467
FXUS62 KTAE 171320
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013

.NEAR TERM [Today]...
Early morning fog across the Florida Panhandle continues to slowly
erode this morning, with only lingering patchy fog around Panama
City westward to De Funiak Springs. At the surface, our region
remains to the west of a surface high pressure ridge. Aloft, a
disturbance is moving through the Tennessee River Valley. With
limited deep layer moisture, as noted on the morning sounding, any
showers and storms will be isolated at worst, and likely remain
to the north of our region today.

Still expect a good sea breeze circulation this afternoon which
will result in temperatures a good 5 to 8 degrees cooler at the
coast (lower 80s) than sites further inland where upper 80s to
near 90 degrees are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Very Little change in thinking from the previous forecast, as 90
degree High Temperatures appear in store for much of the interior of
our CWA over the upcoming weekend. The one fly in the ointment will
be the eastward progress of a closed Upper Level Low which is now
moving through the lower MS Valley. The trof associated with this
Low will likely provide just enough lift and instability to produce
20-30 percent PoPs during the afternoon hours, especially across
northern and eastern portions of the region, before Upper Level
Ridging builds in from the west thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12z Friday]...
Lingering fog dissipating quickly this morning. Only ECP shows
LIFR conditions as of 13z, but this will improve quickly. VFR all
sites after 14z with another round of fog expected overnight,
potentially once again into the IFR/LIFR range.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor
enhancements near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, red flag conditions are not
anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  61  90  64  90 /  0   0  20  10  20
Panama City   81  67  83  67  83 / 10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        87  65  89  66  89 / 10  10  20  20  20
Albany        88  65  90  65  89 / 10  10  30  20  30
Valdosta      89  63  91  63  90 /  0  10  20  20  30
Cross City    86  62  88  63  88 /  0   0  20  10  30
Apalachicola  79  65  81  67  81 /  0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey