710
FXUS62 KTAE 171857
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
257 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across southeast
AL and the FL Panhandle, triggered primarily through mesoscale
forcing (from earlier outflow boundaries). These storms will
continue to affect the northern and western portions of our
forecast area into this evening. Storms over the FL Big Bend will
be isolated, as relatively dry air from the south is advected
across the region. Relatively weak winds aloft will help to
inhibit storm organization, and weak delta theta-e values from the
surface to 625mb make wet microbursts unlikely. Thus our
probability of severe storms this afternoon and evening is low.
The PoP overnight will be 20% or less, and it will be a typically
warm and muggy summer night with lows in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Weak upper level troughing across the southeast states will
continue through the short term period. A weak frontal boundary
will sag southward into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday and
provide a focus for scattered afternoon convection, mainly across
the northern areas on Tuesday and then pushing farther south on
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near the seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale systems are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18z Tuesday] Scattered TSRA will continue across south AL
and south GA into early this evening, affecting KDHN and KABY at
times with brief periods of MVFR/IFR cigs and vis and gusty winds.
Elsewhere the TSRA will be isolated. Outside of any TSRA, VFR
conditions will prevail. Between 09 and 14 UTC we expect MVFR cigs
to develop in south GA and AL, affecting KABY, KVLD, and KDHN.

&&

.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southwest
to west flow and low seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion
values climb above 75 Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  93  74  91  71 / 20  20  20  50  30
Panama City   78  89  75  88  76 / 20  20  30  50  30
Dothan        73  92  72  92  72 / 40  50  50  50  30
Albany        73  92  72  93  71 / 40  50  40  50  30
Valdosta      71  92  73  90  70 / 30  30  30  50  30
Cross City    72  91  74  90  72 / 10  10  10  40  30
Apalachicola  77  88  75  87  74 / 10  10  20  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Fournier
Short Term/Long Term/Marine/Hydrology...DVD