Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 240157
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Current fcst is fairly well on track, and only significant change
was to increase the cloud cover to account for the advancing
cirrus and cirrostratus out ahead of the next dry cold front.
However, this cloudiness should move through fast enough overnight
to have minimal impacts on overnight low temps.
[Through 00Z Saturday] Outside of the high cloudiness, the
persistent VFR conditions with light winds will continue at the
terminals through the period.
.Prev Discussion [317 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 44 79 44 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 53 78 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 45 77 46 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 45 78 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 44 77 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 45 79 46 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 51 77 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 0