Area Forecast Discussion
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129 FXUS62 KTAE 281008 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 608 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Dense fog across the region should dissipate around 9am once again this morning. The upper level pattern will be transitioning through the day from deep layer ridging over the Southeast to broad troughing which will cover much of the country by tomorrow. At the surface, flow will veer to the south to the west of Apalachicola as high pressure begins to retreat eastward. This southerly flow will create some weak low-level isentropic ascent over the Gulf across a subtle temperature gradient between the central and northeast Gulf. While this normally wouldn`t be enough to generate any showers, there will be some enhancement to the low-level ascent by an elongated upper-level PV anomaly draped southwest to northeast through the Gulf. The effects locally will likely just be some enhanced cloud cover spreading inland across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama, though a stray, light shower or two cannot be ruled out along and west of a line from Panama City to Dothan. Just to be clear, most of the expected shower activity will remain offshore and confidence in any rain over land is extremely low. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... A cold front will begin to approach the region on Wednesday as a storm system moves through the Ohio Valley. The models have been consistent over the last several runs in keeping the southern end of this system quite weak with limited chances of showers and thunderstorms. See little reason with the overnight guidance to deviate from the previous forecast, so will keep low end pops in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night. Drier air moves into the region for Thursday along with some cooler air. Temperatures on Wednesday will continue to be in the mid 80s, with a notable change arriving on Thursday when temperatures return to normal levels. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... Big changes are in store during the long term period. While there are still notable differences between the Euro and GFS with the eventual incoming airmass for the weekend, some key points are starting to emerge. Essentially, the eastern CONUS trough will amplify by Friday as a large mid level ridge builds over the Rockies. The degree of this amplification and eventual path of a surface anticyclone will largely dictate how much cold air makes it to the Gulf Coast. Of the two models, the Euro is the most aggressive showing a significant amplification of the pattern by Saturday with a closed low moving off the Mid Atlantic States by the first of the week. This opens the door for the first real cold air intrusion to the Gulf. And with the surface ridge axis in the model aligned over the region by Sunday morning, the Euro hints at the potential for a frosty morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s. The GFS favors less amplification and is also more progressive with the pattern through the weekend, so this solution favors milder temperatures as much of the cold air is vectored into the Mid Atlantic and the surface high pressure stays well to the north. The GFS has offered stability in its solutions over the past few days, while the Euro has struggled to maintain consistency. Moreover, the 28/00z operational Euro seems to be quite removed from the mean of the ensembles, so for now, have weighted our long term forecast much closer to the GFS solution, which indicates a cool snap, but certainly not as cold as suggested in the Euro. By Monday, as the surface high pressure area moves off the Atlantic Coast, easterly flow returns, signalling a gradual warm up and a steady increase in low level moisture.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Wednesday] LIFR to IFR visibilities in fog will plague most of our terminals this morning. Between 13-14z all restrictions due to fog will dissipate returning sites to VFR. However, there is the possibility of MVFR ceilings spreading south to north from ECP to DHN later this afternoon.
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&& .Marine...
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Light onshore flow will prevail through Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will move through the marine area Wednesday night, shifting winds to offshore. A gradual increase in offshore flow is expected with at least cautionary conditions by late Friday or Saturday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next couple of days. A drier airmass is expected to arrive late this week which may bring critical relative humidities to the region. Stay tuned.
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&& .Hydrology...
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With no significant rainfall through the next few days, rivers will remain at low levels.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 86 58 85 62 79 / 0 10 10 20 10 Panama City 81 67 81 62 76 / 20 10 10 20 10 Dothan 84 62 82 55 75 / 10 10 30 20 10 Albany 86 60 83 55 77 / 0 0 20 20 10 Valdosta 85 56 83 58 79 / 0 0 10 20 10 Cross City 85 57 83 60 82 / 0 10 10 20 10 Apalachicola 80 66 79 64 77 / 10 10 10 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla- Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf- Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton- Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton- Washington. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Brooks- Decatur-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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