Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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255 FXUS62 KTAE 290035 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 835 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGES SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. WE WILL SEE ONE MORE NIGHT OF CHILLY TEMPS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 30S OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUD COVER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND DEW POINTS ARE A BIT TOO LOW. WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, BUT FEEL THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON CAR WINDSHIELDS AND NOT POSE ANY REAL THREAT TO VEGETATION. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MID-LAYER CLOUD DECK IMPACTING DHN AND ABY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [405 PM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. .LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]... THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK. .MARINE... QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. .FIRE WEATHER... A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. .HYDROLOGY... RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY HOWEVER, TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 38 69 45 78 58 / 0 0 10 20 20 PANAMA CITY 44 66 57 74 63 / 0 0 10 20 20 DOTHAN 37 66 49 77 56 / 0 0 10 50 20 ALBANY 34 65 46 77 53 / 0 0 10 40 20 VALDOSTA 35 67 43 76 54 / 0 0 10 20 20 CROSS CITY 37 68 41 75 57 / 0 0 0 10 10 APALACHICOLA 44 65 55 74 63 / 0 0 0 20 20
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA-LEON. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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