Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 050227

927 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
01 UTC surface analysis shows a sharp cold front across the Mid
South and into the Southern Appalachians. Still moderate southerly
flow across our region with a very moist airmass ahead of the cold
front. Extensive low cloudiness with areas of fog has already
formed this evening with the fog occasionally dense along the
immediate coast. Overnight, expect fog to further spread inland,
though still a bit uncertain on which areas will end up with dense
fog as surface winds will be a little stronger tonight than
last night. Expect a warm night with lows generally in the mid


[Through 00Z Friday]...Extensive LIFR conditions will overspread
all terminals by 05z primarily due to low ceilings. Visibilities
will also drop to less than a mile at times overnight, especially
at TLH/ECP/VLD/. Expect only slow improvement after sunrise with
IFR conditions possibly hanging on into the afternoon before
finally improving to MVFR conditions. Areas of light rain will
move in from the northwest after 16z as a cold front moves into
the region.


.Prev Discussion [426 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A slow moving cold front will be approaching from the northwest on
Thursday into Friday. The best chance of rain along this boundary
will be on Thursday afternoon for most locations and on Friday
afternoon for the Big Bend region. Thunderstorms are not likely due
to the slow moving nature of this front with most of the rain
falling on the cool side. Friday night drier air will move in as the
front pushes further south. Thursday afternoon highs will range from
the mid 60s in the northwest to around 80 in the southeast. Highs
Friday will be mostly in the lower to mid 50s. Lows on Thursday
night will range from the upper 30s in the northwest to the low to
mid 50s in the southeast. Friday night lows will be mostly in the
mid 30s to mid 40s range.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Drier air will remain in place until Sunday afternoon when clouds
start to move in ahead of a developing low in the Gulf. Sunday night
through the rest of the period expect plenty of cloud cover with a
chance or a slight chance of rain for the entire CWA as a Gulf Low
lingers in the Gulf bringing moisture to the area. Temps will be on
the cool side due to all the cloud cover with afternoon highs
generally in the 60s. Lows will generally be in the 40s and


Areas of fog are likely overnight with dense fog possible from
Apalachicola eastward. Expect light to moderate southerly winds.
Thursday evening a slow moving cold front will move through the
region bringing strong northerly winds. Advisory conditions are
briefly possible west of Apalachicola with cautionary conditions
elsewhere. Expect winds to be more moderate and northeasterly by
Friday afternoon. By Saturday morning winds will become light.

.Fire Weather...

The warm and humid conditions will come to an end on Thursday
evening as a cold front moves through the region bringing a good
chance of rain. Cool and cloudy conditions will persist into the
weekend behind this front. As a result, red flag conditions are
not expected for the next several days.


All area rivers are now below flood stage, although several are
still in action or bank full stage. Rainfall totals will not be
high enough to cause a significant rise on rivers.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  77  51  56  40 /  10  60  30  40  10
Panama City   65  69  44  54  43 /  30  60  30  40  10
Dothan        65  65  38  51  37 /  40  60  30  30  10
Albany        66  70  41  50  35 /  20  70  30  40  10
Valdosta      65  81  45  52  39 /  10  40  40  40  10
Cross City    63  80  55  60  47 /  10  20  30  30  20
Apalachicola  65  72  48  56  44 /  10  60  30  40  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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