Area Forecast Discussion
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267 FXUS62 KTAE 150137 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 837 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Yesterday`s cold front has brought the CWA another shot of dry air and below normal temps. Clear skies and light winds will allow for temperatures to drop into the 30s for most of the region. Looking at this evenings guidance, saw no reason to expand the freeze warning, and the current forecast is on track. The freeze warning is in effect for most locations away from the coast and northwest of a line through Tallahassee and Valdosta (see bottom of AFD for counties warned). Locations southeast of this line will see temperatures in the upper 30s or near 40. With the winds not going completely calm, we don`t expect a hard freeze. However, areas of patchy frost in, and near, the freeze warning are possible.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Sunday]... VFR conditions are forecast to prevail for all terminals through tonight and tomorrow. Throughout the TAF period, northerly winds will veer and are forecast to be out of the east around 5-10kts by tomorrow evening. Clear skies will prevail.
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&& .Prev Discussion [408 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... A brief warm-up is on tap for the weekend as the center of high pressure slides to the Carolinas and the low-level flow shifts to the east and then southeast. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 50s in the north and west to the mid 60s in the south and east. By Sunday, highs will recover into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Deep moisture will begin to increase late on Sunday as the next potent shortwave digs into the Southern Plains and surface low pressure develops along the central Gulf Coast. Expect a few showers to make it into the western portion of the forecast area by late Sunday afternoon, with the coverage increasing quickly Sunday night as a leading shortwave exits the base of the trough and lifts northeast across the area. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... Active weather will be ongoing at the beginning of the period Monday morning as a strong cold front moves across the forecast area. Guidance is showing a quick surge of 60+ dewpoints into the Panhandle and Big Bend during the morning hours, helping to generate some surface-based CAPE near the coast. With deep layer shear near 50 knots and 35 to 40 knot low-level jet, an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out early in the day. Otherwise, expect widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of and just behind the front. The rain will end from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Much colder air will rush into the area Tuesday night, with temperatures remaining well below normal through Thursday, before moderation kicks in at the end of the week. Widespread freezes are likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with hard freezes possible as well. .Marine... Winds and seas will diminish through Saturday before increasing again Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The onshore winds Sunday and Sunday night will become offshore Monday afternoon with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing behind the front. The strong offshore winds will continue through Tuesday before diminishing Tuesday night. .Fire Weather... A gradual moistening trend will preclude any hazardous fire weather conditions over the next several days. .Hydrology... Dry conditions will persist through early Sunday before rain moves into the area late Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with this frontal passage. This may cause some minor rises on area rivers and streams. However, with base flows at low levels, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 36 63 44 70 57 / 0 0 10 10 50 Panama City 39 61 47 69 62 / 0 0 10 20 70 Dothan 29 58 40 67 55 / 0 0 10 20 90 Albany 30 60 39 69 54 / 0 0 10 20 70 Valdosta 35 61 45 69 55 / 0 0 10 10 50 Cross City 41 66 49 75 57 / 0 0 10 10 40 Apalachicola 43 61 49 69 63 / 0 0 10 10 50 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes- Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Gulf. GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill- Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift-Turner- Worth. AL...Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP/DOBBS SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...LAMERS/DOBBS MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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