Area Forecast Discussion
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780 FXUS62 KTAE 250121 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 921 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight] A shortwave trough passed through the area this afternoon and in its wake, low-mid level ridging is moving in from the west. What this means for our forecast area is clear skies, calm-light winds, and another dry air mass. With this in mind, conditions will be favorable once again for radiational cooling. Most locations should be in the mid-upper 40s. Colder locations could reach the low 40s while coastal regions will be near the mid-upper 50s. && .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Sunday] All terminals are forecast to be VFR through the period as high pressure and dry air will provide light winds and clear skies through the TAF period.
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&& .Prev Discussion [302 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The trough will be exiting east of the area at the start of the period with a large 592-dm upper high parked over TX. The ridge will build eastward during this period while losing some magnitude. By Monday morning, the ridge axis will be over FL. Surface high pressure will also gradually build eastward across the Gulf Coast states. This pattern will yield a continued stretch of dry weather and a warming trend. Daytime highs will be around 80 on Saturday and in the lower to mid 80s on Sunday. We will see one more night with lows in the mid to upper 40s Saturday night over the FL Big Bend and South Central GA with milder 50s further north and west. Low to mid 50s can be expected across the entire forecast area Sunday night. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The upper ridge will continue to move east early in the period with a trough deepening into the Southeast by Thursday and Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday and then slow down. There are still timing differences with the arrival of the front in our forecast area. However, any noticeably cooler air will not arrive until after the period. In the interim, temps will be above normal with highs gradually falling from the mid 80s on Monday to around 80 on Friday. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s inland with 60s near the coast. .Marine... High pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday. .Fire Weather... Despite relative humidities in the 20 to 30 percent range today and Friday, winds will be too light to reach red flag criteria, although Leon county will be close to them today with high ERC values. By Sunday, relative humidity values will begin to increase again and no red flag conditions are expected through the period. .Hydrology... Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns across the region.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 45 81 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 54 80 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 47 79 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 45 80 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 45 79 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 46 80 46 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 53 78 54 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD/DOBBS SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...GOULD/DOBBS MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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