Area Forecast Discussion
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360 FXUS62 KTAE 011431 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1031 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Light southeasterly flow in place this morning with warm and muggy conditions to start off September. Observational data from the KTAE/KJAX soundings shows a little more dry air has managed to move into the region underneath the mid level ridge. This should translate into less storm coverage today across the central and western portions of our region. However, with an energetic east coast sea breeze expected to interact with the Big Bend sea breeze late this afternoon, it appears as though the best chance for showers and storms will be late in the day/evening hours from Valdosta down to Cross City. These storms should weaken a few hours after sunset while moving into Apalachee Bay.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Tuesday]... VFR conditions will prevail though much of the day. TSRA will approach VLD late in the afternoon with VC groups used for now. Expect patchy MVFR vsbys to develop overnight once again.
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&& .Prev Discussion [226 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday]... Upper level high pressure will remain centered over or near the forecast area through the period. This will help to keep PoPs slightly below normal with correspondingly above normal temps. Overall coverage will be fairly uniform during the period, just slightly higher to the east on Tuesday. A TUTT will approach from the southeast and reach South FL by Wednesday. However, this feature will have little to no impact of the short-term forecast. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... The start of the period will be dominated by a ridge in place over the Southeast with normal chances of rain. Tropical moisture off the east coast of Florida will bring higher rain chances starting Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low 70s. .Marine... A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the waters keeping winds light and out of the east or southeast most of this week. Of course, the sea breeze will veer the winds to onshore each afternoon and evening near the coast. .Fire Weather... Despite drier air, relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds, preventing us from reaching red flag criteria this week. .Hydrology...River levels will remain at their below normal levels this week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 97 74 95 73 95 / 30 30 40 20 30 Panama City 92 78 91 77 91 / 20 20 30 20 30 Dothan 97 73 96 73 95 / 20 10 30 20 30 Albany 97 73 96 73 96 / 20 20 30 20 30 Valdosta 95 72 94 72 94 / 50 40 40 20 30 Cross City 95 72 93 71 93 / 50 50 40 20 30 Apalachicola 91 76 91 76 90 / 20 20 30 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

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