Area Forecast Discussion
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280 FXUS62 KTAE 271450 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.
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&& .Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal levels. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday and Thursday. .Aviation... [Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or less. .Marine... Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday. Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into early next week as the area of high pressure weakens. .Fire Weather... Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days, relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. .Hydrology... Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on Saturday.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 60 43 62 51 69 / 0 0 20 20 20 Panama City 57 47 58 50 65 / 0 0 20 20 20 Dothan 56 39 55 42 60 / 0 0 10 20 20 Albany 57 38 52 44 59 / 0 0 10 20 20 Valdosta 58 42 57 48 68 / 0 0 20 20 20 Cross City 62 45 61 53 74 / 0 0 40 20 20 Apalachicola 58 47 62 53 67 / 0 0 20 20 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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