Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 301855
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
155 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The upper levels will transition to essentially zonal flow out
ahead of a large, broad, disturbed trough. At the surface, high
pressure sprawling the Eastern Seaboard will continue to provide
the Tri-State area with moist easterly low-level flow. The
increasing dewpoints and low-level cloud cover will continue
moderating overnight lows. Expect upper 30s across southeast
Alabama, increasing to near 50 through the southeast Big Bend of
.SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday night]...
High pressure should remain in control on Sunday with dry
conditions expected. On Monday, an upper level shortwave will
move through the area, but boundary layer moisture return will be
rather anemic with mostly low PoPs. The far northern counties have
the best chance at seeing a light shower on Monday. Temperatures
are expected to be near average during the day and a couple of
degrees above average at night.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
At the start of the period, a deep trough will be digging into the
western states with mainly zonal flow across the southeast. As the
trough continues to deepen by the mid to latter part of the week,
an upper level ridge will build over the southeast Gulf of Mexico
and northwest Caribbean. With this ridge in place, above average
temperatures are expected with mostly dry conditions, but rain
chances may gradually increase towards the end of the period
depending on how much the upper level ridging breaks down and how
far east the trough advances by that time.
[Through 18z Sunday] VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate
through the evening as a low-end MVFR ceiling overspreads the
entire area from east to west. It is likely that all terminals
will remain MVFR through midday tomorrow.
Winds and seas are expected to be fairly low through the early
part of the week as a ridge of high pressure dominates the area.
By the mid to latter part of the week, high pressure is expected
to slide to the east with some increase in southerly winds,
although still remaining below advisory levels.
Increasing moisture will preclude any hazardous fire weather
conditions for the foreseeable future.
QPF amounts through Thursday are expected to be less than 0.25
inches, so we do not expect any major hydro issues for the
upcoming work week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 45 70 49 70 48 / 0 10 10 20 10
Panama City 46 68 53 69 55 / 0 0 10 20 10
Dothan 38 65 47 67 48 / 0 10 10 20 10
Albany 41 66 46 67 46 / 0 10 10 30 10
Valdosta 45 68 49 69 48 / 0 10 10 20 10
Cross City 49 72 50 72 49 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 46 67 53 68 53 / 0 0 10 20 10
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Wx...Harrigan
Short Term/Long Term/Marine...DVD