Area Forecast Discussion
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059 FXUS62 KTAE 210016 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 816 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Afternoon/early evening convection is winding down, similar to last evening. Therefore, have gone ahead and lowered PoPs for most of the forecast area through 06Z. Upper trough remains in place just west of the forecast area. With the associated deep west to southwesterly flow and plenty of moisture (pwat near 2 inches), conditions once again favor shower and thunderstorm development off the Florida Panhandle after 06Z, with the activity pushing onshore by sunrise. Bulk of available CAM guidance supports this scenario, so have bumped up PoPs over the Panhandle and adjacent coastal waters after 06Z.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail to start the night, but some low ceilings are expected to develop after midnight with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop close to dawn near ECP and spread eastward through the day, with TLH and VLD having a higher probability of thunderstorms than DHN and ABY later in the day.
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&& .Prev Discussion [303 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... The upper level trough will narrow and deepen over the southeast CONUS with a low closing off by Monday afternoon over Alabama. This feature will slowly drift southwestward through the short term period. Deep layer moisture and onshore flow along with the added instability of daytime heating will keep Pops in the good to likely category for most of the FA each afternoon. Max temps will range from around 90 to the lower 90s. Overnight lows should remain generally in the lower 70s at most locations, except for mid to a few upper 70s near the immediate coast. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The mid/upper level trough will persist across the local region through the extended period. The trough will be wedged between the Bermuda Ridge and strong ridging centered over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures along with rain chances are expected to be at or above climo each day. .Marine... Slightly elevated winds and seas will diminish tonight as a surface low over our local waters dissipates. Then, we expect light southwest winds with low seas through the upcoming work week. .Fire Weather... Moist conditions for the next several days will favor enhanced precipitation. Red flag criteria is not expected trough the upcoming work week. .Hydrology... There is a good chance for showers and thunderstorms over the next several days, but only isolated heavy rainfall amounts are expected. Area rivers should remain below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 89 73 92 71 / 20 60 40 50 30 Panama City 77 89 76 89 75 / 60 60 30 40 20 Dothan 73 91 73 93 72 / 30 40 20 40 20 Albany 73 90 73 93 72 / 30 50 20 50 30 Valdosta 73 89 71 92 71 / 20 70 40 50 30 Cross City 73 89 71 93 72 / 30 70 40 50 40 Apalachicola 78 88 76 89 75 / 60 70 40 50 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Monday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN

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