Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 252124
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A potent shortwave currently extending across the Missouri and Lower
Mississippi Valley regions will dive into the southeastern states
tonight further amplifying the long wave trough along the eastern
seaboard. The associated cold front will push from northwest to
southeast across the Tri-state area overnight. This system will
bring extensive cloud cover along with a slight to low end chance
for light rain over the Big Bend and Valdosta region. Due to the
cloud cover and northwest winds around 10 mph, min temps won`t
be as cold as this mornings lows. Temps by daybreak will be around
40 degrees for northern zones and lower to mid 40s south.
.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
By Monday morning, a cold front will be just downstream of the CWA.
This means cool, dry northerly winds at the sfc and wrap around
moisture lingering in the mid/upper levels. Skies will clear out by
Monday afternoon for the southern half of the CWA. Clouds will
linger until the evening hours for the AL and GA counties. Winds
will be gusty in the afternoon hours (up to 25 mph). Highs will be
in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. Northerly winds will continue for
the rest of this forecast period due to high pressure over the
Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low 60s. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 30s.
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Wednesday and Thursday will be high pressure over the Southeast.
Thursday night into Friday morning a cold front will move
through bringing a slight chance of rain. Friday afternoon/evening
high pressure will build in from the northwest. By Sunday, a
developing Gulf Low will bring clouds and a slight chance of rain.
Highs will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s as pressure systems
come and go. Lows will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s as
cloud cover varies.
[Through 18Z Monday]
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period.
Winds will be gusty this afternoon and will decrease after sunset.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for tonight and tomorrow.
Southwesterly winds will shift to northwesterly by Monday morning.
Sustained winds will likely reach 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots
possible briefly in the outer waters. By Tuesday morning, winds will
be moderate and northerly winds, but may exceed 20 knots again
Tuesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday morning winds will
Even though afternoon relative humidities will
remain fairly low throughout much of the upcoming week, conditions
will not yet become favorable enough for any Red Flag concerns.
While many area rivers have risen due to Friday`s rain, only the
Aucilla River at Lamont is forecast to reach flood stage in the next
few days. It will reach minor flood stage this evening and crest at
54.9 feet on Tuesday. Within the next week, more minor flooding will
be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee, and Kinchafoonee
rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 43 57 37 64 38 / 20 0 0 0 0
Panama City 48 57 42 63 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 41 54 36 61 36 / 10 10 0 0 0
Albany 41 55 35 61 35 / 10 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 43 57 37 63 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cross City 44 59 37 64 40 / 40 20 0 0 0
Apalachicola 48 57 41 63 43 / 20 0 0 0 0
FL...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 7
AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.
RIP CURRENT RISK until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday
for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.