576
FXUS62 KTAE 181031
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
631 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

...Updated Rain Forecast...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Convection to our north has taken an early dive to the south this
morning. Thus, very few hi-res, or other models have a decent
handle on the situation. The current thinking is that a rather
widespread area of showers and thunderstorms will dive south into
our Alabama and Georgia counties by mid morning. Expect the
possibility for frequent lightning and heavy rain. Although winds
may gust to 30 mph or so at times, severe gusts are not
anticipated at this time. Although the finer details are not well
resolved by any of the guidance this morning, all NWP guidance
suggests a weakening trend with respect to the convection as the
storms move south. Thus, have kept the best rain chances across
our Alabama and Georgia counties, with lower rain chances across
north Florida. Do however expect some rainfall at least to make it
in to north Florida this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...
Very summerlike conditions are expected across the region for both
Sunday and Monday, as the shortwave Trof Axis, which will begin the
weekend to our north, gradually slides eastward to a position off
the eastern seaboard by Monday afternoon. This will allow for Upper
Level ridging to build in from the west, with High Temps expected to
reach the lower 90s each day over the interior, with lower to
perhaps mid 80s near the coast. This shortwave Trof may provide just
enough lift and instability to combine with the daytime heating to
produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best
chances for rain will be across eastern portions of the CWA (nearest
the Trof), but even here, 30% should be the greatest value.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 10Z Saturday]...

See the Near Term discussion above for a synopsis of the evolution
of this mornings complex of storms. Generally VFR conditions will
prevail today once the morning ceilings scatter out. However,
expect MVFR ceilings and visibilities within areas of rain,
impacting primarily KABY and KDHN through midday. Overnight
tonight, expect more widespread low ceiling and fog development.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, with relatively light transport winds and deep
mixing heights. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not expected in the
foreseeable future.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  62  91  64  91 / 30  10  20  10  20
Panama City   81  67  84  68  85 / 10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        84  65  90  66  92 / 70  20  20  10  10
Albany        84  64  90  66  91 / 70  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      90  63  92  64  92 / 50  20  30  20  30
Cross City    88  63  88  65  89 / 10  10  20  10  30
Apalachicola  82  66  82  66  84 / 10   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Gould