Area Forecast Discussion
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453 FXUS62 KTAE 161926 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 326 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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COOL WEDGE HAS BUILT DOWN INTO OUR REGION. SURFACE DATA AT 18 UTC SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION, GENERALLY FROM NEAR DOTHAN TO VALDOSTA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF A WARM UP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THUS THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION REALLY ISN`T GETTING GOING. HI- RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEARS THE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES, THE PRESENCE OF THE COOL WEDGE WILL HAVE SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA WITH LOWS NEAR 60 WITH AREAS IN FLORIDA IN THE LOWER 70S. .SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]... AN ACTIVE, MOIST SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE NAEFS FORECAST MEAN PWAT VALUES FOR OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MINOR IMPULSES ACROSS OUR REGION, RESULTING IN OCCASIONALLY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, BUT (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS), WE CAN`T SINGLE OUT A WELL-DEFINED FEATURE THAT WOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, THOUGH ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE. THROUGH SATURDAY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED, QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF A "WEDGE" OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LAPSE RATES RATHER FLAT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, REDUCING THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN GA AND AL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD. .LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]... THE PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS 500 MB TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY, AS A RATHER SHALLOW NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ON MONDAY. THUS OUR POPS WILL (FINALLY) BEGIN TO LOWER MONDAY, THEN FALL TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE THAT COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] EXTENSIVE IFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT DHN/ABY/VLD BEHIND THE COOL WEDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE CYCLE. TLH/ECP WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS TIL LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO LIFR ALL SITES BY 07Z WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z BACK TO THE IFR CATEGORY.
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&& .MARINE...
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LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD, RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES IN LOCAL RIVER STAGES. IN PARTICULAR, THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE, APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE LOCAL ACTION STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WE EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT AN INCH IN NORTH FL, TO 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE- NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 66 80 66 83 69 / 50 60 30 50 40 PANAMA CITY 67 78 68 77 71 / 60 60 30 60 50 DOTHAN 62 74 63 78 67 / 70 70 30 50 50 ALBANY 61 73 62 80 66 / 60 70 30 40 50 VALDOSTA 62 77 64 82 67 / 50 60 30 40 40 CROSS CITY 66 82 66 84 68 / 60 50 30 40 30 APALACHICOLA 70 78 70 80 72 / 50 50 30 50 40
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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