Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 120128
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 PM EDT Sat May 11 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
With the main MCS now well east of the CWA, dropped PoPs to 20 to
30% across the board. The highest PoPs are over the northern Gulf and
where another (but very weak) MCS is traversing our Coastal
Waters. The 20% PoPs over land are to account for the weak Cold
Front to our NW where an isolated shower or storm may hold
together overnight into our area. Otherwise, only minor tweaks to
the current fcst were made.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The cold front will cross the area on Sunday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the boundary.
While the best threat for strong storms will be over the FL
Peninsula, we cannot completely rule out a strong storm over the
southeastern FL Big Bend counties based on expected CAPE and shear
profiles. Another front will sweep across the area late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night bringing and end to rain chances for the
remainder of this period. This reinforcing of cooler air will send
temps tumbling back into the 40s along and north of a line from VLD
to TLH to ECP. The northern tier of zones will see mid 40s. Monday`s
highs will peak in the upper 70s. Monday night will be the coldest
night of the period for the FL Big Bend and South Central GA where
mid 40s will be possible. A few record lows may be in jeopardy on
these two mornings.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
The period will begin with an upper level trough pulling away to the
northeast and short wave ridging building in from the west. The
upper ridge axis will reach our zones on Wednesday and then be
shunted to the east by the next trough that will impact the area
late in the week. The GFS is more diffuse than the Euro with the
energy in this system and also more progressive. At the surface,
high pressure will drop south across the area on Tuesday and then
remain in place just south of the area through the period. This
ridge will work to hold off any would be shower activity until
Friday and Saturday when a front will approach from the north. Look
for 20-30 PoPs on those days. Max temps will be near normal (mid
80s) through the period. Overnight lows will be a bit below normal
Tuesday night and then return to normal after that time.
[Through 00 UTC Monday] The threat for any significant rainfall or
thunderstorms has come to an end. That being said, category
restrictions will lower through the night. Low ceilings (mostly
IFR) will dominate all terminals by dawn, with possible visibility
reductions at KTLH, but most likely at KVLD. Restrictions will
clear to VFR from west to east starting at dawn, with VFR expected
at all terminals by midday.
Onshore winds will shift to offshore behind a cold front tonight.
After a second cold frontal passage Sunday evening, winds will pick
up to cautionary to marginal advisory levels. Winds will begin to
subside once again by Monday afternoon. Winds will become onshore
again by Tuesday afternoon and remain so into Thursday.
Drier air will be moving into the region during the next couple of
days after a cloudy and wet beginning to the weekend. No Fire
Weather concerns are expected on Sunday, but with potential minimum
Relative Humidities falling into the Upper teens to lower 20s on
Monday, a Fire Weather Watch may be needed for parts of the Florida
Big Bend and Panhandle if ERC values are high enough.
With the MCS largely tracking across the Gulf of Mexico, we no
longer foresee any possibility for problems on areas streams and
creeks over the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 66 83 49 79 45 / 20 20 10 0 0
Panama City 67 83 55 78 56 / 30 10 10 0 0
Dothan 62 80 47 79 51 / 20 10 0 0 0
Albany 62 80 46 77 49 / 20 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 64 82 49 77 46 / 20 20 10 0 0
Cross City 66 83 56 80 46 / 30 30 10 0 0
Apalachicola 67 81 56 77 51 / 30 20 10 0 0