Area Forecast Discussion
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532 FXUS62 KTAE 151946 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 346 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Showers continue to push inland and coverage is expected to increase through the afternoon. Generally storm motion has been fairly quick, however, areas where storms linger, such as parts of Taylor and Dixie counties, have picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain so far. Showers will linger overnight with PoPs ranging from 30-50%. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... The main item of interest is the potential for heavy rain on Tuesday. There are some concerning factors that will aid in the heavy rain threat through Tuesday. There is deep tropical moisture in place with precipitable water values above 2 inches. There is some synoptic scale forcing moving in with an upper level trough, and there is a stalled frontal boundary in the area. The steering flow is also expected to be fairly weak through Tuesday, which could lead to some slow moving storms. The ensemble of CAM guidance places the greatest threat of heavy rainfall closest to the coast. This is also the area with the highest flash flood guidance values in general. The latest CAM ensemble probabilities indicate around a 20% chance of exceeding flash flood guidance values along coastal areas, with lesser chances farther inland. Given this, there was some thought given to issuing a flash flood watch for the coastal panhandle counties, but confidence is just not quite high enough to pull the trigger at this time. However, a mention of heavy rain was added to the forecast, and we will be monitoring trends closely through the night and cannot yet rule out the possibility of a watch at a later time. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Drier air in the wake of the upper level trough will dominate the first half of the period. Highs are expected to range from the mid 80s to near 90 with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Late in the period, another front may move in from the northwest with a slight increase in PoPs, but nothing significant is currently expected.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR is expected outside of thunderstorms where brief MVFR conditions are possible. Shower activity should decrease after sunset. Mentioned fog and low ceilings at sunrise at TLH, DHN, ABY and VLD.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will remain slightly elevated through Tuesday with a stalled front in the area. Some decrease is expected on Wednesday and Thursday as the winds become offshore. By the end of the week into the weekend, a strong ridge of high pressure will build northeast of the area, creating a pattern favorable for an increase in easterly winds and seas.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity values will be high this week, preventing us from reach red flag conditions.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Some locally heavy rain is possible tonight into Tuesday, especially near the coast with a stalled front in the area that will begin to move on Tuesday. General amounts of 1-3" are expected with isolated higher amounts expected. While this may cause some rises on our area rivers and streams, it is unlikely to bring any of them to flood stage, especially with the highest rainfall amounts expected closer to the coast. There is a possibility of some localized flash flooding through Tuesday if the heavier amounts fall over an urban area such as Panama City, but confidence is not quite high enough in this happening to put up a watch at this time. However, we will be monitoring trends closely for that possibility.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 72 89 70 92 68 / 50 70 30 10 10 Panama City 76 88 73 90 72 / 60 70 40 10 10 Dothan 71 88 68 91 65 / 40 60 20 10 0 Albany 71 89 70 91 65 / 50 60 30 10 0 Valdosta 70 88 69 91 65 / 50 70 30 20 10 Cross City 72 86 69 88 67 / 40 70 50 40 20 Apalachicola 77 87 73 89 71 / 50 70 50 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...WESTON MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...DVD

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