Area Forecast Discussion
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280
FXUS62 KTAE 160124
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
924 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 00Z TAE sounding showed a PWAT of 2.11", about 30% above normal
for this time of year. With this moisture, plus sea-breeze and a
decaying frontal boundary across the southeast, and enough
instability to keep storms going, we`ve had another rainy day across
the forecast area. Rainfall totals have been around 1-2" for the
most part with a few spots reaching 2.5-4" totals. The storms are
winding down for the evening, with convection now focused mostly
over the coastal waters. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]  MVFR-IFR conditions will be possible in the
early hours of Tuesday morning everywhere but ECP, clearing out by
around 15Z. Showers and thunderstorms across the area once again
will make MVFR conditions likely when on top of local terminals.


&&

.Prev Discussion [346 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The main item of interest is the potential for heavy rain on
Tuesday. There are some concerning factors that will aid in the
heavy rain threat through Tuesday. There is deep tropical moisture
in place with precipitable water values above 2 inches. There is
some synoptic scale forcing moving in with an upper level trough,
and there is a stalled frontal boundary in the area. The steering
flow is also expected to be fairly weak through Tuesday, which
could lead to some slow moving storms. The ensemble of CAM
guidance places the greatest threat of heavy rainfall closest to
the coast. This is also the area with the highest flash flood
guidance values in general. The latest CAM ensemble probabilities
indicate around a 20% chance of exceeding flash flood guidance
values along coastal areas, with lesser chances farther inland.
Given this, there was some thought given to issuing a flash flood
watch for the coastal panhandle counties, but confidence is just
not quite high enough to pull the trigger at this time. However, a
mention of heavy rain was added to the forecast, and we will be
monitoring trends closely through the night and cannot yet rule
out the possibility of a watch at a later time.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Drier air in the wake of the upper level trough will dominate the
first half of the period. Highs are expected to range from the mid
80s to near 90 with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Late in the
period, another front may move in from the northwest with a
slight increase in PoPs, but nothing significant is currently
expected.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will remain slightly elevated through Tuesday with
a stalled front in the area. Some decrease is expected on
Wednesday and Thursday as the winds become offshore. By the end
of the week into the weekend, a strong ridge of high pressure will
build northeast of the area, creating a pattern favorable for an
increase in easterly winds and seas.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will be high this week, preventing us
from reach red flag conditions.


.Hydrology...
Some locally heavy rain is possible tonight into Tuesday,
especially near the coast with a stalled front in the area that
will begin to move on Tuesday. General amounts of 1-3" are
expected with isolated higher amounts expected. While this may
cause some rises on our area rivers and streams, it is unlikely to
bring any of them to flood stage, especially with the highest
rainfall amounts expected closer to the coast. There is a
possibility of some localized flash flooding through Tuesday if
the heavier amounts fall over an urban area such as Panama City,
but confidence is not quite high enough in this happening to put
up a watch at this time. However, we will be monitoring trends
closely for that possibility.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  89  70  92  68 /  30  70  30  10  10
Panama City   76  88  73  90  72 /  40  70  40  10  10
Dothan        71  88  68  91  65 /  30  60  20  10   0
Albany        71  89  70  91  65 /  30  60  30  10   0
Valdosta      70  88  69  91  65 /  30  70  30  20  10
Cross City    72  86  69  88  67 /  30  70  50  40  20
Apalachicola  77  87  73  89  71 /  40  70  50  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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