the I-10 corridor to upper 50s and low 60s along the panhandle and big bend.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Saturday] MVFR ceilings have spread south and west to engulf DHN and TLH and are expected to last at these locations for a couple more hours. The clouds may not clear ABY and VLD until 20Z. In fact ABY could briefly drop to IFR. Winds will be from the north around 10 knots with occasional gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range possible after the clearing.
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&& .Marine...
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Small Craft Advisory conditions have ended, although small craft should exercise caution. Winds and seas will diminish during the afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Winds and seas will return to near Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight before improving on Saturday through the remainder of the weekend.
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&& .Prev Discussion [232 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... A chilly night is on for tonight as temperatures fall into the 30s for most areas. Best chance for a freeze is over the northwestern third of the area, closest to the center of the surface high. Could see some upper 20s in parts of SE Alabama. Area of sub- freezing lows necessitates a freeze watch roughly north of a line from Albany to Dothan to De Funiak Springs. The cool air mass will slowly modify through the weekend as the flow aloft becomes increasingly zonal and the surface high weakens and moves east into the Atlantic. Expect highs to return to the mid to upper 60s on Saturday and the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The extended period will feature a rather unsettled pattern for the local forecast area as a persistent upper trough develops from Texas into Mexico. Combined with an upper ridge east of Florida, this pattern will setup broad southwesterly flow across much of the Gulf Coast states for the first half of next week. First shortwave to eject from the upper trough will impact the area from Sunday night into Monday bringing a good chance of rain. Thereafter, there is more uncertainty as to where the corridor of deep moisture and higher rain chances will set up. At this point, best rain chances appear to be over the western half of the forecast area for Tuesday through Thursday. With the base of the upper trough reaching all the way into the tropical eastern Pacific, will need to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall throughout the extended period. Temperatures will reflect the PoPs through the period, with temperatures a little below normal over the western half of the area, and near or a bit above normal over the eastern half. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values may drop to critical levels across portions of the Tri-state region on Saturday. However, red flag conditions are not anticipated at this time. .Hydrology... All area rivers are now below flood stage, although several are still in action or bank full stage. Dry conditions will persist through the day on Sunday. Rain will return early next week, with some potential for heavy rain and subsequent rises on area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 58 35 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 57 40 64 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 54 33 64 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 53 31 65 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 55 35 66 40 72 / 10 0 0 0 10 Cross City 61 38 69 43 74 / 10 10 0 0 10 Apalachicola 58 41 64 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Holmes-Inland Walton. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Calhoun-Clay-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell. AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL/MERRIFIELD SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...WOOL/MERRIFIELD MARINE...CAMP/MERRIFIELD FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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