Area Forecast Discussion
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260 FXUS62 KTAE 172336 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 736 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Isolated convection is expected to rapidly diminish this evening as drier air continues to move into the area. Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 60s across the north to the lower 70s at the beaches.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Friday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period at the terminals. There is a chance for a brief period of reduced visibility due to patchy fog for a few hours around sunrise.
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&& .Prev Discussion [314 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... Drier air will continue to move into the region on Thursday. This will yield another mainly dry day across the region with temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. By Friday, an upper low will begin to cut off across NE Florida. As a weak surface reflection develops beneath this feature, the gradient will tighten between this low and high pressure across the Mid Atlantic. As low level easterly flow strengthens across the Western Atlantic and into our region, low level moisture will increase leading to a period of stratus across the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast area. Most of the model guidance this cycle has responded with 40 to 60 percent pops across the eastern counties. For now, 60 percent seems a bit high, but will trend the forecast pops for Friday and into Friday night upward. Due to extensive cloud cover, temperatures on Friday will be cooler, generally in the mid 80s. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday. Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will likely return. .Marine... Generally light offshore flow will continue into Friday before shifting to easterly as high pressure builds down the east coast. Moderate winds of 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the weekend before decreasing on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes. .Fire Weather... Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red Flag levels through the period. .Hydrology... While rainfall yesterday was not sufficiently widespread to result in any significant rises on area rivers, localized heavy rainfall amounts did result in some notable rises on the smaller creeks and streams across the Florida Panhandle. With generally light rainfall amounts expected through the weekend, streamflows will be in recession for the next few days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 69 92 68 90 68 / 20 0 10 40 20 Panama City 71 90 72 88 72 / 10 10 10 20 20 Dothan 66 89 67 89 67 / 10 0 10 20 10 Albany 66 90 68 89 67 / 10 10 10 40 20 Valdosta 67 91 68 88 67 / 10 10 10 50 30 Cross City 69 93 70 84 68 / 10 0 10 50 20 Apalachicola 73 88 73 85 72 / 10 10 10 40 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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