Area Forecast Discussion
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124 FXUS62 KTAE 310806 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 406 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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It`s been an interesting night with convection lingering later than usual. The 00z KTAE sounding revealed a tall and skinny CAPE profile with light deep layer flow, moderately steep lapse rates, and deep moisture. Storm motions have been slow, and this has resulted in some very impressive rainfall rates and localized heavy amounts across the area. In fact, the Valdosta airport ASOS measured 0.10 inches of rain in a one minute period between 1142 pm and 1143 pm with well over 2 inches in an hour. The KVAX dual- pol radar did a good job with these instantaneous rates and hourly rainfall amounts. Given these observations, there were likely some areas that received brief, localized flooding, although no flooding has been reported so far. For the next 24 hours, we expect the ongoing convection to diminish by sunrise. Convection is being driven by outflow boundaries currently as there is little in the way of synoptic scale forcing with an upper level ridge centered just east of the area. In general, guidance was a little low on PoPs yesterday, and we expect a similar environment to be in place today. Therefore, the official PoPs went near or slightly above the highest guidance (the locally run CAM ensemble) for most spots for this afternoon and tonight. This results in a large area of 50 PoPs. Highs are currently expected to be in the mid 90s this afternoon with heat indices of 100 to 105, although that will depend on how much morning cloud cover lingers across the area from the overnight convection. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Very little will change in terms of the overall synoptic setup from this weekend into the first couple days of the new work week. This has led us to a forecast weighted more toward persistence, although the latest model guidance also reflects similar scenarios to what has been observed this weekend. Essentially, an upper level ridge will continue to influence area weather with weak flow through the troposphere and warmer-than-normal temperatures. The forecast calls for a continuation of scattered thunderstorms, with coverage peaking in the afternoon to early evening, and highs in the mid-90s away from the coast. We may see a continuation of locally heavy rainfall as well given slow storm motions and PWATs around seasonal normals (1.8 to 1.9 inches). .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... The period will begin with a weak ridge in place across the Southeast with near zonal flow across the northern stream. Early in the period, near normal storm coverage is anticipated with the lack of any large scale forcing. By Thursday, a tropical wave will near the Florida east coast bringing an increase in moisture to the region and weaken the ridge aloft. Thus in the latter part of the period, rain chances will be on the increase. Temperatures throughout the long term period will generally be a couple of degrees above climatology through Thursday and then near normal late in the period due to increased convective activity.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Monday] Convection is still active at this early hour around VLD and not too far from TLH. Expect this convection to diminish by sunrise with mainly VFR conditions prevailing after sunrise. However, another afternoon of scattered convection is expected across the area today.
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&& .Marine...
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Wave periods will continue to be a little higher than normal (6-7 seconds) with a broad area of breezy southeast winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should maintain seas around 3 feet offshore and to the west of Apalachicola. The winds and seas should diminish closer to normal summertime levels around Monday Night or Tuesday. Some 2 foot surf is likely again today, with 3 foot sets likely in Walton County and perhaps western Bay County. Active rip currents will be possible - particularly from Panama City Beach and points further west.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next several days with no fire weather concerns.
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&& .Hydrology...
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River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 73 96 74 95 / 50 40 30 10 30 Panama City 92 77 91 77 91 / 50 20 30 10 30 Dothan 95 73 96 74 96 / 50 40 30 10 30 Albany 96 73 97 74 96 / 40 50 30 10 30 Valdosta 95 72 96 73 95 / 50 50 40 20 30 Cross City 94 73 94 72 94 / 50 40 30 20 30 Apalachicola 91 76 91 77 91 / 40 10 30 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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