Area Forecast Discussion
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453 FXUS62 KTAE 170037 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 837 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Rainfall totals today have been around 1-2" for the most part, with a few spots receiving 2-4" and a whopping 6-9" in the Holmes-Washington county area. As a cold front pushes south into our forecast area through the night, ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area will move south as well. The most rain overnight will likely be in the eastern Big Bend, south central Georgia, and over our offshore waters. With less instability now that it`s night time, most of these showers won`t be sustained for as long as they were during the daytime, but with high moisture still in place ahead of the front, we may get enough rain in a few spots to cause localized flooding concerns overnight. Lows tonight will be cooler, in the upper 60s to around 70.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Thursday] MVFR-IFR restrictions will be possible again tonight at DHN, ABY, and VLD, with IFR conditions more likely at VLD where soil moisture is high from recent rainfall. By 15Z, VFR conditions should return and prevail through the remainder of the period.
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&& .Prev Discussion [350 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... A weak frontal boundary will move through the region on Wednesday bringing some much needed drier air to the region, though very little in the way of cooler air. As this drier air overspreads the region through Thursday, expect rain chances to drop to near zero with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected, though the big story will be the drop in humidity. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... By Friday, the mid level pattern begins to stagnate as models show an upper low cutting off across Northeastern Florida as a weak ridge builds across the Mid Atlantic States. This type of pattern will keep partly to mostly skies in place through the weekend with moderate easterly flow. Low end rain chances can be expected, especially across the eastern portions of the region. Late Sunday and into Monday the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with a deepening trough across the Eastern US and a large ridge across the western states. As this pattern amplifies, the models diverge in whether a cold front will make its way into the Gulf Coast States and possibly beyond. The 16/12z Euro stalls the boundary across our region as the main mid and upper level support lifts out into New England whereas the 16/00z and 16/12z GFS had some degree of frontal passage late in the period. Climatology in late September would argue against a front clearing the forecast area, so will lean closer on a solution supported by the latest Euro for late in the period. .Marine... After a brief increase in winds this afternoon, relatively light winds are expected across the marine area through the remainder of the week. Winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate levels on Saturday as high pressure builds down the Atlantic seaboard. .Fire Weather... Soil moisture and relative humidity will be high this week, keeping red flag concerns at a minimum. .Hydrology... Slow moving storms will continue to deliver locally heavy rainfall across the region through today. Localized rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches could cause minor flooding of low lying areas. This rainfall will cause some rises of the smaller creeks and streams, though all rivers should remain well below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 70 91 69 91 68 / 50 10 10 10 10 Panama City 74 91 71 90 70 / 50 10 10 10 10 Dothan 69 90 65 88 65 / 30 10 10 10 10 Albany 69 91 66 88 65 / 40 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 69 90 66 91 66 / 60 20 10 10 10 Cross City 70 89 70 92 69 / 60 50 10 10 10 Apalachicola 73 87 74 88 73 / 50 20 10 10 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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