553
FXUS62 KTAE 180751
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT Tue Jun 197 2013

.NEAR TERM [TODAY]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by ridging over Wrn
states, troughing over much of Ern states with axis over Srn
Appalachians, weak quasi-stnry flow over Srn tier states, and an
elongated ridge over Gulf of Mex. Shortwaves continue to round base
of trough. At the surface, low over TN Valley with weak front swwd
across Nrn AL and into Cntrl TX. Swd, high well east of mid-Atlc
with ridge SWWD across N FL and into Nrn Gulf of Mex. All this
places local area in warm sector with area PWATS generally 1.5 to
1.75 inches.

Lead shortwave will move across mid-south by end of day although
most energy will remain well NW of our area. Ahead of shortwave, the
frontal boundary will sag swd while ridge builds further into local
region. This will result in tighter gradients and increasing WSW
winds. Per RAP13, aftn SFC Cape only expected to max out around 2600
j/kg in Coffee County, 2100 j/kg in Houston County AL closest to
lift. Also expect 0-6KM shear only 15-20KT, 0-3 km SRH only 50-80
m/s and 700-500mb lapse rate 5-6c/km. CAM even less impressive, i.e.
sfc Cape of around 1000 j/kg, updrafts of only 7, and CIN and
integrated graupel both zero.  So thermodynamics and chance for
strong to severe storms appear less favorable than on Mon aftn. Will
go with 50-0% NW-SE POP gradient. Expect inland highs in the low
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Wednesday Night]...
An upper level trough will continue to deepen through the local
region with a decent lobe of energy passing overhead on Wednesday.
At the surface, a cold front will drop down from the north and lay
out west to east across north Florida Wednesday. A weak wave may
develop on the boundary in the panhandle Wednesday morning and
translate to the east. All this coming together combined with deep
layer moisture and daytime heating should bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Tri-state region
Wednesday. Will show slight/chance PoPs for the overnight periods.
Temperatures will remain near the seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale systems are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...[Through 06z Wednesday]
VFR conditions will yield to MVFR Cigs at KDHN, KVLD, and KABY
from 09Z to 14Z. After this period VFR conditions will generally
prevail. However, after 18Z convection possible. DHN and ABY will
have the greatest chance for TSRA and will go with VCSH 18Z-00Z and
PROB30 19z-23z there. Confidence in POPs too low elsewhere for
inclusion. MVFR vsbys/cigs likely in any stronger storms. VFR
conditions return after sundown.

&&

.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southwest
to west flow and low seas. A cold front will approach from the north
and stall over or just north of the waters Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion values
climb above 75 this afternoon areawide and for portions of North FL
on Wed afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  74  90  71  90 / 20  20  60  40  50
Panama City   89  75  88  76  90 / 20  20  60  40  40
Dothan        91  73  91  72  91 / 50  40  50  30  40
Albany        91  73  92  71  91 / 50  40  50  30  40
Valdosta      92  72  93  70  90 / 30  30  50  40  50
Cross City    91  73  89  72  91 / 10  10  50  30  50
Apalachicola  88  75  88  75  86 / 10  10  50  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barry
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Block
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...DVD
MARINE...Barry/Fournier