Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 240139
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An upper low continues to lift northeast across the Carolina
Piedmont with a surface low off the S. Carolina coast. Surface
high pressure is building southwestward on the back side of this
low. A front is stalled just south of the forecast area over the
Gulf of Mexico. The gradient over the area will keep winds up near
10 mph overnight. We do expect another round of low clouds to work
their way into the region from the northeast. Morning lows will
range from around 60 north to near 70 at the coast.
[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions will once again give way to
low clouds moving in from the northeast. We are forecasting mainly
MVFR ceilings. However, IFR cannot be ruled out and are most
likely to occur at VLD.
Winds and seas will continue to increase overnight as the
gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and a trough
of low pressure off the southeast coast. Expect to see only
marginal Small Craft Advisory winds overnight, with conditions
remaining near exercise caution levels on and off through the
remainder of the week.
.Prev Discussion [324 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Upper low currently over the Carolinas is forecast to gradually
weaken and lift northeastward over the next several days. At the
surface, a trough of low pressure will remain in place along the
southeastern U.S. coast. Combined with high pressure centered over
New England, this will keep northeasterly flow in place across the
forecast area through Thursday night. With the trajectory of the
low-level flow, and little upper support for precipitation, expect
most of the rainfall to be concentrated over northeast Florida.
However, showers may occasionally get far enough east to impact
the southeastern Big Bend so have include slight chance to low
chance PoPs through the forecast period. Rain chances may begin to
increase a bit more for this region by late Thursday as deeper
moisture begins to return to the area.
High temperatures will remain near near (or a degree or two below)
normal for Wednesday before warming slightly on Thursday (with
highs in the mid to upper 80s).
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Guidance is in pretty good agreement through the weekend, with
deep moisture gradually increasing across the forecast area from
south to north. The increase in moisture (as well as PoPs) will be
due to a combination of a weak tropical wave approaching from the
southeast and deepening southerly flow across the southeastern
states ahead of a digging trough over the southern Plains. Expect
to see an increase in PoPs south of I-10 on Friday, spreading to
the remainder of the forecast area by Saturday and Sunday. The
weather is likely to remain wet and unsettled into early next week
as the upper trough and associated front slowly moves eastward.
Temperatures should remain near seasonal norms for early fall.
Gradually increasing moisture levels over the next several days
will preclude red flag criteria from being reached. Dispersion
indices could exceed 75 across parts of the Apalachicola National
Forest on Wednesday.
Rainfall totals through Friday will be minimal. More significant
rainfall will be possible over the weekend into early next week.
However, this rain is not expected to have a significant impact on
river levels at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 85 65 87 69 / 10 10 10 10 20
Panama City 67 85 68 86 71 / 10 0 10 10 10
Dothan 59 83 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 0 10
Albany 61 81 62 85 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 61 82 63 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
Cross City 66 86 66 88 69 / 10 20 20 30 30
Apalachicola 67 85 69 86 72 / 10 10 10 10 20
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.