Area Forecast Discussion
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705
FXUS62 KTAE 201537
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1137 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ALOFT CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIES OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND NW MEXICO WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE SERN CONUS AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THE SURFACE, A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THIS IS TRAPPING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HELPED PRODUCE LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. AS THESE LOWER CLOUDS
LIFT, HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE LAND AS
RAIN CHANCES ENTER FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PART OF A
LARGE SWATH OF CLOUD COVER CAUSED BY THE JET BETWEEN THE TWO
UPPER LEVEL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY] VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AND MVFR-IFR CIGS ARE
BEGINNING TO LIFT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 08Z...WHEN MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [357 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
A FRONTAL ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD UNTIL A
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTS FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. UNTIL THIS OCCURS, RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A SEA BREEZE INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN THE FLORIDA ZONES, TAPERING DOWN
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE FILTERED IN.

BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE ADDED
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS ARE INCREASED TO
80 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TAPERING DOWN TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT
OVER THE MARINE AREA. RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE STORM SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER,
THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY,
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MORE
MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER AN AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF MARCH (GFS) OR REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA (EURO). FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP POPS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

WHILE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH,
THESE PREDICTED NUMBERS ARE STILL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ANOTHER WARMUP SHOULD START BY THURSDAY.


.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF RATHER LOW WINDS AND SEAS EVEN WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.


.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGH.


.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE
ORGANIZED CHANCES OF RAIN BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS
NEARING 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THESE
AMOUNTS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME RIVER POINTS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO APPROACH OR EXCEED ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   84  65  83  65  79 /  30  20  50  50  60
PANAMA CITY   77  66  78  65  72 /  20  20  30  60  60
DOTHAN        81  63  81  61  75 /  50  30  30  60  80
ALBANY        79  63  80  61  72 /  30  30  30  50  80
VALDOSTA      83  65  83  63  78 /  20  20  40  40  80
CROSS CITY    83  64  85  64  78 /  10  10  30  20  40
APALACHICOLA  76  66  79  67  71 /  10  20  30  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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