Area Forecast Discussion
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524 FXUS62 KTAE 311925 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 325 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Although it will be significantly cooler and drier across the region today with highs limited to the lower to middle 70s under plenty of sunshine, (which is 3-5 degrees below climo for this time of year) the real blast of cold air is still on the way for the upcoming weekend. This unseasonably cold air mass will be preceded by a dry cold front which will approach the region from the NW this evening. Some cloud cover will build in overnight as the front approaches but will clear out quickly before sunrise. Cold dry air behind the front means a very chilly morning with lows in the upper 30s for most of the region and low 40s for the southeast and coastal locations. Winds will pick up overnight after frontal passage. Wind chill values will be in the 30s in the early morning hours before sunrise. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... A high-amplitude, but progressive long wave pattern will continue across the country through this period. The upper trough axis will be over the area Saturday morning and then shift east with the upstream ridge axis over the Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. A reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive with the passage of another cold front overnight. This air mass will make it feel like mid winter with daytime highs on Saturday only reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s. That`s 15 to 20 degrees below normal. It will also be quite breezy adding an apparent chill to the area. This will set the stage for the coldest night of the season thus far on Saturday night. Much of the guidance is calling for a light freeze across our mainly our northern zones. However, the high position over Kentucky is not ideal for realizing these temps so early in the season. Typically, we want the high centered much closer to the Gulf Coast. We have also noted that the MOS tends to have a cold bias with the first couple of arctic outbreaks in the fall. For this reason, we are keeping temps just above freezing. Winds should stay up across most of the forecast area. However, eastern areas may decouple for a few hours and this would allow for some possible frost formation. We have included areas of frost over our South Central GA and inland eastern FL Big Bend zones. As heights rise, temps will moderate a a few degrees on Sunday. More of the area will see winds decouple on Sunday night with fairly uniform mid 30s for lows. We will include a mention of frost for several inland areas. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The upper ridge will be over the area early next week with a warming trend being the result. By Wednesday afternoon, temps will be back to seasonal levels in the upper 70s to near 80. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern and its impacts on our weather for the latter part of next week. It appears that an upper low will cut off from the main flow either over northern Mexico or the Southwest U.S. by Wednesday. This low will then move eastward. The GFS is much faster than the ECMWF in bringing this low to the Gulf Coast, even going so far as to develop a surface low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and moving that low eastward across the central Gulf. At this time, we favor the slower solution and will keep PoPs minimal for the end of the week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. Winds will begin to increase out of the NW this afternoon and will increase further overnight and continue through the end of the TAF period. Gusts of 25KT are possible especially at ABY and DHN.
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&& .Marine...
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A cold front will sweep across the Northeast Gulf overnight with strong gusty winds arriving in its wake. While sustained gales are not likely, frequent gust to 35-40 knots justify the gale warning that is in effect. Winds will peak around sunrise Saturday with offshore seas occasionally reaching as high as 15-17 ft. High pressure will start to build southeastward toward the waters later in the weekend with conditions dropping below headline criteria by mid morning Sunday. As high pressure moves east off the Southeast U.S. coast, winds over the Gulf of Mexico will veer to the east by Sunday night. This pattern will persist into Wednesday with winds surging to cautionary levels each night through the period.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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A secondary dry cold front will push into the area tonight bringing increased wind speeds and drier air. The colder temperatures will keep relative humidity values above critical levels for much of the area, especially as we move into the cool season criteria for Alabama. In Washington, Bay, Leon, and Wakulla counties in Florida however, where ERC values are highest, we will meet red flag conditions with relative humidity around 26% and 20 ft winds around 18 MPH on Saturday. A red flag watch has been issued for these counties for Saturday afternoon.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no impacts expected along area rivers and streams.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 41 60 35 65 36 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 43 61 40 65 45 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dothan 36 58 34 63 38 / 10 0 0 0 0 Albany 38 59 33 64 36 / 10 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 40 59 34 63 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 Cross City 43 60 34 66 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 43 61 39 65 45 / 10 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM EDT Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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