Area Forecast Discussion
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238 FXUS62 KTAE 031949 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 249 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Except along the immediate coast where onshore winds have combined with low clouds and fog to hold afternoon temperatures back into the upper 60s to the lower 70s, rapid clearing which occurred elsewhere across the CWA during the mid to late morning hours allowed temps to soar into the lower to middle 80s across much of the interior. These temps are starting to peak out with a fairly robust CU field developing, and an isolated light shower or 2 still cannot be entirely ruled out. Tonight should be very mild and humid with low temps well above climo values, with a fcst low of 56 in Tallahassee compared to a "normal" low of 45. Fog and low clouds are expected once again overnight, with more of an advection or combination advection/radiation fog event. Therefore, expect the best chances for dense fog or the potential for longer periods of dense fog to be at the southern Taf sites of ECP, TLH, and VLD. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Deep layer ridging will continue on Wednesday with above average afternoon highs. There will be only a slight chance for rain across the Florida panhandle late in the day as weak isentropic ascent commences over a shallow cool layer across the Panhandle shelf waters. Wednesday night through Thursday will feature a breakdown of the ridging pattern as a strengthening shortwave (a product of superposition) moves east out of the Central Plains, amplifying the northern stream trough. This will gradually move a cold front through the region primarily on Thursday. The best rain chances will be along and west of a line from Albany to Apalachicola as the shortwave will move through the Midwest and Northeast, well north of our area. Thus, forcing for showers will weaken as the front moves east. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be quite mild as advection fog is expected to spread across the entire Tri-State region. On Thursday, the front will result in a sharp temperature gradient, with highs remaining in the low 80s across the Suwannee Valley and as low as the middle 60s in southeast Alabama. CAA will spread cooler air through the region on Thursday night, with lows falling to the middles 30s across southeast Alabama and into the middle 50s near Cross City. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... There continues to be a great deal of disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF throughout the entire extended period. The GFS is a bit wetter than the Euro to start as it never fully closes off a low over the Southwest, and instead brings a wave over the Southeast late in the weekend. The early handling of the cutoff or more progressive shortwave feeds back into the remainder of the period. This results in the Euro bringing another frontal system through the Southeast early next week (where the GFS does not), and then some disagreement regarding the timing of another frontal system mid to late week next week. At this time, expect an unsettled pattern through the extended with a chance for a couple rounds of rain.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] As mentioned above, fog and low cloud development are expected once again tonight, but with light SE low level flow off of the Gulf of Mexico, expect the best chances for dense fog or the potential for longer periods of dense fog to be at the southern Taf sites of ECP, TLH, and VLD. DHN and ABY will still likely see a period of IFR to LIFR conditions, but these may improve to MVFR levels or better sooner during the day on Wednesday.
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&& .Marine...
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Fog will remain the primary concern across the northeast Gulf through Thursday. Although some clearing has taken place today, expect Apalachee Bay and adjacent offshore waters to fill back in with fog some time tomorrow. Fog may linger west of Apalachicola until a cold front scours it out on Thursday. Behind the cold front an increase in winds to advisory levels is expected. The headline conditions could last into Friday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The only river point remaining in flood stage is the Ochlockonee River at Havana which will crest at 25.2 feet tonight before it starts to fall. Rain totals this week should not be high enough to cause significant rises on area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 56 82 64 76 44 / 10 10 10 50 30 Panama City 57 70 63 68 42 / 10 20 20 60 20 Dothan 57 76 65 65 36 / 10 10 30 60 10 Albany 57 81 64 71 39 / 10 10 20 60 30 Valdosta 59 84 62 80 46 / 10 10 10 50 30 Cross City 60 81 61 80 54 / 10 10 10 30 30 Apalachicola 58 69 63 71 47 / 10 20 20 50 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for waters from Destin to Apalachicola out to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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