Area Forecast Discussion
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998
FXUS62 KTAE 240101
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
901 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Isolated convection has almost diminished for the evening. After
another sweltering day with some daily record high temperatures
observed, it will be another muggy night with overnight lows
generally in the mid to upper 70s. One more very hot day is
expected on Sunday before a slight cooling trend to start the
work week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday] VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. Cloud cover early this evening will quickly dissipate.
There is a chance for some light fog closer to sunrise, but
confidence was not high enough to include in any TAFs. Showers and
thunderstorms may be on the increase from recent days, but
timing should be later in the afternoon with a progression from
the east to the west. No VCTS was included at DHN for this reason,
as it may be impacted mainly after 00Z. However, VCTS was included
at all other terminals in the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [158 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday night]...
For much of Sunday, the powerful and hot upper ridge will maintain
control over the region, with temperatures forecast to reach
triple digits once again for many locations. However, by mid to
late afternoon, a trough digging down the eastern seaboard will
push a backdoor cold front into south central Georgia. Along
with the front, expect to see a bit more cloud cover and increased
rain chances, especially northwest of a line from Cross City to
Albany. This should keep temperatures sub-100 in these areas.

However, southwest of the front, the extreme heat will continue.
Heat indices are once again forecast to reach at least 108 during
the afternoon, so have issued a Heat Advisory for these areas.

By Monday, northeasterly flow will increase as high pressure noses
down the eastern seaboard. Expect to see a few storms early in the
day over the southwestern portion of the forecast area. However,
PoPs will be minimal elsewhere as a much drier low-level airmass
moves in. The airmass will be `cooler` as well, with high
temperatures only expected to reach the lower to mid 90s Monday
afternoon.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday, keeping a dry
airmass in place across the region. This will keep rain chances
well below climatology and temperatures near or just above normal.
Temperatures will begin to warm again by late in the week as the
ridge rebuilds aloft. Moisture is not expected to increase
significantly until at least next weekend, so rain chances will
remain relatively low.


.Marine...
Westerly to northwesterly winds will continue over the coastal
waters through Sunday before shifting to the northeast Sunday
night into Monday as a backdoor front moves across the region.
Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory criteria late on Monday
before diminishing during the day on Tuesday. Winds and seas will
decrease further by the middle of the week.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
for the next several days, precluding any hazardous fire weather
conditions.


.Hydrology...
There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend,
however no impacts are expected on river levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76 100  77  94  72 /  10  30  30  20  10
Panama City   80  97  79  92  74 /  20  20  30  30  10
Dothan        75  98  75  92  70 /  10  40  30  20   0
Albany        76  97  74  91  70 /  10  50  30  10   0
Valdosta      73  99  74  92  69 /  10  50  30  10  10
Cross City    75  99  75  93  71 /  20  50  30  20  10
Apalachicola  79  96  79  92  75 /  20  20  30  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Sunday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory from Noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for Brooks-Decatur-
     Early-Grady-Lowndes-Miller-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT






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