Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 200042
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
842 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
There are still some scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the area, but these are expected to diminish by around midnight.
Some low clouds are likely to develop across the area around dawn.
Lows will be mostly in the upper 60s.
[Through 00Z Sunday] Most terminals (except ECP) will see low cigs
tonight due to abundant low level moisture. VLD is forecast to
reach IFR tomorrow morning from 06-15Z, with low cigs and MVFR
persisting until 18Z. ABY, TLH, and DHN should get down to MVFR
from 09Z-15Z but there is a small chance ABY/TLH could see IFR.
ECP should remain VFR through the night. All terminals, except
VLD, should be VFR by 15-16Z. VCSH is possible tomorrow at TLH,
ABY, VLD from 19Z-00Z.
Strong easterly winds will continue to the north of a weak area of
low pressure in the eastern Gulf through tonight. For the offshore
waters, these winds are in the 20 to 25 knot range at times, and
the nearshore areas will likely see winds closer to 15 knots.
These winds are expected to subside on Saturday morning. A period
of light winds and relatively calm seas will follow until another
front pushes through the coastal waters on Tuesday.
.Prev Discussion [428 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The aforementioned digging shortwave trough will likely close off
as a mid-upper level low briefly on Saturday near the NE Florida
or Georgia coastline, before ejecting northeast as another,
stronger digging trough pushes into the Northeast US from late
Saturday and into Sunday. The result will be slowly rising mid-
upper level heights across our forecast area, with a weak surface
pressure pattern or small bubble high. For Saturday, much of our
forecast area will be in an area of relatively strong QG
divergence to the west of the trough axis / mid-upper level low.
Although that would suggest more limited rain coverage, we will
remain in a region of fairly strong, 10-20 knot ENE boundary layer
flow, which is a pattern that tends to favor convection arriving
late in the afternoon from the east. Convection-allowing models do
show that, mainly in the form of rain showers, and so we included
rain chances over the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly
for the period from 20Z to 02Z. We are mostly anticipating low-
topped rain showers, although a few thunderstorms will be
possible. Highs should range from the mid-80s west, to the low 80s
east where there should be greater cloud cover.
As the mid-upper level shortwave trough and accompanying surface
low along the Atlantic coast eject northeast, quieter and dry
weather is expected on Sunday. With sunny skies, a return to the
upper 80s for high temperatures is likely.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next
week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run
model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the
CONUS, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level
easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high
centered over or near the Northeast US, and we will be on the
southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small
rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with
temperatures slightly below normal.
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.
Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 68 84 68 88 66 / 40 30 30 10 10
Panama City 72 87 71 88 71 / 30 20 20 10 10
Dothan 67 85 66 88 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
Albany 68 84 65 89 65 / 20 20 20 10 10
Valdosta 67 83 65 88 64 / 30 50 30 10 10
Cross City 67 85 66 88 66 / 40 40 30 20 10
Apalachicola 73 84 71 86 71 / 30 20 30 10 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.