083
FXUS62 KTAE 161844
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM EDT Thu May 16 2013

.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
We will continue to trend towards normal tonight with mostly clear
skies and calm winds, along with a general increase in relative
humidity. This increase in RH may also provide areas of fog early
Friday morning for much of nrn FL into southeast AL/swrn GA, which
should burn off quickly after sunrise. Low temps in the lower 60s
will be common around the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday through Sunday]...
The closed low (currently over OK) is expected to translate slowly
eastward across the Southeast U.S. through this weekend. However,
the bulk of the deep layer moisture and Q-G forcing associated with
this feature is likely to be north of our forecast area. This will
leave our region with PoPs in the 20-30% range, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when instability and mesoscale boundary
interactions are maximized. It will finally feel like late Spring,
as highs approach 90 deg and lows stay in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18z Thursday]...
Forecast guidance indicates the increase in RH overnight will
likely support low clouds and areas of fog around the area. This
should bring a 4-5 hr window MVFR and possible IFR conditions for
all sites late tonight into early Friday morning. Expect return to
VFR and light ssw winds will occur by mid morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be at their typically low late spring/early
summertime values. Winds and inland water chop may increase at the
coast during the afternoon hours due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   61  88  61  88  64 /  0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   66  82  67  83  69 /  0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        62  88  65  88  67 /  0  10  10  10  10
Albany        62  89  64  90  65 /  0  10  10  20  20
Valdosta      61  87  63  88  63 /  0  10  10  10  20
Cross City    61  88  62  88  63 /  0   0  10  20  10
Apalachicola  64  80  65  81  67 /  0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Evans
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier/Block
HYDROLOGY...Fournier