Area Forecast Discussion
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054 FXUS62 KTAE 180707 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 307 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Deep layer ridging over the eastern GOMEX and Florida peninsula will begin to slide east as a shortwave approaches from the northwest. Forecast soundings show a continuation of deep westerly flow with PWATS at or near 2". This along with the mean 1000-700mb flow over 10 knots from the west (regime 5 sea-breeze) supports chance PoPs throughout the region; highest over the Florida zones (50%). Max temps will be in the lower to mid 90s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... A fairly potent shortwave will pass through northern Georgia on Tuesday. A spoke of energy extending south of the main shortwave is forecast to spread into the forecast area by afternoon. This energy should help to somewhat counter the otherwise less favorable westerly low-level flow pattern to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. Despite the scattered storms, the westerly low-level flow will support temperatures in the mid 90s during the afternoon. Overall precip coverage will likely be lower on Wednesday as the low-level flow becomes more northwesterly as the mid-level ridge builds just west of the forecast area. The northwesterly flow will be warmer as well, with mid to upper 90s expected for afternoon highs. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... Through much of the extended period, high pressure will shift northward/inland from the Gulf, shifting the winds from westerly to northwesterly and then variable. This will mean even less moisture transport, keeping PoPs slightly below climo for this time of year. Temperatures will be warmer than normal, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s and lows only dipping into the mid 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Tuesday] MVFR vsby in fog should develop at most of the terminals before daybreak, with another round of IFR conditions at VLD. Scattered showers and storms will once again develop with possible brief impacts at the terminals mainly this afternoon and early evening.
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&& .Marine...
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High pressure will remain situated over the central Gulf through this week, keeping winds out of the west of southwest and generally below 15 knots outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. No headlines are anticipated this week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall totals through Tuesday are expected to range from .25 to .50 inches. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 76 94 75 97 / 50 10 40 30 40 Panama City 93 79 91 78 92 / 30 20 30 20 20 Dothan 94 74 93 73 96 / 40 20 40 20 20 Albany 95 74 94 75 97 / 30 20 30 20 30 Valdosta 96 73 93 74 96 / 40 20 40 30 30 Cross City 94 75 93 74 94 / 30 10 30 20 20 Apalachicola 90 79 91 77 92 / 30 20 30 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN

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