Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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556
FXUS62 KTAE 261050 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
650 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]...

OUTSIDE OF DHN AND VLD WHERE MVFR VIS IS STILL PRESENT, VFR LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
MORNING. BY VERY LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON,
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION, AFFECTING THE TERMINALS WITH
GUSTY WINDS, REDUCED VISIBILITIES (MAINLY MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR),
AND LOWERING CIGS WHICH WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY
AT DHN, ECP, AND ABY TOWARDS 12Z. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MVFR
LEVEL CIGS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [403 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RATHER RAPIDLY STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
TODAY AS IT HEADS E-SE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TOWARDS
OUR CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO ADVECT IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND GIVE OUR REGION A GOOD DOSE OF SCT TO NUMRS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. BEHIND THIS STEEP
TROF, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BACK TO TODAY, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
MOST AREAS, TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SE FL BIG BEND
WHICH MAY NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS UNTIL VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER...DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. IRONICALLY...THE ANNUAL
SPRINGTIME TALLAHASSEE FESTIVITIES SCHEDULED FOR SATURDAY WILL
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THE ONLY COOL DAYS IN MARCH. LOWS FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S AROUND DOTHAN...TO MID 60S AROUND
CROSS CITY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. LOWS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY SATURDAY...AND THE MORE DIRECT SUN
ANGLE WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE SUN.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE DEEP LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL MID WEEK...WHEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE FAR TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH
WOULD INDICATE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. THE GFS STILL
HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS MUCH
WEAKER THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A
MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.


.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AND EVEN WITH DRIER AIR COMING
IN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE TO DROP
LOW ENOUGH AND THE WIND SPEEDS WERE TO REMAIN ELEVATED, ERC VALUES
WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINFALL FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. BY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THE AIR
MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY, AND DEPENDING ON OTHER CRITICAL
PARAMETERS, RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   79  63  69  40  65 /
PANAMA CITY   74  60  66  47  62 /
DOTHAN        78  53  64  40  62 /
ALBANY        79  57  65  39  61 /
VALDOSTA      80  62  68  41  62 /
CROSS CITY    83  66  73  44  66 /
APALACHICOLA  76  64  70  46  63 /

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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