Area Forecast Discussion
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158
FXUS62 KTAE 220148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The evening analysis shows a weak upper level trough closing off
across the southeast states with a plume of deep layer moisture
over the local area. Although convection overall is on a
weakening trend, area radars still do show some very light returns
which may be sprinkles or drizzle across portions of the area.
This may continue through midnight. Late tonight, the ensemble of
CAM guidance shows convection developing offshore once again and
moving near the coast around dawn. This time, it may be centered a
bit farther east near the Apalachee Bay area.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday] With plenty of deep moisture in place
across the region, MVFR cigs will be possible during the late
night hours. VFR conditions should prevail at all terminals by
mid-morning Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the late morning into the afternoon, especially at KTLH,
KABY, and KVLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [322 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The short term period will be marked by a gradual decrease in active
convection. Local area located between high to east and low to
west. The upper high over Wrn Atlc builds Wwd into Ern FL thru the
period. In response, H5 low embedded in trough over Srn AL with
deep layer low near MOB Tues begins to retrograde slowly Wwd and
open up to reach Srn LA on Wed and the LWR MS Valley Wed night.
Locally, expect modest increase in subsidence especially on Wed.
At surface, assocd low/trough also shifts Wwd from Srn MS/AL and
weakens thru period allowing ridge to sink slowly Swd and build
Wwd across Cntrl Gulf of Mex. Locally this favors continued onshore
flow, PWATS remaining near 2 inches and a weak pressure pattern
yielding mainly aftn/eve seabreeze generated convection. While no
strong to severe tstms are expected due to extensive cloud cover
and lack of adequate destabilization, some additional heavy
rainfall will be possible especially on Tues with focus shifting
to Ern counties.

Will go with 30-60% SW-NE POPs Tues, 10-50% W-E Tues night, 30-40%
Wed and 20-30% Wed night. Once again, high temperatures will vary
quite a bit from location to location and be highly dependent on
breaks in the cloudiness. Expect highs in the low 90s Tues, low to
mid 90s Wed. Lows at night in low 70s except for mid to a few upper
70s near the immediate coast.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The large scale pattern commences rather amplified with ridging over
west, troughing over east and ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. At
surface, ridge from Wrn Atlc to over local region with cold front
draped over mid-south. During the rest of the period, Wrn ridge
shifts Ewd with downstream trough pivoting and deepening Ewd over
local region on Fri before lifting Newd and flattening Sat into Sun.
Front inches swd shunting Gulf ridge further Swd allowing for a
return to a more WLY flow and normal summer time seabreeze dominated
regime. Will go with generally 30-40% aftn/eve POPs thru the period.
Expect highs generally in the low to mid 90s, lows low to mid 70s.


.Marine...
A low pressure system now in the vicinity of our western coastal
waters will begin to dissipate tonight. This will result in the
return of a weaker pressure pattern more typical for summertime,
which should result in generally light winds and low seas for the
remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected this week.


.Hydrology...
Additional rainfall concerns for any potential minor flooding or
rises along some of our area rivers and streams in the Florida
Panhandle (such as Mossy Head which could potentially reach minor
flood stage today with around 2.5" of additional rainfall) will
gradually decrease as the higher amounts begin to lessen and shift
eastward next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  72  93  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
Panama City   75  89  75  89  77 /  40  40  20  30  20
Dothan        72  91  72  93  72 /  20  40  20  30  20
Albany        71  92  72  93  72 /  10  50  30  30  20
Valdosta      71  91  71  95  72 /  10  50  50  40  30
Cross City    72  92  72  93  72 /  20  60  40  30  30
Apalachicola  75  87  74  89  78 /  50  40  20  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS






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