Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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872 FXUS62 KTAE 171532 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1132 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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THE LARGE SWATH OF RAIN THAT WAS SITUATED OVER OUR AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THERE IS CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE GULF COAST NEAR PANAMA CITY. RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE AND WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HEAVY CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID AND HIGH 70S NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [433 AM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]... THE UNUSUALLY WET PATTERN FOR APRIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. .LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ON MONDAY WITH POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE THAT COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. .AVIATION... [THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY] IFR CIGS PREVAILED AT THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME, AND IFR-LIFR CIGS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TODAY, BUT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS INTO THE MVFR RANGE, BUT IFR-LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE AS THEY BECOME OFFSHORE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH. .HYDROLOGY... THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD, RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES IN LOCAL RIVER STAGES. IN PARTICULAR, THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE, APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE LOCAL ACTION STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WE EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT AN INCH IN NORTH FL, TO 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE- NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 77 66 84 69 81 / 70 30 40 50 70 PANAMA CITY 76 68 79 71 77 / 70 30 60 60 70 DOTHAN 74 63 79 67 77 / 60 30 60 80 70 ALBANY 71 62 79 66 78 / 60 30 40 60 70 VALDOSTA 73 64 84 67 81 / 70 30 40 30 70 CROSS CITY 79 66 84 67 83 / 70 30 40 30 60 APALACHICOLA 76 70 80 72 79 / 70 30 50 60 70
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD/HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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