Area Forecast Discussion
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545
FXUS62 KTAE 182338
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
738 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
No significant changes are needed to the previous forecast for
tonight.

A short wave over the Midwest will rotate into the base of an
eastern U.S. long wave trough which will help to drive a cold
front across the forecast area overnight. There is no
precipitation associated with this front. Clear skies and a
reinforced dry air mass will allow for a good diurnal range in
temps. This afternoon`s mid 80s will fall to the lower 50s before
daybreak Sunday. The normally cooler areas in AL and GA north of
Dothan to Albany line will drop into the upper 40s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Light west winds will shift to the north behind a cold
front later tonight and then become northeast on Sunday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [239 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
A slightly cooler airmass will prevail on Sunday and Monday behind
a dry cold frontal passage tonight. Dry weather is expected to
continue with temperatures within a few degrees of the seasonal
average.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will increase tonight and Sunday in the wake of a
dry cold front. Exercise caution conditions are likely late
tonight through midday tomorrow. Winds will diminish and become
easterly by Monday. Some increase in northeast wind is possible
again by Wednesday into Thursday.


.Fire Weather...
A dry cold front will cross the region overnight. However, it will
still not be dry enough to achieve red flag conditions over the next
couple of days.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  80  53  82  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   58  78  59  81  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        50  77  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  77  49  80  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      52  78  51  80  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    54  81  55  84  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  58  77  59  80  62 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/WOOL
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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