Area Forecast Discussion
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149 FXUS62 KTAE 090608 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 208 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]... The rather wet pattern of the last few days will begin to change today as the upper trough over the area is replaced by a building east/west oriented ridge originating from Texas. The ridge will shunt the deepest moisture towards the eastern border of the forecast area, with lower precipitable water values spreading over the western portion of the area. This should yield lower rain chances for today, especially over the western half of the area. With deep moisture still in place over the Suwannee Valley, PoPs will remain in the likely category for the eastern Big Bend. Temperatures should be near normal this afternoon (highs near 90). .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... The subtropical upper ridge axis will become re-established as it stretches east to west from the western Atlantic across the entire Gulf Coast region. A ribbon of deeper moisture will reside over our easternmost zones on Wednesday where PoPs will be at their highest (40%). Otherwise, with the increasing heights and subsidence drying we will see a notable decrease in convection across the Tri-state region (20-30%). Temps will be a few degrees above normal through the period. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The upper ridge will be in place at the beginning of the extended period. Then, the models continue to show a trend toward shifting the long wave trough axis from the central to the eastern U.S. over the weekend with a slight amplification into the Southeast. The associated cold front will edge toward the region and eventually stall/wash out over the forecast area. While our northwestern zones will see some relief from the humidity and lower PoPs, the southeastern half will not be so lucky with more unsettled conditions keeping PoPs at or above climo from Friday onward. Temps will be close to normal, but dip below normal across our northern zones late in the period. && .Aviation... [Through 06z Wednesday] Satellite imagery and surface obs indicate a significant area of low clouds across SE Alabama and SW Georgia this morning. This will impact KVLD, KABY, and KDHN with IFR conditions at or below airport minimums through sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions will return. Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, with best chances of impacts at KVLD and KTLH. && .Marine... A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through most of the week. This will keep winds and seas well below any headline criteria. && .Fire Weather... No fire weather concerns. && .Hydrology... Recent heavy rainfall across the forecast area has lowered flash flood guidance (FFG) slightly into the 2-3"/hr range in many spots, with a few spots below 2"/hr in the vicinity of Albany. Radar estimates indicate that we have seen values close to these values already today, so we will continue to monitor for isolated flash flooding. The recent rains also now have most area rivers rising. However, it will take quite some time before we need to be concerned about any river flooding. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 89 72 93 73 93 / 50 50 30 10 20 Panama City 88 74 92 76 89 / 40 20 30 10 20 Dothan 90 72 92 72 93 / 30 20 20 10 20 Albany 90 72 93 73 93 / 40 20 20 10 20 Valdosta 88 70 93 71 92 / 50 30 40 10 20 Cross City 88 71 92 71 91 / 60 50 40 20 20 Apalachicola 87 73 90 76 88 / 50 30 20 10 30 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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