Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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635
FXUS62 KTAE 280840
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Surface high pressure currently centered over the Tennessee Valley
will settle into our area by this afternoon. Given the shallow
nature of the cold air mass, it is not surprising to see forecast
soundings with a frontal inversion around 2000-3000 ft GAL. The
limited mixing layer depth should keep temperatures somewhat cool
today despite abundant sunshine. Highs will be in the 50s, or around
10-15 degrees below normal.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The relatively cold weather pattern will continue tonight with a
light freeze for most inland areas along with areas of frost. On
Saturday, the surface ridge slides further east with low level flow
becoming onshore. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will be building in
from the west with deep layer ridging firmly in place on Sunday.
This will mean dry conditions along with a warming trend. Highs will
be in the mid 60s most areas Saturday and the lower to mid 70s on
Sunday. lows Saturday will be in the lower o mid 40s inland areas
and around 50 along the coast.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The deep layer ridging will begin to break down and move east as a
short wave trough approaches and enters our CAW Monday night and
Tuesday. However, with deep moisture lacking and weak upper level
forcing we currently don`t see much opportunity for rain with this
feature. As the trough passes to our east on Wednesday, the
mid/upper level flow becomes nearly zonal through the remainder of
the week. Lows will be near average through the period, generally in
the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs will also be near average, in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 12Z Saturday] FR conditions with unlimited ceilings and
visibility and light winds will prevail through the period.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory conditions will persist beyond 20 NM offshore through
this morning, followed by a decrease in winds and seas for the
weekend into early this week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A moderately dry air mass will linger over the region through the
weekend, but RH will not reach critical levels.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Matchlock River is cresting at Thomas ville about 2 feet above
action stage. As this water further moves downstream toward Concord
and Havana, expect these sites to similarly crest above action stage
late on Sunday or early on Monday. The Little River in Sen GA is
continuing to rise with a crest expected late this weekend above
action stage at Hiram. Water in this and the Chattahoochee will
contribute to rises downstream into the middle SUWANNEE, but these
rises will be minor and stay well below action stage. Elsewhere, our
river points have crested from earlier rains, with the exception of
the lower portions of the Choctaw and Apalachicola Rivers.
With no significant rain expected for the next week, no additional
river issues are anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee   56  30  66  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  41  65  51  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  34  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        53  31  64  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      54  32  65  40  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    58  31  68  41  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  42  64  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.ATE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from SUWANNEE River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to DESTIN FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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