Area Forecast Discussion
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886
FXUS62 KTAE 260251
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1051 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Little substantive change to the forecast was necessary this
evening. High pressure will keep most of the area rain-free. KJAX
radar shows some showers coming in off the Atlantic in the strong
northeast flow. These typically do not survive all the way to our
zones, but we did keep in a 10 PoP for our eastern zones just in
case on makes it. Isolated convection is expected to develop over
the marine area later tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds 15 to 20
MPH will be possible again tomorrow, primarily in the afternoon
hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [303 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The airmass over our forecast area, especially in the mid
troposphere, will be warm and very dry- an environment that`s not
favorable for deep moist convection. We can`t completely rule out
a few showers in some areas, especially east and southeast of
Tallahassee, where isolated, relatively shallow showers
(associated with mesoscale perturbations in the easterly flow)
are possible. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s, lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

After a dry day on Thursday, The GFS and ECMWF forecast the return
of a moisture-rich boundary layer on Friday and Saturday as the deep
layer flow shifts from east to south. However, neither model shows
much in the way of Q-G forcing with this return in moisture, and the
mid layer tropospheric moisture isn`t that impressive. This would
suggest near climo PoPs (peaking around 40% at each site`s
locally-favored diurnal peak). The GFS and ECMWF diverge a bit
Sunday and Monday, as the GFS forecasts plentiful deep layer
moisture (and even some weak Q-G forcing) over our region as a
series of short wave troughs translate eastward over the Gulf
Coast states. The ECMWF rebuilds a 500 mb high (and dry, sinking
air aloft) over our forecast area, which would result in below-
climo PoPs and above-climo high temperatures. The GFS hasn`t been
very consistent from run to run. Additionally, we`re heading into
the climatological transition to lower PoPs. Our forecast is a
blend of the two solutions, with a little more weight given to the
drier ECMWF solution.


.Marine...

The latest NWP guidance is consistent in forecasting marginal
advisory conditions across much of our marine area overnight, with
a gradual slackening off of winds and seas on Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...

Although drier than recent days, relative humidity levels over the
next several days will not fall to critical thresholds. Thus, Red
Flag conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

With little to no rain expected over the next few days, river stages
and flows should continue to run below normal.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  93  71  94  70 /  10  10  20  20  10
Panama City   73  92  75  92  75 /  10  10  20  20  10
Dothan        66  92  69  93  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        66  92  68  93  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      69  92  66  93  67 /  10  20  10  20  10
Cross City    71  92  69  93  69 /  10  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  74  91  76  90  76 /  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/GOULD






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