Area Forecast Discussion
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131
FXUS62 KTAE 160121
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front, with
unusually cool, dry air (for the middle of summer) behind it,
from North GA through central MS. There was a pre-frontal trough
across central GA and AL. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed
an unusually deep 500 mb long wave trough over much of the eastern
CONUS. Despite the widespread overturning of the boundary layer
from deep moist convection earlier today, there remains sufficient
potential energy to support additional convection overnight in our forecast
area. The highest PoP will be in GA & AL, nearest enhanced low
level convergence associated with the approaching surface trough.
Storms will be rather isolated elsewhere until dawn, when we expect to
see scattered to numerous showers & thunderstorms developing along
and near the FL coast. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...

Showers and storms should diminish this evening, setting up a
period of VFR conditions. Showers and storms are expected to
redevelop later tonight near the coast and over the Gulf of
Mexico. These may affect TLH and ECP. Additional development is
possible in the afternoon affecting TLH and VLD. Some IFR VIS or
MVFR CIGS are possible in any showers or storms.

&&

.Prev Discussion [300 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A frontal boundary will slowly move into the Tri-State region
Wednesday, eventually pushing through all but our southeast Big
Bend counties by Thursday afternoon. Expect a fair amount of
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday,
primarily confined to an area south and east of a line from
Valdosta to Tallahassee. Though, a short lived shower will be
possible along the immediate front as it moves through the area.
The drier air will result in a couple cool nights, dipping as low
as the middle 60s across southeast Alabama Wednesday night, with
upper 60s everywhere by Thursday night. No rain is expected on
Thursday.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The drier air and zonal upper level flow will yield a couple dry
days in the extended range forecast before a weakening shortwave
approaches on Sunday and lingers over the Southeast through the
remainder of the forecast period. Expect below average rain
chances to increase to above average beginning Sunday and lasting
through at least Tuesday.


.Marine...

A period of Cautionary level winds will will overspread the waters
tonight, into tomorrow as a frontal boundary approaches. By
Wednesday night, the Gulf will once again be dominated by light
winds and low seas into next week.


.Fire Weather...

No concerns.


.Hydrology...

The expected rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches on average through
tomorrow should not have any significant impact on area rivers and
streams. All water levels should remain below flood stage leading
into a few dry days to finish the week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  89  70  92  66 /  30  40  10  10  10
Panama City   76  89  73  90  72 /  50  40   0  10  10
Dothan        71  90  66  91  66 /  40  40   0  10  10
Albany        72  90  67  92  66 /  40  40   0   0  10
Valdosta      72  88  69  92  67 /  40  40  10  10  10
Cross City    74  88  73  92  70 /  60  70  20  10  10
Apalachicola  76  88  74  90  72 /  60  60  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN







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