Area Forecast Discussion
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173
FXUS62 KTAE 181400
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A short wave over the Midwest will rotate into the base of an
eastern U.S. trough which will help to drive a cold front closer
to the area today. There is no precipitation associated with this
front. The 12Z KTAE sounding confirms that a very dry airmass
remains in place over the forecast area at all levels. Sunny skies
and this dry air will allow temps to rise quickly today with most
inland areas peaking in the mid 80s this afternoon. No changes
were necessary to the forecast. Enjoy the classic autumn weather
today.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday] With the exception of a brief period of MVFR
visibility Saturday morning, VFR conditions will prevail under
mostly clear skies through the period. Winds will be light
westerly becoming northerly in the wake of dry cold front later
today and tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [213 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Upper trough moving through the eastern U.S. will drive a dry cold
front through the area tonight, ushering in a slightly cooler
airmass for Sunday and Monday. Following the cold front, expect
temperatures to be near seasonal normals with highs in the upper
70s to around 80 and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in eventually carving out
a broad 500 mb low that will be centered over the Mid Atlantic
Region mid to late week. Our forecast area will be under the
influence of dry, northwest flow aloft for much of this period. A
weak, dry cold front will pass through our region on Wednesday,
bringing a reinforcing surge of slightly cooler, drier air. High
temperatures will be near average Monday (mid 70s to around 80), a
little above average Tuesday (lower to mid 80s), then near average
for the remainder of the week (mid to upper 70s). Lows will be
near average (lower to mid 50s) through Wednesday, then a little
below average (upper 40s) for the remainder of the week. PoPs will
be 10% or less.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will increase tonight and Sunday in the wake of a
cold front. Exercise caution conditions will be possible late
tonight into through midday tomorrow. Winds will diminish and
become easterly by Monday and remain below headline criteria
through mid-week.


.Fire Weather...
There are no fire weather concerns at this time.


.Hydrology...
For the most part the crest waves from the heavy rain on Tuesday
have already occurred or were beginning to decline, and did so
below action stage. The exception is the Choctawhatchee River near
Bruce, which is forecast to reach action stage on Sunday, but
still remain about 3 ft below flood stage. Otherwise, having had a
dry period since Wednesday, and expecting no rain through next
week, there are no river issues.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  52  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   84  58  78  59  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        84  50  76  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        85  49  77  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      85  52  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  53  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  82  59  77  60  79 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER






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