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930 FXUS62 KTAE 020651 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2014 ...Stormy Conditions Expected on Friday with Much Drier and Cooler Weather on Tap for the Weekend... .Near Term [Through Today]... An upper level shortwave trough over the four corners region is deepening the upper level trough over the western CONUS, with weak ridging still in place aloft over the Mississippi valley. At the surface, high pressure is still in place over the eastern CONUS, but will continue to slide eastward through the period as a developing front over the Plains begins to trek eastward. Today will be dry, with only a slight (20%) chance for showers in extreme western portions of our area. Highs will be quite warm for October- in the upper 80s to around 90. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... The 4-Corners short wave will pivot across the Southern Plains before being absorbed by the trough currently over western Canada. This 2nd trough will dig southeastward to a position over the Mississippi Valley by 00Z Saturday. The trough will continue to amplify and come to dominate eastern North America on Saturday with its axis extending from Ontario to FL by 00Z Sunday. The associated cold front will reach the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight and cross AL on Friday. The front will then sweep across our forecast area from northwest to southeast Friday night. Pre-frontal convection will approach our western zones by daybreak Friday with likely PoPs for most of the area Friday afternoon. The likely PoPs will linger into the evening for South Central GA and parts of the FL Big Bend. Shear values have increased in the models since last night`s runs, but are still marginal for severe. We would expect to see a weakening linear MCS approaching from the west. In our area, look for some of the stronger storms to produce wind gusts up to about 40 mph. Friday will also be pretty humid for October with dew points in the lower 70s. With afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, heat indices will peak in the mid 90s along and south of I-10 with lower 90s to the north. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The ridge of high pressure behind the cold front will quickly build into the region on Saturday night and Sunday, and remain centered in our vicinity through Monday. While there will be significant cool air advection, the exact position of the ridge during the overnight hours will be critical for radiational cooling for both Sunday and Monday morning. At this time, the model guidance is continuing to trend cooler, with lows on Sunday expected to be in the middle to upper 40s over much of the interior, with upper 40s to lower 50s fcst for Monday morning. High temps will gradually moderate through the period, ranging from the middle to upper 70s on Sunday, to the lower to middle 80s on Wednesday. Rain chances will be very slim through the entire period, with just a slight chance of a shower on Monday night and Tuesday as an upper level disturbance moves through from the NW. && .Aviation... [Through 06Z Friday] With high pressure and high moisture in place over the region, another morning with MVFR visbys and possibly IFR cigs is in store for DHN, ABY, and VLD, clearing out after sunrise. Afterward, VFR will prevail with light winds, generally 5 knots or less, from the east-southeast. && .Marine... Light winds and low seas will dominate the marine area through tonight. Winds will be on the increase out of the southwest by Friday afternoon ahead of our next cold front. A wind shift to the northwest then north will occur behind the front Friday night and Saturday with winds expected to reach cautionary to marginal advisory levels. Offshore winds will drop off on Sunday and veer to onshore by Monday. && .Fire Weather... Relative humidities will dip into the mid to upper 20s this weekend west of a line from Apalachicola to Fitzgerald in the wake of a cold front. At this time, it looks like Alabama will reach its relative humidity duration and 20-ft wind criteria and likely its KBDI values as well on Saturday. The Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend counties appear to be more borderline, with most of the Panhandle reaching duration criteria and much of both areas reaching wind criteria, but the ERC values are more uncertain as they will depend on how much rainfall we will accumulate. In Georgia, relative humidities are expected to remain above 25 percent, preventing red flag criteria from being reached there. Relative humidity will be low for long durations Sunday as well, but winds will be lower, preventing red flag conditions in Alabama. Depending on the ERC values, Florida may be borderline once again Sunday. && .Hydrology... Although some of the stronger storms on Friday could produce locally heavy rainfall in excess of 2", most areas should receive average totals of 1" or less due to the fast moving nature of the approaching cold front. This amount of rainfall will have little impact on our area rivers and streams. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 90 70 88 64 80 / 10 10 60 60 10 Panama City 86 75 86 64 79 / 10 20 70 50 0 Dothan 89 70 84 56 74 / 10 20 70 40 0 Albany 89 68 87 59 76 / 10 10 70 50 0 Valdosta 88 67 87 64 77 / 10 10 60 60 20 Cross City 88 68 87 70 82 / 10 20 40 50 30 Apalachicola 85 74 85 67 80 / 10 10 60 60 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...GOULD/WOOL

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