Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 111451
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
An upper level shortwave trough will move through the area today.
There are currently high clouds over most of the CWA, particularly
near the Gulf Coast. At the sfc, high pressure centered over the
mid-Mississippi Valley is bringing northerly flow and cool dry air
to the region. Cloud cover will decrease during the afternoon hours
as the trough moves further away. High temperatures will continue to
be on the cool side, generally in the mid to upper 50s.
.Prev Discussion [220 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
With a trough in place along the eastern seaboard generating deep
northerly flow across the forecast area, expect to see a
continuation of the dry and seasonably cool weather through
Saturday. Highs are expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Friday and Saturday afternoons, with morning lows hovering around
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The amplified upper pattern will translate eastward during the
latter half of the weekend, with an upper ridge moving from the
Central Plains towards the Appalachians. However, with a weak
pressure gradient in place and neglible return flow (along with
the proximity of the winter solstice), the airmass will be very
slow to modify, keeping temperatures a little below climo for both
Sunday and Monday.
An upper low will eject from the Desert Southwest by Monday
morning and push towards western Tennessee by Monday night.
Guidance is in better agreement this morning with deamplifying the
upper low with time and carrying the bulk of the system well north
of the forecast area. The trailing front will cross the forecast
area on Tuesday, bringing some chance of rain. However, with the
best dynamics remaining well north and the lack of deep moisture
(from the aforementioned minimal return flow), a significant
rainfall event is not likely with just scattered PoPs in the
[Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with light northwesterly flow.
Winds will generally remain out of the north into the weekend as
high pressure holds in place northwest of the waters. Winds may
occasionally reach 15 knots during the overnight hours the next
few days. Winds will weaken late in the weekend as high pressure
builds over the waters before turning onshore early next week.
Relative humidity values will approach critical levels during the
afternoon hours through Saturday. However, durations are unlikely
to be met. Thus red flag conditions are unlikely for the next few
With all rivers below action stage and no rain expected for
through the weekend, there are no flooding concerns.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 58 31 62 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 59 40 62 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 57 34 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 56 31 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 57 31 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 60 31 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 59 38 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 0