Area Forecast Discussion
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584
FXUS62 KTAE 021446
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
946 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Previous forecast is on track with only minor adjustments made. The
forecast challenge continues to be temperatures. The wedge has
finally weakened and low level winds will veer to become onshore
by this afternoon. However, low level clouds may linger most of
the day along with patchy light rain or drizzle across northwest
portions of our CWA. This time of year it would not take many
breaks in the cloud cover to see a dramatic warm-up over what we
saw on Sunday where there was almost a 30 degree temperature
differential from northeast to southeast. I did trend a few
degrees below most MOS guidance and show temps ranging from upper
60s northern GA zones to upper 70 eastern Big Bend. Most inland
areas should at least reach the lower 70s.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River at Havana is forecast to reach minor flood
stage overnight and will crest on Wednesday. The Apalachicola at
Blountstown, Withlacoochee at Valdosta and Ochlockonee at Concord
have all crested and will fall below flood stage by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [346 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The Tuesday to Wednesday period will feature our area being
situated under the northern periphery of a mid-upper level ridge,
while a surface ridge along the east coast quickly erodes. The end
result will be most of the rain chances staying north and west of
our area, and increasing southerly flow. Temperatures will be
trending warmer, with mid-upper 70s expected. A few sites could
hit the 80 degree mark, although there still are some questions
related to cloud cover. We currently expect any morning fog and
stratus to largely dissipate by the afternoon hours each day, but
if that doesn`t occur, temperatures could be a bit cooler than
what we are forecasting. Over the cooler Gulf waters, though, the
fog and stratus could become gradually entrenched during this
timeframe, particularly later on Tuesday and into Wednesday as
winds become more southerly vs. southeasterly, and boundary layer
mixing ratios continue to climb. We included some fog wording in
areas with cooler sea-surface temperatures through much of the
period. Over land areas, fog tonight should be related more to
radiational cooling with light east flow still expected over the
northern Gulf. However, sea fog is a realistic possibility on
Tuesday Night. We have included fog in the forecast both nights.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

A cold front should arrive on Thursday, with rain chances highest
on Wednesday Night and Thursday ahead of the front. However,
models show weak QG forcing over our area, with stronger QG
forcing remaining further north. Therefore, PoPs are only in the
chance range at the moment, and QPF is rather light. Although it
will be cooler behind the front, a relatively stable configuration
of mid-upper level ridge over south Florida and upper level jet
axis over the Mid South and Mid Atlantic should prevent the core
of the cold air mass from making it this far south. The stalling
surface front just to our south, while we remain in the right
entrance region of an upper level jet, should maintain rain chances
through the remainder of the extended forecast. In other words,
after the front arrives, the trend will be cloudy and cool with a
chance of rain into the weekend.


.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Tuesday]...IFR ceilings will fall into the LIFR
category at all terminals by daybreak. There is much lower
confidence as to just how dense fog will get, however expect at
least MVFR visibilities at all terminals with the potential to
fall to LIFR. Ceilings will likely not scatter out today, and only
lift into the MVFR window once again.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and calm seas are expected for the next day
or so, before winds and seas gradually ramp up in advance of the
next cold front. However, SCEC or advisory conditions are not
expected until after the front on Thursday. Humid air returning
north over the cooler waters of the far northeast Gulf could lead
to some sea fog, particularly later on Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Mariners should be alert for that possibility.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, due to a combination of low transport
winds and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low
today.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  59  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Panama City   71  59  71  61  74 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        71  59  77  61  76 /  30  20  20  20  30
Albany        68  58  77  59  79 /  30  20  20  10  20
Valdosta      75  60  80  60  80 /  20  10  10  10  10
Cross City    79  60  78  59  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  70  59  71  59  73 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON/BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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