Area Forecast Discussion
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577
FXUS62 KTAE 110701
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The large scale pattern is marked by near zonal flow. At
surface...strong high off mid-Atlc with ridging Swwd across Gulf
region. Locally this translates to Sly flow at lowest levels with
SW then WLY flow above. With veering flow and slightly more humid
conditions in last 12-24 hrs (24 hr dew point comparisons show
local airmass 2 (east) to 8 (west) degrees higher. RAP13 soundings
reflect this with PWATS inching up to around 0.8 inches this
afternoon. Very weak local gradient will allow development of
seabreeze which will bring some afternoon Cu clouds inland
and...with cool shelf waters... temper coastal temperatures a few
degrees. Expect highs from around 75 at the coast to 80 elsewhere.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will remain centered near or just east of the region
throughout the short term period. This will result in a period
of dry and warm conditions with temperatures near to slightly
above average. The model guidance does show a sea breeze
developing along the coast each afternoon, which will likely
result in temperatures near the beaches being a few degrees cooler
in the afternoon given how cool the shelf waters remain.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...
The primary focus in the long term period will be on an
approaching storm system in the Monday through Tuesday Evening
time frame. While the models are reasonably synced on the timing
of this system bringing the bulk of the rain through on Monday
afternoon and overnight, there are subtle differences with respect
to the intensity of the system. Most of the models prefer a weaker
solution with a cold front coming through early Tuesday morning
with little prospect for severe weather or widespread heavy rain.
The Euro tries to develop a more potent wave in the southern
stream, resulting in a stronger system. For now, have kept the
system more progressive and weaker. In any event, should be a good
rain producer with 1 to 1.5 inches possible. Thereafter, drier and
cooler conditions return for the remainder of the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] VFR conditions will dominate this TAF
period. Expect light southerly winds to bring some afternoon Cu
clouds onshore. Lack of low-level moisture will inhibit fog
development.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure will remain in place across the marine area
throughout much of the weekend. By Sunday, as high pressure moves
into the Western Atlantic, the tightening gradient between this
high and an approaching storm system will result in increasing
winds and seas by the first of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Light onshore flow through Sunday will allow enough low-level
moisture to keep minimum humidity values above critical levels.
The airmass will noticeably moisten up on Monday with the next
weather system. No red flag concerns are expected thru that time.

&&

.Hydrology...
Nearly all of the rivers across the northern portion of our area
have crested and continue to fall. Rises are still occurring
farther to the south across portions of the lower Choctawhatchee
River, Apalachicola River, Flint River, Ochlockonee River, and
Steinhatchee River. The next chance of rainfall is on Monday into
Tuesday. The system currently appears progressive enough to
prevent excessive rainfall, but rainfall amounts may be enough to
temporarily halt some of the river falls.

The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  52  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   76  58  78  61  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        78  54  82  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        80  53  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  53  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    81  53  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  56  78  61  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...DVD




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