Area Forecast Discussion
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149
FXUS62 KTAE 090608
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
208 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The rather wet pattern of the last few days will begin to change
today as the upper trough over the area is replaced by a building
east/west oriented ridge originating from Texas. The ridge will
shunt the deepest moisture towards the eastern border of the
forecast area, with lower precipitable water values spreading over
the western portion of the area. This should yield lower rain
chances for today, especially over the western half of the area.
With deep moisture still in place over the Suwannee Valley, PoPs
will remain in the likely category for the eastern Big Bend.
Temperatures should be near normal this afternoon (highs near 90).

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The subtropical upper ridge axis will become re-established as it
stretches east to west from the western Atlantic across the entire
Gulf Coast region. A ribbon of deeper moisture will reside over our
easternmost zones on Wednesday where PoPs will be at their highest
(40%). Otherwise, with the increasing heights and subsidence drying
we will see a notable decrease in convection across the Tri-state
region (20-30%). Temps will be a few degrees above normal through
the period.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The upper ridge will be in place at the beginning of the extended
period. Then, the models continue to show a trend toward shifting
the long wave trough axis from the central to the eastern U.S.
over the weekend with a slight amplification into the Southeast.
The associated cold front will edge toward the region and
eventually stall/wash out over the forecast area. While our
northwestern zones will see some relief from the humidity and
lower PoPs, the southeastern half will not be so lucky with more
unsettled conditions keeping PoPs at or above climo from Friday
onward. Temps will be close to normal, but dip below normal across
our northern zones late in the period.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Wednesday] Satellite imagery and surface obs
indicate a significant area of low clouds across SE Alabama and SW
Georgia this morning. This will impact KVLD, KABY, and KDHN with
IFR conditions at or below airport minimums through sunrise.
Thereafter, VFR conditions will return. Afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible Tuesday afternoon, with best chances of impacts
at KVLD and KTLH.

&&

.Marine...

A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through
most of the week. This will keep winds and seas well below any
headline criteria.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

Recent heavy rainfall across the forecast area has lowered flash
flood guidance (FFG) slightly into the 2-3"/hr range in many
spots, with a few spots below 2"/hr in the vicinity of Albany.
Radar estimates indicate that we have seen values close to these
values already today, so we will continue to monitor for isolated
flash flooding. The recent rains also now have most area rivers
rising. However, it will take quite some time before we need to be
concerned about any river flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  72  93  73  93 /  50  50  30  10  20
Panama City   88  74  92  76  89 /  40  20  30  10  20
Dothan        90  72  92  72  93 /  30  20  20  10  20
Albany        90  72  93  73  93 /  40  20  20  10  20
Valdosta      88  70  93  71  92 /  50  30  40  10  20
Cross City    88  71  92  71  91 /  60  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  87  73  90  76  88 /  50  30  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...WOOL




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