Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 232124

424 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A stationary boundary will linger along the Gulf Coast. This
afternoon the stationary boundary is located along the
Florida/Georgia line extending to the Gulf Coast of Florida. Rain
chances will begin to increase this evening with the best chance
of rain in the early morning hours. Most of the CWA will be on the
cool side of the stationary boundary tonight. That means
overrunning conditions with rain and persistent cloud cover.
Patchy fog is possible in the early morning hours. There will be a
steep temp gradient tonight as the front lingers over the region.
Lows will be in the lower 40s for northwestern portions of the
CWA and lower 50s for southeast portions of the CWA.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Stationary frontal boundary will remain in place along the Gulf
Coast on Tuesday as the surface high pressure to the north
rapidly weakens. Showers will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period as a jet streak passes north of the forecast area. However,
cyclogenesis occurs off the southeast coast during the day, the
focus for precip will shift quickly east with limited rainfall
coverage expected by the afternoon. The cooler airmass to the
north of the front will hold temperatures in the lower to mid 50s
across the northern and western portion of the forecast area, with
upper 50s and lower 60s to the south of the boundary in the Big
Bend. Highs right along the boundary will be tricky with any
undulations having a significant impact on temperatures.

By Wednesday, a shortwave ejecting from the southwestern states
will force low pressure to develop over the western Gulf. The low
is forecast to track just offshore and then into the southeastern
Big Bend Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Divergence aloft
coupled with strong isentropic lift (thanks to a 50-60 knots 850mb
jet) will provide plenty of forcing for widespread rain on
Wednesday. A stripe of widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals are
likely somewhere, with current indications favoring the Big Bend
into South Central Georgia for the heaviest rainfall.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Seasonably cool and dry weather will be on tap to start the
extended period as the previously mentioned system exits the
region. The upper flow along the Gulf Coast is forecast to return
to a zonal configuration pretty quickly behind this system,
keeping the bulk of the arctic air confined well north of the
area. Should see a warming trend kick in by the weekend as heights
begin to rise and high temperatures reach back into the mid to
upper 60s.


[Through 18Z Tuesday] Conditions will continue to improve this
afternoon. VFR conditions are likely by late afternoon. Conditions
will deteriorate once again around midnight due to a stationary
boundary lingering over the region. Steady rain is very likely
overnight and in the morning hours. IFR ceilings are likely
overnight and patchy fog is a possibility with abundant low level


Winds will gradually diminish through the overnight hours as a
cold front stalls over the waters. Conditions will remain below
headline levels until Wednesday, when winds and seas will increase
ahead of a low pressure system moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will build in behind the low pressure, keeping winds
and seas elevated into the weekend.


.Fire Weather...
No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next
several days due to a series of frontal systems that will bring
rain to the area Tuesday and Wednesday.


On Wednesday, a low pressure system is poised to bring moderate
to heavy rainfall to the area with widespread totals in the 2-3"
range and isolated higher totals possible. This will cause several
of our area rivers to rise into action stage. At this time,
flooding is not expected, but if widespread rainfall amounts
exceed 3 inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek and Ochlockonee,
Aucilla, and upper Withlacoochee River basins could approach minor
flood stage.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   50  58  47  55  45 /  60  60  30  90  80
Panama City   48  54  45  56  45 /  50  50  40  90  60
Dothan        42  50  41  45  37 /  70  60  30  90  60
Albany        43  53  41  48  38 /  70  70  20  90  70
Valdosta      49  56  46  56  44 /  70  70  30  90  80
Cross City    53  62  49  62  53 /  30  30  30  70  80
Apalachicola  52  59  49  61  45 /  40  50  40  90  70


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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