Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 120048
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A broad upper-level trough currently resides over the eastern half
of the CONUS, with an associated weak shortwave that is currently
passing through our region. High clouds that had been aided by this
feature will decrease in coverage overnight as the shortwave exits
to our east. At the surface, an axis of high pressure near the Gulf
Coast will remain in place overnight, resulting in calm winds and
mostly clear skies. With the expected decrease in cloud cover and
light to calm winds, radiational cooling should be fairly efficient
and some patchy fog will be possible during the early morning
Saturday. Due to the lack of moisture in our region and possible
lingering high clouds, however, fog is not expected to be
widespread. Overnight lows are expected to range from the lower 50s
inland to the upper 50s in coastal regions.
[Through 00Z Sunday]...
Some scattered high clouds may persist overnight, with light to calm
winds expected. Brief patchy fog is possible at all terminals from
09Z-13Z Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period, with SE winds near or below 10 kt
Saturday afternoon and mostly clear skies expected across our region.
.Prev Discussion [248 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A surface ridge of high pressure will remain in place through the
weekend and keep conditions mild and pleasant ahead of the next
weather system arriving early next week /see extended discussion below/.
Light southeast winds will begin influx of higher RH by Sunday
which could support patchy fog both Saturday and Sunday mornings
around the region. This will also result in overnight lows
warming a bit through the weekend. Afternoon highs are expected to
top out in the lower to mid 80s away from the immediate beaches
with overnight lows in the lower 50s Sat morning and around 60 to
start the day Sunday. Sea breeze circulations should become well
established each afternoon given the cool shelf waters and land
temps in the lower 80s, keeping the beaches a bit cooler. Rain
chances are expected to remain slim to none until perhaps late
Sunday night into Monday.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Guidance is in general agreement with a trough developing over the
central portion of the country early next week. However, there are
still timing/strength difference in the handling of the two main
shortwaves that will be responsible for generating the trough. The
GFS is a little weaker and keeps the best instability and shear out
of phase through Tuesday, resulting in a lesser severe threat. The
00z ECMWF was a little more bullish on the potential for strong to
severe storms. Regardless of the severe threat, it does appear that
another round of significant rainfall will impact the region on
Monday and Tuesday.
Thereafter, the pattern is forecast to become a bit less
progressive, with a ridge building off the east coast and surface
high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard. This will result in
a more easterly to northeasterly flow pattern, and the potential for a
few showers to move back into the region late in the work week.
Benign conditions will be the norm to start the weekend as high
pressure remains in place. Late Sunday into Monday winds and waves will
begin increasing ahead of our next weather system expected to
bring increasing winds and seas, along with a good chance of
showers/thunderstorms early next week.
Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through the
weekend, with RH values remaining above critical levels. Transport
winds are forecast to increase by Sunday, with dispersion values
rising above 75 for much of the region.
Modest rises are still occurring across portions of the lower
Choctawhatchee River, Apalachicola River, Flint River, Ochlockonee
River, and Steinhatchee Rivers. The next chance of rainfall is on
Monday into Tuesday. The system currently appears progressive
enough to prevent excessive rainfall, but rainfall amounts may be
enough to temporarily halt some of the river falls.
The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 53 82 56 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 58 76 62 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 53 81 57 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 54 82 55 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 55 85 55 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 56 83 55 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 58 77 61 76 64 / 0 0 0 0 10