Area Forecast Discussion
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193
FXUS62 KTAE 260855
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
455 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.Near Term (Today)...
A much drier airmass has become established across much of the
region in the last 24 hours. The 00z sounding at KTAE showed the
precipitable water had dropped to 1.15 inches. With little change to
the weather pattern today, expect dry conditions to continue. The
only exception may be a few showers developing in the moderate
northeasterly flow across the southeastern Florida Big Bend.
Temperatures will be near normal for late August, generally in the
lower 90s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

As was mentioned on Monday, daytime high temperatures will still be
considered on the Hot side with most afternoon temps rising into the
middle 90s each day away from the immediate coast and over extreme
northern portions of the CWA. However, with surface dewpoints
expected to mix out into the upper 50s to the middle 60s with all of
the deep layer dry air just ready to mix down to the surface (TAE`s
00 UTC PWAT was a remarkably low 1.13" for this time of year),
afternoon relative humidities will drop into the 30s each afternoon.
The end result of this will be Maximum Heat Indices that will be
almost exactly the same as the Maximum High temps...in the middle
90s. On Thursday, a few upper 90s may sneak into the fcst across N
FL, but this will be a far cry from the 4 consecutive days of Heat
Indices of 108 to 115+.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

After a dry day on Thursday, The GFS and ECMWF forecast the return
of a moisture-rich boundary layer on Friday and Saturday as the deep
layer flow shifts from east to south. However, neither model shows
much in the way of Q-G forcing with this return in moisture, and the
mid layer tropospheric moisture isn`t that impressive. This would
suggest near climo PoPs (peaking around 40% at each site`s
locally-favored diurnal peak). The GFS and ECMWF diverge a bit Sunday
and Monday, as the GFS forecasts plentiful deep layer moisture
(and even some weak Q-G forcing) over our region as a series of
short wave troughs translate eastward over the Gulf Coast states.
The ECMWF rebuilds a 500 mb high (and dry, sinking air aloft) over
our forecast area, which would result in below-climo PoPs and
above-climo high temperatures. The GFS hasn`t been very consistent
from run to run. Additionally, we`re heading into the climatological
transition to lower PoPs. Our forecast is a blend of the two
solutions, with a little more weight given to the drier ECMWF
solution.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty winds up to
17kts are anticipated during the daytime hours on Tuesday.

&&

.Marine...

With a fairly tight pressure pattern and relatively cool and dry air
advection for this time of year, the Small Craft Advisory conditions
out of the northeast are persisting across the coastal waters early
this morning, but should finally diminish to Cautionary levels for
this afternoon and tonight, where we will have a fairly rare
easterly surge in the winds tonight. This particular pattern usually
occurs in the Winter and Spring months, so we have yet another
footnote to add to our unusual summer of 2014.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Through drier conditions are expected through much of this week,
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Thus red
flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

With little to no measurable rainfall expected across the Tri-State
region until Friday and the upcoming weekend, there are no pressing
hydrological concerns at the present time.

&&


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  71  95  70  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
Panama City   92  75  91  75  91 /  10  20  20  10  10
Dothan        92  68  93  68  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        91  68  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      91  67  94  67  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
Cross City    91  68  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
Apalachicola  91  76  89  76  90 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD





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