Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 141414
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1014 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2014
...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The cold front is currently bisecting our forecast area from
Apalachicola to Eufaula. Just ahead of the front, a line of
thunderstorms continues to push eastward with scattered storms
moving south to north ahead of the front. The main severe weather
threat continues to be damaging straight line winds, with a few
isolated tornadoes possible. The flash flood threat will come from
the potential for training convection from south to north out ahead
of the main squall line.
Behind the main squall line, brief light precipitation will be
possible, but cooler, drier air will move in behind the front. Highs
today will be around 80.
[Through 12Z Wednesday] MVFR-IFR conditions will occur with
thunderstorms along and ahead of the main front now bisecting the
forecast area from east to west. Vicinity showers may linger briefly
behind the front, but VFR conditions will return quickly behind the
front. Gusty winds are expected today until a little after sunset.
.Prev Discussion [239 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The cold front should be near TLH by 00Z Wednesday and completely
east of the area by 06-08Z. Even at this short time range, there are
timing differences of a few hours among the models. Evening PoPs
will range from categorical over the southeast FL Big Bend counties
to chance over the rest of the Big Bend and Southwest GA. A much
drier and cooler air mass will settle in behind the front to bring
some classic October weather to the region for Wednesday and
Thursday. Afternoon highs will actually be a couple of degrees below
normal, around 80 in FL with upper 70s to the north. Overnight lows
Wednesday night will drop several degrees below normal ranging from
the mid 50s at the coast to the upper 40s across the normally cooler
areas west of an ABY to TLH line.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Dry weather is expected through the period with high pressure in
the wake of the strong cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures will
be within a few degrees of average for this time of year.
Small craft advisory conditions will continue today, but end with
the passage of a cold front. Moderate west to northwest winds will
then persist below headline criteria through Thursday with lighter
winds arriving for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds over
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east
later today and this evening as a strong cold front pushes through.
A cooler and much drier airmass will settle into the area for the
remainder of the week but Red Flag conditions are not expected.
Radar estimates and rain gages indicates that 1-2 inch rainfall
totals have been common from the western FL Big Bend west across the
FL Panhandle and north into Southeast AL. However, there have been a
few bands of higher amounts in the 5-7 inch range. These areas are
primed and any additional rainfall (which is expected) could very
well result in flash flooding. The most vulnerable counties are
southeast Walton, Washington, eastern Homes, western Jackson, Gulf,
western Franklin and southern Liberty. An additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall will be common across the area with locally higher amounts
up to 5 inches or so. The flash flood watch will remain in place.
While some of the flashier streams and creeks could see some sharp
rises, flooding of main stem rivers is not anticipated.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 83 55 80 50 80 / 100 30 10 0 0
Panama City 80 58 79 56 79 / 100 10 0 0 0
Dothan 80 52 77 49 78 / 100 10 0 0 0
Albany 80 54 78 50 79 / 100 20 10 0 0
Valdosta 82 58 79 50 79 / 100 90 10 0 0
Cross City 84 64 81 51 80 / 90 90 10 0 0
Apalachicola 82 58 78 55 79 / 90 20 0 0 0
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
Calhoun-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Baker-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee
Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.