Area Forecast Discussion
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265
FXUS62 KTAE 181942
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The pattern described earlier this morning remains essentially
unchanged with a mid/upper ridge to our south, and a shortwave
trough just to our northwest and covering much of the central
and eastern parts of the country. A quasi-stationary boundary
along the northern Gulf coast (extending into our panhandle
counties) is beginning to transition to a warm front and lift
north with a little push from the afternoon seabreezes, but more
so due to the development and approach of a surface low over
central Louisiana. A few scattered storms will be possible late
this afternoon and evening across our far western Florida and
Alabama counties as convection initiating along the front moves
northeast. Though the weakening trend as the storms move north
should continue as they enter a more unfavorable airmass. With the
main front remaining to our west overnight, expect convection to
do the same. PoP`s will begin to increase over our area tomorrow,
discussed below.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The upper trough over the Mississippi Valley today will slide
eastward over the weekend bringing a return of unsettled weather to
the region. Low to mid level flow will be out of the WSW, a
favorable directly for higher coverage of sea breeze convection.
However, synoptic influences will also be in play with a remnant
front dissecting the CWA and impulses rotating through the mean
trough. Deep layer shear will be above typical summertime levels on
Saturday. However, mid level lapse rates will be poor and low level
instability will be limited by abundant cloud cover. Still, one or
two strong storms cannot be ruled out over our FL Panhandle coastal
zones and the marine area. A bigger concern will be locally heavy
rain. 48-hr QPF could be over 3 inches over our far northwestern
zones with a much larger area over 2 inches. PoPs will be in the
likely category for most of the area and max temps will mainly be
held in the 80s with 90s restricted to the eastern FL Big Bend.
Sunday will see more typical distribution of scattered storms and
seasonal temps.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A wet pattern will be prevailing over our CWA through the long term
as we will be in the weakness between two large longwave ridges, one
over the Atlantic, and one over the Western CONUS. This weakness
will allow the area to be under the influence of deep layer
southerly flow which will give good rain chances for all parts of
the forecast region. Further adding to the weakness will be a cut
off upper low that the GFS and Euro indicate could drop down from
the mean 250mb flow Monday afternoon. As this rotates SW around the
ridge, it will further fortify our rain chances throughout the long
term especially Monday-Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions will prevail to begin the TAF, and for most of the
night. By early morning, scattered MVFR ceilings will overspread
ECP and DHN from the west, with conditions deteriorating elsewhere
just outside of the TAF period.

&&

.Marine...

Low pressure west of the area will briefly increase winds and seas
over the waters west of Apalachicola through Saturday. By Sunday and
beyond, a weak pressure pattern more typical for the summer months
will return. This will result in light winds and low seas from
Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days as moisture levels drastically increase along with
rain chances.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rain chances will increase through the weekend. Isolated rainfall
totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western
half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches
through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts should not be widespread
enough to cause any river flooding, though some localized issues
in flood prone areas are possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  89  72  91  73 /  10  70  30  50  40
Panama City   75  86  75  89  76 /  20  70  40  50  40
Dothan        72  87  72  90  72 /  20  70  40  50  30
Albany        73  87  71  91  72 /  10  70  40  50  40
Valdosta      71  89  70  91  72 /  10  50  40  50  40
Cross City    71  91  72  91  72 /  10  40  30  50  40
Apalachicola  75  86  74  90  75 /  10  70  40  50  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








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