Area Forecast Discussion
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571
FXUS62 KTAE 101511
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1111 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a few days of active afternoons and evenings, the weather
pattern is beginning to change with some drier air moving in aloft
and a weak mid level ridge building in across the region today.
Both of these features should limit convection this afternoon.
The favored areas for storms look should be in the Florida Big
Bend and into coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle with the
enhancement of the afternoon sea breeze. Max temperatures will be
warmer today with more sunshine, so expect highs in the lower 90s
across the region.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]...
After widespread LIFR conditions at DHN/ABY/VLD, stratus is
finally dissipating with ABY/DHN likely to become VFR by 17z.
With iso-sct tsra this afternoon near TLH/ECP included a VCTS at
these sites.

&&

.Prev Discussion [217 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

A narrow, east-northeast to west southwest 500 mb ridge is forecast
by both the GFS and ECMWF to be over our forecast area through the
period. At the surface, our forecast area will near the western
periphery of the Bermuda ridge. A tropical wave will move from the
Bahamas to South FL on Friday. With little if any Q-G forcing, most
of the forcing for deep moist convection will come from mesoscale
boundaries, most of which (like the sea/land breeze fronts) will be
diurnally driven. Deep layer moisture, though not as rich as what
we`ve observed here the past several days, will be sufficient to
support isolated to scattered showers & thunderstorms each day. Our
PoP is in the 20 to 40 range, which is near climatology. Highs will
be in the lower to mid 90s (a little above average), with lows in
the 70s.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The upper ridge will be weakened by a tropical wave that will pass
south of the area across the Gulf of Mexico. Once the wave axis
passes west of the region, we will see an increase in deep layer
moisture. A front will also stall just northwest of the forecast
area. These features will increase rain chances somewhat over the
weekend, but particularly into early next week.


.Marine...

Winds will be generally light from the east or south (during the
afternoons near the coast) as the coastal waters become situated
near the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge. Some increase in
winds & seas is possible Saturday as a tropical wave moves into the
Southeast Gulf of Mexico.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming weekend.


.Hydrology...

With faster steering winds and a less deep layer moisture than in
recent days, the threat of flash flooding appears low. With recent
rains, some heavy, many of the local rivers have risen above their
unusually low stages. However, we do not expect them to reach action
stage due to the isolated to scattered nature of the rain expected
over the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  72  94  72  94 /  30  10  30  10  30
Panama City   89  76  90  76  91 /  40  10  30  10  30
Dothan        91  71  93  72  94 /  30  20  20  10  30
Albany        91  72  94  73  95 /  20  10  20  10  30
Valdosta      92  71  93  72  94 /  30  20  30  10  30
Cross City    92  71  93  71  92 /  40  20  30  20  40
Apalachicola  89  77  88  76  90 /  30  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER






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