Area Forecast Discussion
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298 FXUS62 KTAE 020236 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 936 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The Tri-State region remains in the stubborn zonal flow regime aloft, with a cool wedge of high pressure at the surface. Although there will still be some drizzle around tonight, the threat for light rain is much less than previous nights as the coolest core of the wedge has retreated north a bit. This is evident in this evenings 00z sounding where the temperature difference between the bottom and the top of the inversion is only about 4 degrees, as opposed to around 10 degrees this time yesterday. Additionally, the depth of the cool layer has shallowed about 1kft from yesterday. Essentially all this means is that isentropic surfaces will be sloped less and over a narrower vertical window, resulting in very weak (if any) low level isentropic ascent. The best chance for any light rain tonight will be across southeast Alabama and parts of the far western Florida panhandle. Rain generated along a stationary front in the Mississippi Valley will drift east into these areas tonight, though with low layer flow veering westerly and a rather uniform zonal temperature gradient, expect rain to be on a weakening trend. The weakening winds will also increase the chances for widespread fog overnight, which is already occurring in most locations. The question becomes just how dense will the fog become. If the winds are able to go completely calm tonight, expect that the fog will become quite dense. There are also some signals that sea fog may begin to develop off the west coast of the Peninsula as high dewpoint air moves over the cool northeast Gulf shelf waters in the veering flow. The tricky part will be the timing of this advection as it will need to occur before sunrise when the near surface air will begin to warm. Should the fog develop tonight, it will likely stay socked in all day tomorrow, gradually spreading west through the Gulf.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday]... IFR ceilings will fall into the LIFR category at all terminals tonight. There is much lower confidence as to just how dense fog will get, however expect at least MVFR visibilities at all terminals with the potential to fall to LIFR. Ceilings will likely not scatter out tomorrow, and only lift into the MVFR window once again.
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&& .Prev Discussion [314 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... It continues to be a challenging day time temperature forecast with the model guidance showing the cold wedge hanging on through at least 15 UTC. Given the models relatively poor performance with Sunday`s temperatures, prefer to follow more of a persistence approach in keeping the wedge around until at least late afternoon when it seems to make sense that enough mixing could then take place - along with surface winds picking up more of a southerly component. With this in mind, Southwestern Georgia would likely be the last place to see warmer temperatures, so have departures from guidance as high as 10 degrees in portions of the area on Monday. Essentially, this has highs in the lower 60s for our northern zones to as warm as the upper 70s in the Southeast Florida Big Bend. Obviously, should the cold wedge and cloud cover scatter out quicker than predicted, warmer high temperatures would occur. By Tuesday, a building mid level ridge and a warm front lifting north into the Tennessee Valley will erode whatever cool air is left, and deliver a warm, but mostly cloudy day across the region with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Only light showers are expected across the northern portion of the area near to the surface warm front. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Continued warm weather will start the extended period with southerly flow in place for Wednesday. High temperatures may end up approaching 80 degrees in some spots. By Thursday, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a chance of light rain and much cooler air. Though rainfall amounts will be light, guidance this cycle indicates this frontal zone stalling across the forecast area through much of the weekend, yielding cool and unsettled conditions. There is some disagreement on whether a southern stream impulse late in the weekend will interact with this boundary bringing a round of heavy rain to the area by Sunday night. For now, will show 30 percent PoPs that far out given limited model agreement in this scenario. Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be well below normal for afternoon highs and just a couple degrees below normal for overnight lows. .Marine... Winds will continue to decrease across the marine area this evening and remain low through Tuesday. By Wednesday, southerly flow will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This front will move through the area on Thursday, shifting to winds to offshore and increasing to advisory levels through Friday. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. However, due to a combination of low transport winds and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low on Monday. More typical dispersion indices will return on Tuesday. .Hydrology... Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta late this evening. No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 54 70 59 75 58 / 10 10 10 10 10 Panama City 57 68 59 69 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 Dothan 50 67 58 76 61 / 30 10 20 10 10 Albany 48 61 57 76 59 / 20 10 30 10 10 Valdosta 53 69 59 78 60 / 10 10 20 10 10 Cross City 60 77 58 77 60 / 10 10 10 10 10 Apalachicola 57 67 60 68 62 / 10 10 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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