Area Forecast Discussion
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626 FXUS62 KTAE 291431 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1031 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across North FL, extending west across the Gulf coastal waters about 30 to 60 miles offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued along and ahead of this front, and there is still enough boundary moisture and CAPE to support isolated storms as far north as Dixie County. Otherwise, Precip Water values had fallen to 50% below climo levels across central GA & AL, and this dry air will continue advecting into our forecacast area this afternoon. Highs will still be in the lower to mid 90s, but the lower humidity will make it feel more comfortable than the hot and muggy conditions of the past few days.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Wednesday]...A rare period (for summertime along the Gulf Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least Wednesday. VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW 5 to 10 KT today, and 5 KT or less overnight.
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&& .Prev Discussion [418 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... Extremely dry air for this time of year will continue tonight, with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. This dry air will allow low temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and Wednesday night, with the potential for some record or near record low temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or storm, but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid to upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases). .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]... There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help enhance diurnal convection. Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area. Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s. Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. .Marine... Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon, much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder of the period. .Fire Weather... Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do not look likely. .Hydrology... Flooding is not expected for the next several days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 94 65 94 65 94 / 10 0 0 10 10 Panama City 91 72 91 72 90 / 10 0 0 0 10 Dothan 91 63 90 64 93 / 10 0 0 10 10 Albany 92 64 92 66 94 / 10 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 93 64 95 67 95 / 10 0 0 10 10 Cross City 94 67 94 66 94 / 20 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 92 72 91 72 89 / 10 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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