Area Forecast Discussion
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053 FXUS62 KTAE 190624 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 224 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed 1012 mb low pressure system centered over Apalachee Bay. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a potent mid-upper tropospheric low over the FL Panhandle, which was wrapping drying, sinking air around it. The heavy rain has ended in our forecast area, but scattered showers and patchy drizzle will continue through much of the day. The occluding low will translate slowly east northeast, and although there will be a substantial dry slot aloft, there will be enough boundary layer moisture for the low cloud cover to remain all day...keeping high temperatures well below average (mid 60s, as opposed to climo highs in the lower 80s). There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm in North FL or South Central GA this afternoon due to steep lapse rates aloft. .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... The local area will still be experiencing some impact of the slowly departing Mid/Upper level shortwave trough tonight through Sunday. For tonight, we could see a few lingering showers mainly along and east of Albany to Cross City. Otherwise, we now believe that it will be mostly cloudy across the region through the remainder of the weekend due to wrap around moisture associated with this feature. Although it will be warmer Sunday, the clouds and offshore flow will keep temps below seasonal levels. Look for deep layer ridging, clearing skies and seasonal temps to start the work week. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06z Sunday] Widespread IFR to VLIFR cigs will be the rule throughout the morning. Patchy -DZ and even isolated SHRA are also possible. Cigs may finally reach low-end MVFR levels this afternoon- especially at KECP and KDHN. It`s unlikely that conditions will get much better than this, even this evening. Scattered SHRA and (even isolated TSRA near KVLD) will diminish by sunset. Surface winds will be N around 10 KT.
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&& .Marine...
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Advisory level conditions with gusty northwest winds will continue to spread from west to east across the coastal waters in the wake of a departing low pressure system. Winds and seas should gradually drop below headline criteria tonight with mostly light winds and low seas expected at least for the first half of next week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least Tuesday.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain already and the rain will last until late evening or even longer for the northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers are in minor flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage. The Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to reach major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint River and the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin to fall early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and will do so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get another 1-2 inches of rain today. A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF (Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 66 52 73 52 80 / 40 10 0 0 0 Panama City 67 53 74 57 78 / 30 10 0 0 0 Dothan 67 50 74 54 79 / 40 10 0 0 0 Albany 65 51 73 51 79 / 40 20 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 52 72 51 81 / 40 30 0 0 0 Cross City 71 53 76 52 80 / 30 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 65 54 72 56 75 / 30 10 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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