Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 031559
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1059 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
12 UTC analysis indicated a warm front over the northern GOM with
dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s along and south of the
front. The axis of higher dewpoints extended north into the lower
Mississippi river valley just west of the FL panhandle. A weak
upper air disturbance combined with warm air advection continues
to produce showers across the FL panhandle and far SE Alabama
moving into southwest Georgia. These showers will continue through
the afternoon with the possibility of a weak shortlived
thunderstorm as daytime heating increases. Expect showers to
generally dissipate around sunset.
Primary concern for tonight is extent of fog. Guidance so far is
indicating a good chance of advection fog off of the gulf with mid
60s to lower 70s dewpoints advecting over the cooler water
temperatures in the lower 60s, combined with radiation fog. At
this point it looks like the most likely area would be from Panama
City east across the Big Bend as well as inland areas. Will
evaluate this further this afternoon.
Also bumped up max temperatures today a couple of degrees.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The short term period will feature ridging building aloft through
at least Thursday with low level southerly flow. This pattern will
tend to support widespread development of fog/low clouds by
midnight each night and then persisting into the morning hours.
The forecast each day is largely contingent on how quickly the
morning fog/low clouds mix out, which can be challenging to
predict. Given the building ridge across the region, if early
morning cloud cover clears out quickly enough, max temperatures
could easily approach or exceed 80 degrees, especially on
Thursday. Record highs for this time of year are generally in the
Rain chances are relatively low throughout the period, though some
isolated showers each afternoon are possible, especially on
Thursday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves near the
northwestern portion of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
The west/east trough/ridge pattern will continue through most of
the extended range. The strong ridge will hold enough of a grip
locally to allow for several days of near 80 degree temperatures.
The trough will make only gradual eastward progress after multiple
impulses eat away at the ridge. At the surface, between the trough
and ridge a quasi-stationary front will inch closer to the region.
This will be a focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms with
each passing impulse. Expect the area of showers to remain rather
broad, possibly spreading into our northwest forecast area. Thus,
through the weekend, have kept a northwest to southeast PoP
gradient with essentially no rain expected southeast of a line
from Tifton to Apalachicola.
.AVIATION [Beginning 16Z Tuesday]...
Updated at 1100 am EST- Where there were breaks in the mid layer
clouds early this morning, patchy fog and/or low clouds formed but
have largely dissipated. Scattered SHRA continued to develop
around KDHN, KECP, and KABY, and will continue into this afternoon
before tapering off. Brief MVFR vis/cigs are possible in heavier
SHRA, otherwise the prevailing conditions will be VFR into this
evening. Conditions appear favorable for widespread dense fog
and/or low cigs later tonight, so we expect VLIFR conditions at
all terminals, possibly interfering with landing minimums.
Southerly flow at 15 knots or less will persist through the
forecast period. A cold front will approach the marine area on
Saturday evening, but should stall north of the waters. Sea fog
will be a possibility each night and early morning near the coast
starting Tuesday night.
Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
With no significant rainfall this week, river levels will continue
to drop after last week`s rains.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 57 78 63 79 / 20 10 10 10 20
Panama City 71 62 74 66 74 / 50 10 10 10 20
Dothan 72 57 79 64 80 / 60 20 10 10 20
Albany 71 56 78 62 79 / 60 20 10 10 20
Valdosta 72 57 79 60 80 / 20 10 10 10 20
Cross City 74 56 78 59 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 68 62 71 65 71 / 20 10 10 10 10