Area Forecast Discussion
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461
FXUS62 KTAE 240832
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
432 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
It finally appears that our late August Heat Wave is coming to an
end, as the Upper Level Ridge responsible for it slowly shifts to
the west and allows a band of potentially strong thunderstorms to
propagate from NE to SW across the Tri-State area late this
afternoon and evening. Although current local soundings are not too
favorable for strong to severe storms (with plenty of warm air
extending from 650 mb through 300 mb at TAE), there has been some
cooling between the 850 mb and 650 mb layer, with PWATs still up
around 1.85". Additionally, 00 UTC soundings further upstream at
Charleston, SC (CHS) indicate a much more unstable environment with
PWATs around 1.90" which could make for a fairly interesting late
afternoon and evening across the Tri-State region, as temps once
again soar into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees for one more
day, which could help be the catalyst for some impressive
convection. One indication of this from the CHS sounding is greater
than a 4200 ft difference in the freezing level (16,252 ft) and the
Wet-Bulb Zero (12,050 ft). Although this Heat Wave is coming to an
end, today will be the last day of oppressive heat and humidity
across the region, with all but a few of the northern GA zones NOT
included in the Heat Advisory. Also, it was yet another close call
near the coast with maximum Heat Indices topping out at 112 degrees,
we were finally able to avoid the issuance of a smaller Excessive
Heat Warning, but would not at all be surprised to see a few
locations reach or exceed 113 yet again.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A break from the heat will begin in the short term period as a
weak frontal boundary moves in from the northeast. This boundary
(along with the westward retreat of the upper level ridge) should
continue to keep showers and storms continuing across the region
tonight. In fact, a few of these storms could be strong in the
evening. Expect convection to move offshore after midnight and
possibly linger into Monday.

By Monday, drier air moves into the region as high pressure builds
across the Mid Atlantic States. We will have a break from the heat
and humidity of the past few days, though highs will still be in
the lower 90s.

On Tuesday, the east-northeasterly flow will increase between the
surface ridge across the Mid Atlantic and a tropical system moving
east of the Bahamas. This may provide just enough moisture for a
few isolated showers late in the day across the Florida Big Bend,
though the bulk of the region will benefit from drier air
continuing to spread in from the Carolinas.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday, keeping a dry
airmass in place across the region. This will keep rain chances
well below climatology and temperatures near or just above normal.
Temperatures will begin to warm again by late in the week as the
ridge rebuilds aloft. Moisture is not expected to increase
significantly until at least next weekend, so rain chances will
remain relatively low.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] VFR conditions are forecast through much of
the period except for VLD where a late evening tstm dropped just
enough rainfall to drop the Vis down to IFR levels at 07Z, with a
possible period if LIFR Vis before the early morning hours are
through. Elsewhere, kept conditions at VFR levels until the
potential line of strong Tstms begins to move from NE to SW across
the terminals from the late afternoon to the early evening hours.
For this package, have VCTS beginning at all of the Taf sites this
afternoon, with convective tempos at TLH and VLD, with a Prob30 at
ECP. This noted, ABY and DHN may need upgrading at a later time
today once confidence is increased.

&&

.Marine...
After a period of light winds and lows seas today, increasing
northeasterly flow tonight will reach cautionary levels on Monday.
As the gradient further tightens on Tuesday, a period of advisory
conditions will be possible. By Wednesday, winds will diminish
considerably as a weak high pressure builds over the area.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With plenty of heat and humidity, no Red Flag conditions are
expected anytime in the near future.

&&

.Hydrology...
After scattered storms today, expect a stretch of dry conditions
through much of this week. As a result, river stages will remain
low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee  100  76  93  71  93 /  40  50  10  10  10
Panama City   95  79  92  74  91 /  30  50  20  10  10
Dothan        99  74  93  68  92 /  50  40  10   0  10
Albany        98  74  91  69  91 /  60  30  10   0  10
Valdosta      99  73  91  69  93 /  60  40  10   0  10
Cross City    99  73  92  71  92 /  60  50  10  10  10
Apalachicola  95  80  91  77  90 /  30  50  20  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-
     Thomas-Tift-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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