Area Forecast Discussion
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305 FXUS62 KTAE 111918 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Convection is developing across the Florida Panhandle and into the western Florida Big Bend. Most of this activity is developing just ahead of the sea breeze front supported by light southeast flow. Expect storm development through the afternoon and into the early evening to remain largely focused within this zone, though an isolated storm is possible across Southern Alabama and into Southwestern Georgia. Storms should dissipate an hour or two after sunset with mostly clear skies overnight. The exception to this will be over the marine area where storms will likely develop after midnight. Temperatures will continue to be warm, generally in the lower 70s inland with mid 70s at the coast. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... The tropical wave trying to get itself organized off the east coast of FL north of the Bahamas will likely not have much success as it tracks west-southwestward across South FL and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday evening. The wave will pass west of our longitude on Saturday. Meanwhile, the front over the Ohio Valley will push southeastward into central GA and southern AL Saturday night. Sensible weather on Friday will be similar to today with the upper ridge largely suppressing convection and allowing temps to reach the lower to mid 90s. Our position to the east of the tropical wave and the approaching front will increase PoPs for Saturday with highest PoPs near the front. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... The elongated east-west oriented ridge axis will still be in place at the start of the period. However, it will begin to break down early in the work week as a long wave trough begins to amplify into the Southeast. This trough will help push the front currently draped across the Ohio Valley toward the Gulf Coast. It is still uncertain just how far south the front will make it before stalling. There appears to be model consensus that there will be enough energy upstream in the long wave trough to induce weak waves on the front that will help inhibit its southward progress. The proximity of the boundary through much of the period will result in unsettled conditions with above normal PoPs for the most part. Max temps will correspondingly be generally below normal from Monday onward.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period with thunderstorms in vicinity this afternoon of TLH/ECP. Toward daybreak on Friday, MVFR vsbys will be possible at DHN/ECP/VLD before VFR conditions return for all sites by 13z.
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&& .Marine...
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A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place. This will keep winds and seas well below any headline criteria.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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No fire weather concerns at least through the middle of next week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall totals over the next few days are expected to be below normal and not have an impact on area rivers. However, QPF is expected to increase next work week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 94 74 93 72 / 10 20 20 40 30 Panama City 76 91 77 90 76 / 10 20 20 40 30 Dothan 72 94 73 92 72 / 10 20 20 50 30 Albany 73 95 73 92 72 / 10 30 20 50 30 Valdosta 71 94 72 92 71 / 10 30 20 40 20 Cross City 71 93 71 92 70 / 10 20 20 30 20 Apalachicola 75 90 76 88 76 / 10 20 20 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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