Area Forecast Discussion
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487 FXUS62 KTAE 150111 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 911 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Regional 00Z analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary across our forecast area from Destin, FL to Bainbridge, GA to northeastern Berrien county, GA. Convection along this front has been aided by the seabreeze boundary, helping to redevelop showers and thunderstorms along the line where convection would have otherwise started dieing down for the night. This, along with the slow southwestward propagation of storms this evening, is causing some training of storms over Seminole and Decatur counties in GA. This area would be the most likely area to see localized flooding if the storms continue through the night, fortunately however local radar imagery is showing storms in this area are finally start to dissipate. Another line of dissipating thunderstorms is in our northern Georgia counties. Once convection dies down around midnight, patchy fog may develop in our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday] Low clouds and restricted visibility are possible once again tonight, primarily at DHN, ABY, and VLD. Cigs could approach airport minimums around sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through midday on Monday when conditions may fluctuate between VFR and MVFR as thunderstorms develop across the area again.
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&& .Prev Discussion [326 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... The low-mid level flow (1000-500mb) will gradually veer from the east to the south overnight and into Monday morning as the deep layer ridge over the Gulf coast begins to erode and become focused off the Southeast Atlantic coast. The changing flow pattern should allow for a surge of increase moisture by Monday morning with PWATs increasing into the 2.0" to 2.1" range. This will also place our forecast area on the nose of a southerly max in 850mb moisture transport from 12-18Z Monday. Convection-allowing models (CAM) generally show a rapid increase in convective coverage during that same time frame, and we increased PoPs above model guidance south of Interstate-10 to account for that. By afternoon, showers and storms should spread into the rest of the area, and we have 50-60% PoPs in most locations. With the possibility of morning rain and cloud cover in the Florida Panhandle, we reduced highs into the upper 80s in those areas, with 90-92 degree highs elsewhere. A brief lull is expected on Monday Night, although with our area remaining in the axis of maximum low-level moisture transport it is conceivable that isolated to scattered storms could persist during the overnight hours. For Tuesday, the moisture levels remain similar with PWATs around 2.1" to 2.2" but we should see increased large-scale forcing. A digging, low-amplitude shortwave trough should be approaching, with the exit region of a curved 60-70 knot upper level jet streak becoming positioned over the area as well. With abundant moisture and increasing forcing for ascent, we bumped PoPs up to 70% and are expecting fairly widespread convective coverage. For the entire short term period there will be a threat of locally heavy rain and isolated flooding given the abundant moisture and slow-moving storms. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... As the upper level trough deepens and moves south, the stalled frontal boundary will move off to the southeast bringing in slightly drier air. PoPs will be highest Wednesday then will be in the 10 to 30% range for the rest of the period. We will see a taste of cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. .Marine... Winds should generally be around 10 knots or less and seas should be 3 feet or less for much of the forecast period with a relatively weak surface pressure pattern. However, a building surface high pressure ridge along the eastern seaboard from Thursday into Friday should create a pattern that is typically favorable for nocturnal increases in easterly winds. Therefore, we are expecting an increase in winds and seas by next weekend. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected through at least mid week. .Hydrology... While heavy rain is possible the next several days, all area rivers are below flood stage so river flooding should not be a concern. However, isolated flooding of low-lying or urban areas cannot be ruled out, mainly through Tuesday evening.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 91 72 89 71 / 20 60 30 70 40 Panama City 76 87 75 87 73 / 30 60 30 70 50 Dothan 72 90 72 89 69 / 40 60 40 70 30 Albany 72 92 71 91 70 / 50 60 40 70 30 Valdosta 72 92 71 90 70 / 20 60 30 70 50 Cross City 72 91 71 89 71 / 30 40 30 60 50 Apalachicola 77 87 76 86 75 / 20 60 30 60 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON

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