Area Forecast Discussion
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886 FXUS62 KTAE 261537 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1037 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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12 UTC surface analysis showed the cold front was clearing Florida with the surface low moving up through Eastern North Carolina. Much drier air was continuing to move into the region behind this front. High pressure across the western Gulf will move south of the region later this evening. With the mid level trough axis having passed to the east of the region, expect sunny and dry conditions today. Even with sunny skies, weak cool advection will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.
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&& .Prev Discussion [611 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most inland areas Friday morning. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Thursday] Once IFR ceilings clear ABY and VLD at the very start of the period, VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail for the rest of this TAF cycle. .Marine... Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the upcoming weekend. .Fire Weather... After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. .Hydrology... For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points are expected to remain below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 62 39 62 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 62 47 60 40 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 40 57 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 37 58 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 61 39 60 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 63 39 63 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 48 61 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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