191
FXUS62 KTAE 170101
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
901 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013

.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Shower and thunderstorm activity from this afternoon is gradually
diminishing as instability decreases. Thunderstorm growth was
limited today in part by a notable dry layer above 700 mb. With an
incoming upper disturbance don`t expect cloud cover to completely
thin out tonight. Additionally, with the moist near surface
conditions patchy fog or stratus will also be possible before
sunrise. Overnight temperatures will continue to be seasonable,
generally in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A couple of weak shortwaves will affect the area through the short
term period. As deep layer moisture continues to gradually
increase, an increase in convective coverage is expected across
the northern and western portions of the forecast area closest to
the best lift. The 12z run of our local ARW shows a couple of
stronger storms on Monday, which can`t be ruled out, but any
severe threat should remain isolated and brief as is typical for
summer. A similar scenario is again expected on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain near the seasonal average.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale system are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00z Tuesday]...
VFR conditions tonight until MVFR ceilings settle in briefly around
09-11Z. VFR to IFR visibilities possible as well with BR, especially
at TLH, DHN, and VLD. Conditions should improve to VFR again after
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms starting in the late
morning/early afternoon. Winds Monday will be from the southeast
around 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southerly
flow and low seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion
values climb above 75 Monday afternoon, and possibly again Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  92  72  93  72 / 10  40  20  20  10
Panama City   76  87  75  87  75 / 20  30  10  10  20
Dothan        73  92  72  91  73 / 40  60  30  40  30
Albany        73  92  73  92  72 / 10  50  40  50  30
Valdosta      71  92  71  91  72 / 20  40  30  30  20
Cross City    71  92  69  91  70 / 10  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  75  87  75  87  75 / 20  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...DVD