Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
705 FXUS62 KTAE 201537 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1137 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ALOFT CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND NW MEXICO WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SERN CONUS AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THIS IS TRAPPING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HELPED PRODUCE LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. AS THESE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT, HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE LAND AS RAIN CHANCES ENTER FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PART OF A LARGE SWATH OF CLOUD COVER CAUSED BY THE JET BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY] VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AND MVFR-IFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 08Z...WHEN MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PREV DISCUSSION [357 AM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]... A FRONTAL ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD UNTIL A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTS FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. UNTIL THIS OCCURS, RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SEA BREEZE INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN THE FLORIDA ZONES, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED IN. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE ADDED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS ARE INCREASED TO 80 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TAPERING DOWN TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT OVER THE MARINE AREA. RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. .LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]... WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE STORM SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER, THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH (GFS) OR REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE, WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA (EURO). FOR NOW, WILL KEEP POPS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. WHILE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH, THESE PREDICTED NUMBERS ARE STILL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER WARMUP SHOULD START BY THURSDAY. .MARINE... A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF RATHER LOW WINDS AND SEAS EVEN WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH. .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED CHANCES OF RAIN BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS NEARING 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME RIVER POINTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO APPROACH OR EXCEED ACTION STAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
TALLAHASSEE 84 65 83 65 79 / 30 20 50 50 60 PANAMA CITY 77 66 78 65 72 / 20 20 30 60 60 DOTHAN 81 63 81 61 75 / 50 30 30 60 80 ALBANY 79 63 80 61 72 / 30 30 30 50 80 VALDOSTA 83 65 83 63 78 / 20 20 40 40 80 CROSS CITY 83 64 85 64 78 / 10 10 30 20 40 APALACHICOLA 76 66 79 67 71 / 10 20 30 50 50
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE/MERRIFIELD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.