Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 160802
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
402 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Fairly tricky PoP fcst across the region today as a rare mid-July
Cold Front swings down from the NW with significantly drier air
following behind it. While the entire Tri-State area should enjoy
this dry air tomorrow, some areas will still have to experience sct
to numerous showers and thunderstorms today, especially early this
morning over the FL Big Bend and Panhandle where the digging upper
level trof out ahead of the cold front is pulling in lots of deep
layer moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico. Both the best chances for
rain and the heaviest rainfall are expected to fall near the coast,
especially from Gulf and Franklin counties extending E-NE towards
the 4 SE Big Bend counties (Madison, Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie).
When all is said and done by later this afternoon, some locations
within this favored region could receive between 1.25" and 2.00" of
rainfall today, while further to the N and E, amounts will drop off
quite quickly, with generally 0.10" to 0.50" over the rest of N FL
(and around Valdosta GA), to less than 0.10" across much of SE AL
and SW and SC GA. High temps today will be greatly dependent on
clouds and rainfall, so we can expect mid to perhaps upper 80s
across N FL to the lower 90s over GA and AL.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Much drier air will begin to arrive tonight into the northwestern
portion of the region and continue progressing into the area
behind an unusual summertime cold front. Precipitable water values
in the global models drop below 1 inch across the northern half of
the region by Thursday morning. While unusually dry, PWs in the
0.8in-0.9in range aren`t quite to record levels for this time of
year. With a drier airmass in place, expect rain chances to be 10
percent or less through at least Friday.
Low temperatures throughout the short term period will be notably
cool for July with lows in portions of SE Alabama dropping into
the lower 60s. The current forecast shows a low temperature by
Friday morning of 65 at Tallahassee. Were this to verify, it would
tie a record low for July 18th set back in 1974.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The drier air and zonal upper level flow will yield a couple dry
days in the extended range forecast before a weakening shortwave
approaches on Sunday and lingers over the Southeast through the
remainder of the forecast period. Expect below average rain
chances to increase to above average beginning Sunday and lasting
through at least Tuesday.
[Through 06Z Thursday]
Outside of some very brief MVFR/IFR level conditions that will be
possible in sct showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at all of the terminals through the upcoming
period. This is likely since most of the showers and storms will
remain to the south of the Taf locations.
Moderate southwest flow will increase today ahead of an
approaching cold front in Apalachee Bay. Cautionary conditions are
likely into this evening. After the front weakens on Thursday,
expect light winds and low seas to return.
Red Flag conditions are clearly not expected across the region today
with ample cloud cover, moisture, and rain chances, and even though
they are not expected on Thursday and Friday, conditions for
controlled burns will be much improved as much drier air moves into
the region behind a rare mid-July cold front.
Aside from isolated 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts in the Southeast
Florida Big Bend today, generally dry conditions will prevail for
the next few days. Current river levels are below flood stage and
this is expected to continue.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 88 67 93 65 94 / 40 10 10 10 10
Panama City 86 71 86 71 91 / 40 10 10 10 10
Dothan 89 65 90 66 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
Albany 91 66 91 66 94 / 30 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 89 67 92 68 93 / 40 20 10 10 10
Cross City 85 70 92 68 93 / 70 40 10 10 10
Apalachicola 85 72 87 70 90 / 60 20 10 10 10